While some journalists covering today's jobs report will focus
on the slight uptick in the unemployment rate, everyone else will
be looking at the strong rate of job creation in September and the
upward revisions to job numbers for the previous two months. The
number of new jobs created by private and public employers in
September is estimated at 110,000, and job growth in August was
revised upward from a loss of 4,000 to a gain of 89,000. This means
that September was the 49th consecutive month of job growth. The
good news, then, is that fears of recession are misplaced, but
Congress must still take care to avoid upsetting the economy with
heavy-handed economic interventions and growth-sapping
policies.
The September Jobs Report
In September, the economy added 110,000 jobs, which exceeded the
consensus forecast of job growth of 100,000. The majority of these
jobs were in the education and health sectors (44,000),
professional and business services (21,000), and government
(37,000). The construction sector continued to shed jobs (14,000)
as that industry continues to weather a slump in housing
construction. Manufacturing continued to shed employment (18,000)
as the sector becomes more efficient.
Now at its highest level in over a year, the unemployment rate
climbed to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent. This increase is due to a
573,000-worker increase in the civilian labor force. While most of
the new entrants had jobs, the number of unemployed was high enough
to increase the unemployment rate. The labor force participation
rate climbed back up to 66 percent, which has been typical of the
last several months.
The large increase in the labor force is an indication that
workers may feel better about the economy. Fears of a recession
will be eased by today's report.
Restraining Government Intervention in the
Economy
Some policymakers and commentators believe that the government
should intervene in the economy to create a stronger job market.
Specifically, they believe that by raising the minimum wage and
expanding union membership, the government can raise wages and
living standards. These policymakers have good intentions, but that
is not enough. The evidence shows that these policies are
counterproductive. Congress should look elsewhere to strengthen the
economy.
Raising the minimum wage seems like an intuitive way to help
low-income families. By increasing wages directly, Congress can
ensure that some low-wage workers get a raise. And raising the
minimum wage does in fact increase wages for some low-income
workers. Unfortunately, its effects do not stop there. Because they
must pay more, businesses replace many of their less-skilled
low-income workers with higher skilled, more productive workers who
charge more for their services.[1] Employers also cut back on
the total number of workers they hire and how many hours they hire
them for.
Studies of low-income workers following minimum wage hikes show
that, even though wages rise, total earned income falls slightly
because lost jobs and lost hours more than offsets the higher
wages.[2] Unsurprisingly, then, study after study
finds that higher minimum wages do nothing to reduce poverty.[3] A
higher minimum wage simply does not help those its supporters want
it to.
Many also believe expanded union membership will strengthen the
middle class. They point to the fact that the typical union member
earns about 30 percent more than the typical nonunion worker and
argue that greater unionization would bring millions of Americans
significantly higher wages.[4] This analysis seems straightforward, but it
is also incomplete.
Unions are cartels, seeking to drive up the wages of their
members by restricting the number of workers available to do a
given job. Companies must pay more for unionized workers, and they
pass that cost on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This
increases wages for union members somewhat, but it also creates a
labor monopoly that costs jobs, hurts consumers, and slows the
economy. In practice, competition makes it difficult for unions to
monopolize labor fully and prevents them from winning large wage
increases. Studies show that the union wage difference is usually
small to nonexistent, not the 30 percent premium that unions
claim.
Union members earn more than nonunion members primarily because
they tend to work in industries that pay higher wages, such as the
airline and auto industries, and because they tend to have more
skills than the average worker. Unionized companies tend to hire
more skilled and productive workers in the first place because
union contracts make it almost impossible to fire workers once they
are hired. That a skilled worker in a high-wage industry earns more
than the average worker does not mean that the average worker's
wages will rise if he or she joins a union.
Studies that follow workers over time show that wages rise
modestly upon joining a union-about six percent.[5] One study looked at
the wages of workers who voted to unionize and compared them to the
wages of workers who voted against unionizing. Forming a union did
not raise workers' wages.[6] According to the research, joining a union
does not significantly raise wages.
Unionization does hurt the economy, however. Unionized companies
earn lower profits than nonunion companies. This causes them to
reduce their investments in capital and research and development by
between 13 and 25 percent, because they earn a lower return on
their investment.[7] A union forming at a firm has the same
effect on business investment as Congress raising the corporate
income tax rate to 67 percent.[8] Less investment, less
research and development, and less access to capital causes
unionized companies to grow much less quickly and create far fewer
jobs than nonunion companies.[9] More unions are not the way
to raise wages and create opportunities for workers.
Conclusion
This month's job report is good news and allays fears that the
economy is sliding into a recession. Though economic growth and job
growth are slower than in those years immediately following the
2003 tax cut, the economy is growing. Congress should not use
slightly slower growth to justify heavy-handed interventions in the
marketplace. Instead Congress should look at fiscal restraint and
consider extending the pro-growth elements of the Bush tax
cuts.
Rea S. Hederman,
Jr., is Senior Policy Analyst in the Center for Data Analysis
at The Heritage Foundation. James
Sherk is Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy in the Center for Data
Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
[2]
David Neumark, Mark Schweitzer, and William Wascher. "Minimum Wage
Effects Throughout the Wage Distribution." Journal of Human
Resources, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 425-50.
[3]
Richard K. Vedder and Lowell E. Gallaway, "Does the Minimum Wage
Reduce Poverty?" Employment Policies Institute, June 2001, at
;David
Neumark, Mark Schweitzer, and William Wascher, "The Effects of
Minimum Wages on the Distribution of Family Incomes: A
Non-Parametric Analysis," forthcoming in Journal of Human
Resources; and David Neumark and William Wascher, "Do Minimum
Wages Fight Poverty?" Economic Inquiry, July 2002, pp.
315-333.
[4]
AFL-CIO, "Unions Raise Wages - Especially for Women and
Minorities," at .
[5]
David Card, "The Effects of Unions on the Structure of Wages: A
Longitudinal Analysis" Econometrica, Vol. 64, No. 4, pp.
957-979.
[6]
John Dinardo, and David Lee, "Economic Impacts of Unionization on
Private Sector Employers," NBER Working Paper No. 10598,
2004.
[7]
Barry Hirsch, Labor Unions and the Economic Performance of U.S.
Firms (Kalamazoo, Mich.: Upjohn Institute for Employment
Research, 1991); Julian Betts, Cameron W. Odgers, and Michael K.
Wilson. "The Effects of Unions on Research and Development: An
Empirical Analysis Using Multi-Year Data." Canadian Journal of
Economics 34 (August 2001), pp. 785-806; Cameron Odgers and
Julian R. Betts, "Do Unions Reduce Investment? Evidence from
Canada," Industrial and Labor Relations Review 51 (October
1997), pp. 18-36. Robert Connolly, Barry T. Hirsch, and Mark
Hirschey. "Union Rent Seeking, Intangible Capital, and Market Value
of the Firm." Review of Economics and Statistics, No.68
(November 1986), pp. 567-77; and Jospeh Cavanaugh, "Asset Specific
Investment and Unionized Labor." Industrial Relations,
vol.37, pp. 35-50.
[8]
Bruce Fallick and Kevin A. Hassett, "Investment and Union
Certification." Journal of Labor Economics, vol.17, pp.
570-82.
[9]
Timothy Dunne and David A. Macpherson, "Unionism and Gross
Employment Flows." Southern Economic Journal, vol.60, pp.
727-38; Barry Hirsch, "What do Unions Do to Economic Performance?"
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Paper
No. 892; Henry Farber and Bruce Western, "Round Up the Usual
Suspects: The Decline of Unions in the Private Sector 1973-1998,"
Princeton University Industrial Relations Section Working
Paper No. 437.