Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to the United
Nations this week shines a spotlight on Iran as a growing menace to
international security-from its burgeoning nuclear program to its
sponsorship of international terrorism to its support of the
insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. With the failure of diplomacy
to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, major powers should work
outside of the U.N. framework to impose tough economic sanctions on
Tehran.
The Iranian Threat
While all options should be kept on the table, including military
action, it appears that the preferred path-peaceful diplomacy-is
making no headway in addressing the threat Iran poses to peace and
stability. Tehran continues to thumb its nose at the concerns of
the international community.
Making matters worse, China and Russia-both permanent members of
the United Nations Security Council-are disinclined to take a
harder line with the intransigent Iranians. Economic interests
might explain their reluctance to check Iran's ambitions in the
Middle East and beyond. China will invest $25 billion in the
Iranian oil and gas sector over the next 25 years; Russia sees Iran
as both a major arms sales client and a potential member of its
proposed natural gas cartel.
Growing Support for Sanctions
An idea long advocated by The Heritage Foundation is gaining
traction with some major powers, especially in Europe: coming
together outside the U.N. framework to impose tough economic
sanctions on Iran.
France, the United Kingdom, and some other European nations-in
concert with the United States-have recently expressed a
willingness to impose punitive economic sanctions on the Iranian
regime in response to its protracted unwillingness to comprise on
the nuclear issue.
Just last week, French President Nicolas Sarkozy accused Iran of
seeking nuclear weapons and advocated "stronger sanctions." He
said, "[Iranian nuclear capability] is unacceptable and I tell the
French people it is unacceptable."
Unfortunately, Germany, one of Iran's biggest trading partners,
is reluctant to cut financial and commercial ties with Iran, even
as its efforts have come to naught as a leader of the European
Union's nuclear negotiating team, along with France and the
U.K.
Why Sanctions Could Work
While there is no guarantee of success, restrictions on trade and
foreign investment by major economic powers could give Tehran pause
concerning its pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for
terrorism and the Afghan and Iraqi insurgencies.
In fact, Iran had the most advanced economy in the Middle East
at the time of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Since then, Iran's
economy-in spite of oil and gas revenues-has been sorely
mismanaged, resulting in both double-digit inflation and
unemployment.
The sputtering Iranian economy has increased social pressure on
the regime. Sixty percent of Iranians are under the age of 30. With
this group yearning for economic opportunity, foreign trade and
investment matter greatly to the Tehran regime.
Furthermore, Iran has complained vociferously and threatened
endlessly over the issue of economic sanctions, leading one to
believe-at least superficially-that their imposition would
undermine the regime's interests.
At this point, Iran may fear economic sanctions more than it
fears military action. Tehran believes that military action is a
long shot while the United States and NATO are engaged in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Conclusion
Some major European and Asian nations continue to balk at taking
tougher action. After several years of shuttle diplomacy by the EU
and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the time has come to
circumvent U.N. Security Council roadblocks. Nations such as
Germany and Japan must be convinced to put long-term global
security ahead of short-term economic gains.
If Iran is cut off by its major trade and investment partners,
Tehran may just change course-because there is nothing the regime
fears more than a counterrevolution by Iran's dissatisfied,
economically disadvantaged youth.
Peter Brookes is
Chung Ju-Yung Fellow for National Security Affairs in the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies
at The Heritage Foundation.