General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are due back
in Washington next month to testify before Congress on the
situation in Iraq. The two officials also testified last September
and had a major impact on the perceptions of many Americans about
the conflict in Iraq. Congressional critics of the Bush
Administration's Iraq policy are likely to try once again to
exploit the hearings for partisan advantage.
To help citizens and policymakers develop an informed opinion
about the situation in Iraq, Members of Congress should ask the
following key questions:
Can the security gains made in the
past year under the surge strategy be sustained with lower numbers
of U.S. troops?
The numerical strength of American forces will gradually decline
to pre-surge levels by late July. The Administration reportedly is
taking a cautious approach, pausing to evaluate the security
situation before risking further troop withdrawals. How long a
pause is necessary before a determination can be made about the
U.S. force levels necessary to sustain future progress? How quickly
can Iraq's army, police, and internal security forces acquire
enough personnel, training, equipment, and esprit de corps
to shoulder more of the burden? What is the best estimate of how
long it will be before U.S. troops can make the gradual transition
from major combat operations to primarily supporting and training
Iraqi security forces?
Can Iraq's political leaders
consolidate the gains of the military surge through a surge of
political progress?
Progress on the political front has lagged behind progress on
the security front, as was expected. But now that the scale of
violence has been greatly reduced, what are the prospects for
anchoring the hard-won security gains in a sustainable political
framework shaped by Iraq's coalition government? Will provincial
elections slated for later this year empower pragmatic political
leaders who can build a lasting political accommodation from the
grassroots up?
Is the war in Iraq part of the broader
war against terrorism?
Despite the fact that most of the most lethal attacks in Iraq
are perpetrated by al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), many Democrats reject
the Bush Administration's claim that the struggle in Iraq is part
of the war on terrorism. What are the links between AQI and the
al-Qaeda leadership that is believed to be hiding in the Pashtun
tribal areas of Pakistan? If the U.S. withdrew its troops early in
the next Administration, how difficult would it be for AQI, which
has been greatly weakened by constant attacks, to regroup and
establish a useful sanctuary in Iraq? What are the implications of
a U.S. defeat in Iraq for the future struggle against al-Qaeda and
other Islamist terrorist groups?
What has been Iran's role in Iraq?
There have been mixed reports about the level of Iranian support
for Iraqi insurgents and radical Shia militias since the Bush
Administration highlighted Iran's hostile role last year. What can
be said about the continuing presence and activities of Iran's
Revolutionary Guards inside Iraq? Has Ambassador Crocker's
diplomatic effort to induce Tehran to halt its aggressive
activities inside Iraq produced any concrete results? What are the
estimates of the current trends in Iran's supply of weapons,
training, funding, and explosively formed penetrators or other
explosive devices to Iraqi client groups?
What is at stake in Iraq?
The United States has paid a heavy price in Iraq to support the
development of a stable democracy in the vital Persian Gulf region.
Some argue that the costs of achieving this goal have grown too
high. What would be the potential costs of a defeat in Iraq for the
United States in terms of its future security, the security of its
allies, regional stability, efforts to contain Iran, the war
against al-Qaeda, and the growth of Islamic radicalism? What would
be the humanitarian costs of such a defeat for the Iraqi people?
What will be the long-term economic and energy security
implications if Iraq implodes into a bitter civil war that disrupts
the flow of Iraqi oil exports or, worse, spills over to disrupt the
flow of oil from Iraq's neighbors in the Persian Gulf?
The answers to these questions will go a long way toward
determining the levels of congressional and popular support for
making the necessary sacrifices to sustain the recent progress in
Iraq.
For more information, see Progress in
Iraq.
James Phillips is
Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.