Since
the fall of the Soviet Empire, the rationale behind NATO's
existence has been questioned. However, not only is NATO
necessary for the West's protection, but its broader raison
d'être has never been more meaningful. The common values that
unite NATO members-freedom, liberty, human rights, and the rule of
law-remain under threat from both state and non-state actors that
are using asymmetric and symmetrical tactics.
It
remains in America's vital interest to maintain and revitalize the
NATO Alliance to address the global challenges of today and the
future. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission
in Afghanistan has exposed strategic and political
shortcomings, and the alliance must use the Bucharest Summit on
April 2-4 to initiate reforms designed to cope with the demands of
this rapidly changing security environment. NATO now needs a
new post-Cold War role.
It is
also vital that NATO members in Continental Europe take regional
and international security more seriously both in terms of defense
spending and in terms of political will. The European Union (EU)
has become far more concerned with creating a separate defense
identity to constrain American power than with complementing
it.
NATO
has been one of the most successful multilateral institutions
in modern history. It has secured peace in Western Europe for
nearly 60 years and has done so without demanding the surrender of
member states' sovereignty or independence. It remains the central
feature of the Euro-Atlantic community and a key target for
accession for newly democratizing countries. But if NATO is to
survive as a relevant institution capable of protecting the West
and its strategic interests, it must be strategically reformed,
enlarged, and politically revitalized.
Time
for a New Strategic Concept
The
Bucharest Summit should mark the start of negotiations for a
revised strategic concept for NATO, which should be concluded in
time for its 60th anniversary summit in 2009.[1]
Since its foundation, NATO has successfully adjusted its core
objectives and courses of action to the changing strategic
situations in which it has found itself. Since 9/11, different
security challenges and international threats have become obvious,
including cyberterrorism and ballistic missile attack. NATO
needs to adapt to this new strategic reality with the same
political and military energy with which it confronted past
threats.
The
alliance should embark upon a new strategic concept based on a
shared threat perception. This new strategic concept should have
the support of all NATO members, based on an implicit
understanding of NATO's purpose, organization, and tasks. It
should broadly outline how NATO can employ its military,
diplomatic, and economic tools to address these threats,
accompanied by a thorough public diplomacy effort at the highest
levels.
NATO
Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer called for a new strategic
concept in 2007, appealing to members to learn the lessons of
Afghanistan and Kosovo and "enshrine them in our guiding
documents so that they are implemented in practice."[2]
However, he has found it difficult to get traction on this issue.[3]
As with every previous revision of the strategic concept, his
proposal has met with resistance and debate about whether or
not a new strategic concept is needed. Yet every previous
revision of the strategic concept has pointed the alliance in the
right direction.
The
United States should make this revision a priority agenda item for
the Bucharest Summit. The next U.S. Administration will almost
certainly have higher priorities than reforming NATO. The United
States needs to seize this moment to start the process to
refocus NATO's attention on its enduring purposes and
tasks.
NATO
in Today's Strategic Environment
NATO's
purpose should be a genuine commitment to ensuring the safety
and security of member states' geostrategic interests at home
and abroad. A new strategic concept would allow NATO to lay
out its vision for where it wants to be in the next decade, both
geographically and metaphorically, and would send a strong message
to both its allies and its enemies.
The
long-term commitment to ensuring security and stability in Europe
should obviously remain a key principle of the alliance. A new
strategic concept should therefore seek to find the right
balance between NATO's European obligations and its expeditionary
focus. NATO's commitment to the protection and, now, independence
of Kosovo actually embodies many of the elements of the Afghanistan
mission. The multifaceted Kosovo Force (KFOR) mission and its daily
interaction with multiple international partners provide a
positive model for how NATO will likely operate in future
endeavors.
The
Afghanistan mission, the alliance's first out-of-area mission,
certainly represents a future direction for the alliance, both
geographically and in terms of NATO's fundamental tasks. The
alliance's ability to undertake out-of-area missions, followed by
coordinated civilian-political reconstruction, interacting with
multiple partners must be a major principle of the new strategic
concept.
It is
important, then, that NATO's global partnerships, both with
organizations and with non-NATO member states, be determined in a
more systematic fashion. Its ability to work closely and
comprehensively with the United Nations, the G-8, the EU,
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector is
incredibly important, especially in post-conflict resolution and
reconstruction. The interface between civilian and military
instruments of power is a critical element of today's new security
environment and may ultimately determine the alliance's
success or failure in Afghanistan.
It is
imperative, however, that NATO not concede the role of
post-conflict reconstruction to the European Union. Although it
must cooperate and work closely with the EU, which has civilian
resources and expertise, it cannot afford an arrangement in
which NATO does the fighting and the EU does the reconstructing.
With significant membership overlap between the two
institutions, this would essentially create a two-tier alliance in
which a handful of NATO partners led by the U.S. and U.K. would do
most of the heavy lifting and the majority of European nations led
by France and Germany would undertake a purely hearts-and-minds
agenda. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has specifically
warned against such an arrangement, with "some allies willing to
fight and die to protect people's security and others who are
not."[4]
Such a two-tiered arrangement would rip the heart out of
NATO.
Obviously,
military means alone will not achieve long-term stability in
Afghanistan or Kosovo. That will come as part of a broader
collective undertaking with other actors, including NGOs and the
European Union, but NATO will need to be at the forefront
of both missions and play the lead role in the multiple elements
required to make them succeed.
Establishing
NATO as a global player should be a crucial element of the new
strategic concept. Transatlantic security interests reach
beyond Europe's borders, and NATO needs to play a more dynamic role
on the international stage. However, the Afghanistan mission has
revealed the profound lack of political will on the part of some
NATO members to undertake this role and to assume an equitable
share of the burden. NATO is already showing danger signs of
turning into a two-tier alliance. NATO should be a defense alliance
against all threats, regardless of origin, and act where it is
necessary to defeat them. However, many national leaders have
failed to persuade their publics that the Afghanistan mission
serves either the alliance's interests or transatlantic
security. To the alliance's humiliation, its European members have
proven unable or unwilling to muster an additional 3,200
troops to send to southern Afghanistan following a request from
Secretary Gates.[5]
Bucharest
will
provide a moment for the alliance to state definitively that its
areas of interest extend beyond Europe. For too many alliance
members, the crisis in Kosovo is real and immediate only because of
its geographic nearness. Yet a failure in Afghanistan-and the
inevitable resurgence of the Taliban-would also create a profound,
long-term threat to European interests. The Bucharest Summit should
resolve this issue and sell a strategic global vision for the
future of NATO.
To
fashion a strategic concept commensurate with NATO's interests and
purposes, members will need to engage in both political and public
diplomacy to demonstrate the value of defeating threats
wherever they arise. Ultimately, unless member states are willing
to engage in the full range of NATO missions on a broader front
than was envisioned during the Cold War, the alliance will be
permanently broken. The new strategic concept needs to make a
strong case for making Afghanistan a success and for taking on
future expeditionary missions as needed.
A new
strategic concept would also give the United States a vehicle to
address the alliance's shortcomings in Afghanistan and to focus
efforts on revitalizing the ISAF mission. The process has the
potential to unite the alliance and reassert cohesion for the ISAF
mission. Considering the sense of frustration currently
enveloping the alliance over Afghanistan, the formation of a new
strategic concept is needed now.
Arriving
at a Common Threat Perception
It is
imperative that NATO members undertake an enhanced security
dialogue to define the 21st century's key threats, beginning with
Islamist terrorism. The fight against transnational terrorism
is undoubtedly the defining battle of this generation, but it is
not sufficiently clear that NATO's continental partners
classify the terrorist acts committed by Islamist extremists in New
York, Washington, Madrid, London, and Istanbul as anything more
than a spate of separate criminal acts.
The
atrocities committed by Islamic terrorists in Washington, New York,
Madrid, and London were in fact attacks on the principles of
freedom and liberty that define Western civilization. Al-Qaeda
and its allies have targeted innocent civilians in Europe, America,
Africa, the Middle East, the Far East, and Central Asia and will
continue to advance their borderless war on Western values and
attempt to break the West's will to fight an asymmetric "long war."
A united transatlantic response through NATO and commitment to what
is currently an indeterminable timetable for victory is not only
necessary, but essential if Europe and America are to confront the
domestic and global network of extremists who are intent on
annihilating the West and its allies.
The
strategic concept should also address the threats of ballistic
missile attack, cyberterrorism, and proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction. In each area, NATO has the potential to add
significant value to the efforts of individual member states and
can prepare to assist them as an alliance in the case of
emergency.
In
many respects, a revised strategic concept would likely be very
similar to the existing strategic concept, which mentions, at least
in passing, many of these threats.[6]
But by reprioritizing and focusing on new and evolving threats, a
new strategic concept would send a powerful message that NATO
is to be taken seriously in these matters. It would also emphasize
current missions and emergent projects such as missile
defense.
However,
NATO should avoid turning the renegotiation of its strategic
concept and the major threats to its geostrategic interests into a
laundry list of members' social and economic bugbears. For
instance, environmentalism is not a policy area that NATO should
address. NATO members approach environmental policy in very
different ways, and a number of international forums already deal
with the thorny issue of emissions levels. A new common threat
perception should specifically address the threats to members'
immediate security and their broader geostrategic outlook. It
should contain the biggest and most pressing challenges to
international security and stability and avoid issues of
social policy that some members may want to raise.
Capabilities:
NATO's Transformational Agenda
Although
NATO's capabilities have always involved diplomacy and defense, the
alliance has recently focused on military capabilities in light of
the demanding security environment in Afghanistan. Yet NATO
operates on a political level as well and should systematically
employ the strategic tools of dialogue and diplomacy alongside a
high-tech and expanded military capability. The new strategic
concept should look at how the alliance will conduct and
sustain future operations and address the fundamental question of
the interface between its civilian and military
capabilities.
Hard
Power. NATO
is a military alliance. Therefore, if it intends to undertake
out-of-area missions, it must have the manpower and resources to
sustain them militarily. Afghanistan has demonstrated that NATO
does not have a sufficient commitment of forces from its members to
sustain genuinely multinational, long-term expeditionary
operations. Most alliance members are hamstrung by political
paralysis and unreasonably low-levels of defense
spending. Each alliance member, especially those in
Continental Europe, needs to address these questions and
examine its ability to provide what NATO needs in key areas such as
air-to-ground surveillance, strategic airlift, and aerial
refueling.
One
way to leverage cash-strapped defense budgets is to invest in
multinational logistics. With the enormous costs associated with
modern weaponry, defense expenditures should take on a more global
character. As technology becomes more expensive and advanced, the
interoperability of defense systems will likely become not
just desirable, but essential to joint military efforts such as the
one in Afghanistan. A multinational standardization of equipment
under the NATO umbrella would be a flexible and efficient use of
resources to contribute to operational success in the long
term.
It is
imperative that NATO take the lead in coordinating such
projects. However, the European Union is actively duplicating NATO
in this field. Through its European Defense Agency (EDA), the EU is
pursuing jointly funded, interoperable projects, which exclude
non-EU countries. With its desire to create a stronger European
defense industrial base, the EU is in a position to skew the
procurement agenda against NATO's broader interests. In this
age of digital warfare and tight budgets, procurement
decisions are critical, and the EU should not be in a position to
pursue its own political and economic agenda at the expense of the
alliance. It also remains to be seen whether the EDA can inject any
real free-market ethos into the rather protected EU defense sector
or is merely another failed European institution-building
measure.
Most
European nations need to continue transforming their
militaries into modern, interoperable fighting machines.
Multinational logistics bring NATO countries together and are
integral to transforming the alliance.
With
its existing expertise and American leadership, NATO's Allied
Command Transformation (ACT) is a perfect vehicle for addressing
these shortfalls and determining each member's exact
contribution to NATO. Even NATO members without high-end
expeditionary capabilities can offer a specialized role to the
alliance, such as the Czech Republic's nuclear, biological, and
chemical defense capabilities.[7]
ACT, not the unproven and duplicate European Defense Agency, should
be the primary vehicle for cooperation and collaboration among NATO
members in streamlining and improving NATO's defense capabilities.
It is time to abolish the European Defense Agency, which was
founded with no legal basis in 2004 and has not added significant
value to Europe's defense goals.
The
NATO Response Force (NRF) should be fully developed to use
resources most efficiently and to meet NATO's operational
requirements. It has already shown incredible promise during its
deployments, including its quick response to the humanitarian
crisis precipitated by the Pakistani earthquake in late 2005. As a
"highly ready and technologically advanced force…that the
alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed," the NRF is an
innovative and useful mechanism to undertake NATO's missions in
today's security environment[8]
and a key transformational aspect of the alliance. As former
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld noted in 2005, "The NATO
Response Force will over time prove to be the key to maintaining
NATO's relevance in a world where threats emerge in
unpredictable ways and unpredictable places."[9]
The
NRF needs sufficient forces and resources, but the EU has played a
dangerous game by constituting its own separate
crisis-response battle groups, which pose an enormous challenge to
the NRF's future success. Under its Headline Goal 2010, the EU now
has fully operational, rapidly deployable battle groups that can be
deployed at the U.N.'s request. Yet without additional money and
men, Europe's battle groups should be seen as nothing less than a
direct duplication of the NATO mechanism.
The
Bucharest Summit needs to recommit to the NRF concept and analyze
its missions and tasks to suit the revised purpose of the alliance.
The NRF should not be allowed to fall by the wayside for lack of
European commitment or because of EU duplication, which is
exactly what is happening. In the words of Peter Schmidt, a defense
analyst at the Institute for International and Security Affairs,
"The reality is that NATO and the EU are chasing after the same
highly skilled soldier and of course the same euro to finance these
missions. There is now immense strain on the defense plans of NATO
and the EU."[10]
If
European powers genuinely wish to complement NATO, they could
easily do so by spending more on defense and rapidly modernizing
their militaries. NATO has undertaken key transformation
initiatives to become a leaner, more effective fighting machine,
using innovative instruments such as the NRF to face the strategic
challenges of the 21st century. NATO's Allied Command
Transformation can improve military effectiveness and
interoperability, support alliance operations, and ultimately
create a "credible, sustainable and agile organization."[11]
Both the European Union and the NATO Alliance should support this
aim at the highest levels and take the strategic decisions
necessary to make it happen.
Soft
Power. Since
Afghanistan has demonstrated that success involves both military
and civilian capabilities, alliance members need to do more than
merely increase defense spending and upgrade military
hardware. The alliance needs to recognize the value of employing
tools of post-conflict reconstruction and benchmarking best
practices in interfacing with outside agencies.
In
this respect, the EU has capabilities that it should make available
to NATO. It also presents a way of formulating a sensible working
relationship between the two entities that draws some of the poison
from the EU's naked power grab in the defense sphere.
Through
the Feira Goals, the EU has equipped itself with extensive civilian
crisis management capabilities. It has 5,700 police officers, 630
legal experts, 560 civilian administration experts, and 5,000 civil
protection experts available and has already enjoyed some limited
operational success in low-level, modest missions. Operation
Concordia in Macedonia, followed by the civilian policing
missions Proxima and EUPAT, went relatively smoothly and made
a marginal contribution to the West's overall success by putting
Macedonia and Bosnia on a more stable footing. The EU is currently
planning to deploy 1,800 civilian officials-including judges,
prosecutors, policemen, and customs officials-to Kosovo to take
over from the United Nations and assist with the growth of the
fledgling democracy.[12]
The
EU should continue to use its resources to complement NATO missions
and work closely with the alliance on how to best deploy them,
since they are frequently the same troops anyway.[13]
The EU should move away from using defense policy merely to further
its integrationist agenda and make a truly meaningful contribution
to international stability by making its civilian resources
available to NATO coordinators. It remains completely
incongruous that the Berlin-Plus arrangements ensure EU access
to NATO capabilities and common assets but do not grant NATO
reciprocal access to the EU's extensive civilian
capabilities.
Public
Diplomacy. Theability
to communicate its mission effectively and engage in systematic,
well-planned public diplomacy will be critical to NATO's
transformation agenda. Its public diplomacy strategy should
seek to explain both current and future missions, communicating the
central features and ultimate goals of its missions and
operations. NATO's target audience should also be both
domestic and international.
Although
NATO is meant to have a public diplomacy mission, it does not
have NATO representatives or offices in members' capitals as
the EU does. This has led to mixed messages on the Afghanistan
mission, for example, where messages from Kabul have not always
been consistent with those coming from individual members. NATO
should immediately use its professional diplomats, operating
specifically under a NATO banner, to emphasize the major
successes of Afghanistan, explain the mission, and
operationalize a public diplomacy strategy to generate wider
support for its mission both in Afghanistan and in member states.
NATO also needs to brand its missions much more distinctly, similar
to the EU's prolific use of its blue flag.
NATO
is one of the few multilateral institutions that have been
successful both in practice and in theory, but there is a limit to
how much stress can be put on a minority of members. NATO is an
alliance, not a coalition of the willing. Revitalizing and
reforming it will require the exercise of strong political will at
the head-of-state level. It is incumbent upon every alliance
member to demonstrate such political will at the Bucharest Summit
and commit to the future of the alliance through a new strategic
concept.
Afghanistan
: A
True Test of the Alliance
There
is only one thing worse than fighting with allies and that is
fighting without them.
-Winston
Churchill[14]
For
the Bucharest Summit to be a success, it must address the difficult
issues surrounding NATO's ISAF mission in Afghanistan. In many
ways, the Afghanistan mission is a test case for how the
alliance will operate in the future. Key questions to be addressed
include military-civilian cooperation and reconstruction,
national caveats, and NATO's broader transformation
agenda.

The
mission in Afghanistan requires steadfast commitment to providing
security for Afghan civilians, rooting out Islamic extremists,
boosting the Afghan economy, and helping the Afghans to build a
responsive government that will be an effective ally in the war on
terrorism. Mission success essentially requires the victory of
peace and stability in this area of the world, which is fundamental
to the West's interests.
The
creation of Afghanistan as a viable state that respects and upholds
the common values of rule of law, human dignity, and equal rights
is a major test not just of the NATO Alliance, but of the wider
international community's will to sustain and protect this new
democracy. It is also demonstrably in the West's interest to ensure
that Afghanistan does not again become a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and
Islamist terrorists. As NATO Secretary General Scheffer recently
said in Washington:
In an
age where external and internal security are more and more
interwoven, Afghanistan is a mission of necessity rather than one
of choice. Just seven years ago- that's not long ago-Afghanistan
was the grand central station of terrorism. If this mission were
not to succeed-and let me be very clear, it is succeeding and will
succeed-Afghanistan would once again pose a clear and present
danger to itself, its region but also the broader international
community.[15]
In
such a precarious region, Afghanistan's success or failure will
have profound global implications, especially for the promotion of
moderate Islam. If the West fails in Afghanistan, the biggest
beneficiaries will surely be those who wish to impose a
radical, perverted form of Islam on Afghanistan and return it
to a barbaric medieval state.
Military
Success. Sadly,
the mission in Afghanistan, which is sponsored and supported
by the U.N., has revealed something that NATO desperately
wanted to avoid: the virtual creation of a two-tiered alliance.
Although many European nations are more inclined toward
reconstruction and humanitarian missions for political reasons,
alliance members must not be allowed to opt for one or the other
exclusively.
In
forming new patterns of cooperation within the alliance, it is
sensible to draw upon the expertise and experience of certain
member states in post-conflict reconstruction. However, the
alliance must not allow member states to withdraw from riskier
military endeavors in exchange for commitments in the field of
reconstruction. As the alliance's current strategic concept notes,
NATO "must, above all, maintain the political will and the military
means required by the entire range of its missions."[16]
The
inability or unwillingness of certain nations to shoulder the
burden of NATO's obligation in Afghanistan is ripping the heart out
of the alliance, and this is unacceptable. The NATO Alliance was
built on the enduring values of civilized democracies and
solidarity among the member states to export, not just consume,
security. To have large, wealthy nations refuse to pull their
weight at the expense of the other members is fundamentally wrong.
As NATO spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Rejean Duchesneau notes,
"If you sign on to the mission, you should sign on to the whole
package."[17]
One
program that has particularly suffered from inadequate manpower is
the Coalition Embedded Training Teams, which offers mentorship,
advice, and training to Afghan National Army (ANA) battalions
in areas such as intelligence, communications, and logistics. Less
than 20 NATO troops are needed per Afghan battalion. The program
has proven extremely successful in building a modern Afghan army
and in communicating ISAF's message to ordinary Afghan
communities.[18]
Perhaps
the most significant vindication of this program was the retaking
of Musa Qala from the Taliban in December 2007 by the Afghan
National Army, backed by NATO troops.[19]
Not only does this represent a massive step forward in the ANA's
capabilities, but it freed political space for reconciliation and
democratization. Mullah Abdul Salaam, a former Taliban commander
who broke ranks shortly before the Taliban's defeat, has since
become governor of the town. He has the backing of both the Afghan
government and the local tribes. This constitutes a significant
political and military breakthrough.[20]
This
program has had other notable successes and has undoubtedly
bolstered the ANA. The ANA captured senior Taliban leader Mullah
Mahmood at a checkpoint in March 2007 as he was attempting to
escape wearing a burka.[21]
This came on the heels of the ANA's capture of Mullah Mohammad
Wali, another Taliban extremist.[22]The
Afghans have even projected an extremely ambitious plan to reach
the ANA's target strength of 70,000 soldiers by the time of the
Bucharest Summit,[23]
which is far earlier than the expected date of 2009.[24]
The
Afghan National Police have now been brought into the training
program as they grow in both numbers and ability, complementing the
overall security situation in Afghanistan. However, the
program has just 500 NATO and coalition trainers and needs an
additional 300.[25]
This number will continue to increase as the ANA increases its
troop numbers. Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has even called on
President George W. Bush to support expanding the Afghan army's end
strength to 200,000 soldiers at the Bucharest Summit.[26]
NATO should be embarrassed that Afghanistan is standing up army
battalions faster than it can find the less than 20 trainers needed
to assist each new battalion.
Moving
Forward. As
the security situation improves in Afghanistan, the political space
to build Afghanistan's democracy will become more stable. As NATO
applies a full spectrum of operations, it is developing better
tools of comprehensive thinking and finding ways of adapting
to today's security environment. It should aim to sustain
development on all fronts and utilize the military and
cultural strengths of alliance members in moving
forward.
The
Bucharest Summit will provide a singular moment to turn the page on
the "blame game" and come to a new understanding about how to make
Afghanistan a success. The message of blame has conspicuously
failed to generate further public support for the Afghanistan
mission, since it largely emphasizes what has gone wrong in the
region.
The
comprehensive strategic political-military plan for Afghanistan,
which hopefully will be taken forward at Bucharest, presents a
major opportunity for the transatlantic alliance and the
international community to demonstrate their commitment to the
stability of Afghanistan and the security of its peoples. In the
plan, NATO members should:
- Firmly
commit enough troops to eliminate shortfalls,
especially in areas where NATO is short of key enablers, such as
reconnaissance, engineering, air support, special operations, and
intelligence. NATO needs to add enough depth and capacity to
address gaps in theater-gaps that the enemy will
exploit.
- Commit
to training and equipping the Afghan security
forces,
including the Afghan National Army, to an appropriate level so that
they can assume more responsibility for their own
security.
- Recognize
that the stakes in Afghanistan are monumental,
both for Afghanistan and for the future of NATO. This should be
accompanied by a thorough public diplomacy effort to build
public support, especially within member states. The plan
should state explicitly that the Afghanistan mission is a long-term
mission that will require ongoing operational and peacekeeping
commitments by the alliance.
- Explicitly
affirm that NATO is a military alliance and
not a coalition of the willing. It must reject any move toward
becoming a two-tiered alliance, especially the false choice between
military operations or participation in development. All
alliance members are responsible for both.
- Identify
where the Afghans must improve. Bad
governance and corruption are huge impediments to progress in
Afghanistan, and the Karzai government must address these issues in
the central government, particularly in the Afghan National
Police, and with provincial and tribal leaders.
NATO
Secretary General Scheffer recently noted that 7 million refugees
have returned to Afghanistan and that 6 million children are now in
school, including 2 million girls. He also noted that the vast
majority of security incidents are taking place in a small
geographic area, affecting just 6 percent of the overall
population.[27]
Macroeconomic and social indicators are also good, showing vast
improvements in basic health care and an increased number of
health workers.[28]
This progress would have been unimaginable just seven years ago
when Afghanistan was under the brutal tyranny of the
Taliban.
However,
NATO will need to maintain pressure on the Taliban insurgents to
free the political and social space required for Afghanistan's
democratic development. As NATO provides a more secure and stable
environment, the potential for economic development will increase,
offering alternate financial opportunities for Taliban "day
fighters."
The
international community is not only still necessary to ensure that
Afghanistan remains on a positive path, but also welcomed by the
Afghan government and its people. American journalist Roger Cohen
describes the mission in Afghanistan as "Europe's Iraq."[29]
Certainly, strength, resolve, and leadership are needed there just
as much as in Iraq, and the Bucharest Summit has the potential to
inject them back into the alliance.
NATO:
Cornerstone of the Transatlantic Alliance
Afghanistan
has
tested NATO not just in theory, but operationally, allowing some
nations to make positive transformations through their experiences
in theater and work together in ways previously not considered.
However, it has also exposed deep divisions, and the failure of
some member states to meet their obligations has been spectacular.
Although any serious reform of NATO will require strong leadership
from the United States, it must be a recognizably multilateral
effort and ensure the buy-in of all members that wish to remain
part of the alliance. As former Senator James Talent notes,
"Nations should recognize that they must bear their share of the
burden if they seek their share of the authority."[30]
Spending.
If
the Bucharest Summit is to put the heart back into the alliance,
its members should fulfill the previously agreed benchmark of
spending 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense at a
minimum. Just four (Bulgaria, France, Greece, and the U.K.) of the
21 EU-NATO members meet this benchmark. On average, EU-NATO
members spend just 1.6 percent of GDP on defense, and this decline
must be reversed.[31]
Caveats.
The
Bucharest Summit also needs to end the vast majority of national
caveats. Caveats severely impede the multinational nature of
missions and operationally impede their planning and
execution. As a NATO Parliamentary Assembly resolution noted
in 2005, caveats limited the ability of NATO forces to respond to
the civil unrest in Kosovo in March 2004, and their removal has
since created more flexible and capable response mechanisms.[32]
NATO
should not need to experience a similar crisis in Afghanistan
before removing caveats there.[33]
Caveats have become a major headache for the ISAF mission,
including:
- The
geographical restriction of German troops to the calmer northern
areas,
- Barring
Southern European troops from fighting in snow,
- One nation
banning troops from other nations from flying in its aircraft.[34]
In
February 2007, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General John
Craddock called for removal of all caveats.[35]
U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) also called on European nations to
"reconsider" their caveats.[36]
Although the Riga Summit declared that national caveats could be
lifted in times of emergency, very little has changed, and caveats
continue to operate to the detriment of the alliance.[37]
General
Dan McNeill, NATO's ISAF leader, recently repeated General
Craddock's 2007 statement calling for the elimination of
caveats.[38]
Serious action is long overdue, and Bucharest offers members
of the alliance a chance to succeed where they failed in Riga.
Secretary Gates recently noted that "brothers in arms achieve
victory only when all march in step toward the sound of the
guns."[39]
NATO is an alliance of 26 members that need to stand
together as the flag bearers of liberty and
freedom.
The
Primacy of NATO. The
Bucharest Summit also needs to reassert the primacy of NATO as the
cornerstone of the transatlantic alliance, a policy that has been
eroded over time by the integrationist and expansionist policies of
the European Union. The EU's renamed constitution, the Lisbon
Reform Treaty, proposes to undo the very linchpins of the NATO
Alliance and undermine the supremacy of NATO as Europe's primary
defense actor.
The
wording of the Lisbon Treaty gives great momentum to the European
Security and Defense Policy (ESDP):
The
Union's competence in matters of common foreign and security
policy shall cover all areas of foreign policy and all questions
relating to the Union's security, including the progressive framing
of a common defence policy that might lead to a common
defence.[40]
With
both NATO and EU rapid reaction forces and numerous duplicate
structures (e.g., planning cells, military staffs, and the European
Defense Agency), the ESDP has undeniably created an overlap.
The Lisbon Treaty, which is currently undergoing ratification,
contains a new declaration on mutual defense that would directly
duplicate NATO's long-held Article V security guarantee.[41]
Rather than addressing Europe's individual or collective
weaknesses, the ESDP has created more problems than it has solved
and uproots the fundamental premise of the alliance. As
British Shadow Defense Secretary Dr. Liam Fox notes, "The EU
Constitution is reshaping our Defence Alliances by stealth away
from NATO and towards the EU."[42]
The
Lisbon Treaty will also assert the EU as a supranational actor on
the world stage in the place of nation-states. It creates, in all
but name, an EU Foreign Minister who is selected by a qualified
majority vote, not a unanimous vote. This EU official will
have:
- The power
to appoint EU envoys;
- A bigger
profile, budget, and diplomatic corps;
- The right
to speak on behalf of member states in multilateral institutions,
including in the U.N. Security Council upon request;
and
- The right
to propose EU military missions on behalf of the European
Commission.[43]
Brussels
clearly
intends to become the U.S. Administration's first port of call when
the U.S. is conducting foreign policy in Europe. However, the
Administration should not expect the same cooperative response
in Brussels that it receives within the NATO Alliance.
The
French Connection. When
President Nicolas Sarkozy addressed the U.S. Congress in
November 2007, he directly linked French readmission into
NATO's integrated military command structure with the development
of an autonomous EU defense identity. French Foreign Minister
Bernard Koucher recently restated that position[44]
and claimed that Washington finally "acknowledges the necessary
complementarity of the two organizations."[45]
The full development of an independent ESDP is a long-term French
foreign policy goal and will be the centerpiece of the French
Presidency of the European Union, starting July 1, 2008.[46]
However, France's dream can be realized only with both British
and American support.
Paris
is
offering Washington an increased French presence within NATO
operations in exchange for American support of an EU defense
identity.[47]
Washington should not be tempted to accept this offer, which would
bargain away the future of the transatlantic alliance for the
possibility of up to 1,000 more French troops in Afghanistan or for
some cosmetic diplomatic entente. As former U.K. Shadow Defence
Secretary Bernard Jenkin recommends, France's involvement with
NATO should be considered only if France reaffirms NATO
supremacy in European defense and security and if NATO can be
confident that France will not engage in deliberately disruptive
policies.[48]
France's
exclusion from NATO's integrated military command structures
does not prevent it from being a full and active member of the
alliance. France is a key NATO member, and approximately one-third
of its 10,000 forward-deployed troops are under NATO command.[49]
More than 1,500 French troops are participating in NATO's ISAF
mission,[50]
and Paris recently took command of KFOR, which has more than 2,200
French troops.
Detachment
from NATO's military command structures, following President
Charles de Gaulle's withdrawal in 1966, merely excludes Paris from
NATO's overall defense planning. However, it is a full member of
all key decision-making bodies and transformation initiatives,
including the Military Committee, ACT, and NRF,[51]
and currently has 290 military personnel in NATO.[52]
If France genuinely wants to contribute more to the Afghanistan
mission or to step up its influence within NATO, it can do so
quite easily without forcing Washington into an unholy
bargain.
The
United Kingdom needs to partner with the United States to present a
united front on this question. President Sarkozy's scheduled
state visit to the United Kingdom before the Bucharest Summit is no
coincidence.[53]
EU defense integration makes sense only with British involvement,
both because of the pitiful defense budgets of most European
countries and because their armies have far less operational
experience than Britain's battle-hardened troops.
Britain
has a
unique opportunity to withdraw itself from further EU integration
in this field and reassert the primacy of NATO. Although Britain
has lost its power to veto the integrationist plans of other member
states under the enhanced cooperation arrangements of the
Lisbon Treaty, it does have a modicum of opportunity to halt the
creation of a separate EU defense identity by virtue of its
superior defense position within Europe.[54]
However,
if Britain opts for deeper involvement in EU defense plans, this
will have profoundly negative consequences. Deeper involvement
in EU defense will detract from member states' NATO obligations and
further decouple the EU from NATO. The creation of duplicate
military structures and doctrines with autonomous decision-making
powers independent of NATO represents a major geopolitical rupture
between Europe and Washington that will serve neither side.
Although
the Lisbon Treaty reins in Britain's ability to veto
integration in the defense sphere, it cannot force Britain to
fund this dangerous endeavor. With one of the world's strongest and
ablest militaries, Britain has a practical, if not political,
veto that it should use to maximum effect. Although the
politics driving the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy
and ESDP cause incredible damage in and of themselves by
marginalizing U.S. influence in Europe, a military-ready EU force
operating independently of NATO would be far worse.
Washington
should
take care not to bypass the United Kingdom on this question. Prime
Minister Gordon Brown has been lukewarm on the question of further
EU defense integration, and Washington should not encourage Sarkozy
to outmaneuver Britain. The price being asked for any such
deal is already too high, but risking diplomatic damage to the
Anglo-American Special Relationship would be truly disastrous.
Although Washington is keen to cement the recent détente
with Paris, it needs to recognize that France's relatively recent
enthusiasm for the transatlantic alliance represents the
personal zeal of President Sarkozy and may not outlast his
administration.[55]
Bucharest
: An
Enlargement Summit
NATO
enlargement is a story of success. Bruce Jackson, president of the
Project on Transitional Democracies, argues that "we have never had
cause to regret an expansion decision."[56]
The fourth and fifth waves of accessions from Central and Eastern
Europe were especially significant and saw NATO securing its
post-Cold War democratic gains and fostering a sense of normalcy
for those countries.[57]
NATO is a successful security alliance, determined to confront
threats at home and abroad and solidify its democratic reach, and
its further enlargement makes sense.
The
aspirant countries of Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia undoubtedly
have political flaws, just as some of the accession countries of
1999 and 2004 had. However, they are European democracies on a long
road of political, social, and defense reform that are willing and
able to contribute to regional and international security. At a
time when larger, older member states are failing to fulfill their
alliance responsibilities adequately, expecting
perfection from smaller and poorer aspirant members is unfair,
especially when they are already contributing to NATO
missions.
The
Adriatic Three. To
the end that the Adriatic Three (A3) countries wish to produce, not
just consume, security, they have made significant progress.
They have worked steadily through the Membership Action Plan (MAP)
process, and the United States should work closely with them to
ensure that they are invited to become full members in
Bucharest.
The
United States and its NATO allies have shown tremendous leadership
in the Balkans, setting transformation agendas and demanding
democratic and free-market reforms in aspirant countries. The
U.S.-Adriatic Charter, which was signed by Albania, Croatia,
Macedonia, and the United States in 2003, not only propelled the
Adriatic countries toward the reforms necessary to secure NATO
membership, but also built solid diplomatic relations among
nations that are now mutually supportive and trustful of one
another. As these countries have pursued membership together and
proven their worth in theaters such as Afghanistan, they have
developed a certain amount of mutual trust and political capital,
creating increased stability and normalcy on a trilateral
basis.
The
A3 countries already work under NATO concepts and are rapidly
transforming their militaries from Soviet-era gigantism to
more mobile and expeditionary forces.
In
1990, Albania boasted an army in the hundreds of thousands,
focused solely on conventional threats. Current force strength is
approximately 16,000 troops and is on track to achieve its target
of complete modernization by 2010.[58]
Albania has also complied with the majority of the economic and
political demands of the MAP, including constitutionally
electing the president, creating a stable and growing economy, and
reaching the important NATO benchmark of spending 2 percent of GDP
on defense by 2008-two years ahead of schedule.[59]
Moreover, it has pledged to maintain this level of spending until
2020, a remarkable commitment by any standard.[60]
Albania
has
also shown itself to be a "fighting ally" of both NATO and the
United States. It sent combat forces to Iraq at the very beginning
of the invasion and maintains a significant contingent in Iraq
today.[61]
Albania currently manages multiple medical and combat deployments
in Afghanistan, having tripled its troop numbers since the start of
Operation Enduring Freedom,[62]
as well as participating in EU-FOR, the EU's operation in
Bosnia.[63]
It has contributed to NATO's Operation Endeavour in the
Mediterranean[64]
and in September 2007 was the first country to eliminate its
stock of chemical weapons.[65]
Croatia
has
also made significant progress toward membership by adopting a
national security strategy and increasing its mobile expeditionary
force posture. Like its co-aspirants, it has successfully
moved through the MAP cycles and fulfilled the technical criteria
for membership.[66]
Croatia
has
made extraordinary progress in reforming its armed services and
expects to become an immediate exporter of security upon accession,
sharing both the burdens and benefits of NATO membership.[67]
Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic recently announced that Zagreb was planning to increase its ISAF
contingent from 200 to 300 troops later this year.[68]
Croatian Defense Minister Branko Vukelic recently accepted that
reform must continue in key sectors, such as the judiciary and
public administration, and that accession would not signal the end
of political reform.[69]
Support for NATO membership has surged among Croatians, with 59.3
percent favoring membership in a poll on March 10.[70]
Macedonia
is
now a multiethnic, open society with a multilingual parliament and
few ethnic tensions. It has expressed a desire to become a
full member of the Euro-Atlantic community with the end goal of
fully integrating the Balkans into the Euro-Atlantic framework.
Significantly, it has a fully professional andmultiethnic armed
force.
With
defense spending well above 2 percent of GDP,[71]
cross-party support, widespread public support, and a
commitment to supporting NATO and the United States in both
Afghanistan and Iraq, Macedonia is a post-conflict country ready
for NATO membership. Foreign Minister Antonio Milososki has even
outlined an "ambitious plan" to increase the number of Macedonian
troops stationed in foreign territories-including Afghanistan,
Iraq, and Bosnia-Herzegovina-from 3.5 percent to 8 percent of
Macedonia's total army.[72]
The
A3 medical mission in Afghanistan exemplifies how serious the
A3 nations are about NATO accession and their obligations under the
U.S.-Adriatic Charter. Undoubtedly, much work still needs to
be done in these countries, and they must view NATO membership not
as an end to reform, but as a major milestone on the road to
further reform, especially if EU accession is to be kept on
track.
The
thorny issue of Macedonia's name should not be an impediment to the
successful enlargement of NATO at the Bucharest Summit, and the
United States must make it clear that a veto by Athens will not be
welcome. The United States recognized Macedonia in 2004 on a
bilateral basis, and NATO enlargement into the Balkans makes sense
politically and strategically. The NATO Alliance must not be
held hostage by this complex issue, which should ultimately be
resolved bilaterally under the auspices of the United
Nations.
Albanian
Minister of Defense Fatmir Mediu recently argued that the ultimate
benefit of NATO membership for the A3 countries will not be for the
West to bring security and stability to Southeast Europe, but for
the region to realize its own destiny.[73]
NATO membership will allow these aspirant countries to speak the
common language of freedom, liberty, and democracy and create
"a new dynamic in the region"[74]
after the horrors that followed the breakup of
Yugoslavia.
An
Open Door Policy. Granting
full NATO membership to the A3 countries and inviting Ukraine and
Georgia to join the Membership Action Plan would send a powerful
message that the Balkans are moving past their history of
conflict and are on the road to stability. In this region, once
isolated from the West by religious and ethnic
intolerance, incredible progress has been made, largely due to
NATO intervention, American leadership, and regional and political
reconciliation. NATO is a proven entity in the region that has
worked actively toward regional security and stability.
It is
important that NATO maintain its open door policy. Thus far, NATO
enlargement has been a success story, both for the alliance
and for the accession states. NATO enlargement has exemplified a
cooperative approach to security that has contributed
significantly to newly democratized members building modern
security sectors and becoming positive actors on the world stage.
Although Georgia and Ukraine have some ground to cover before
they should be treated as prospective members, they must be given
the tools with which to begin. The MAP process is one such
tool.
German
Minister of Defense Franz-Josef Jung has noted that "NATO is not
only a military alliance. It was and still is a community based on
values. Our door is open to those who are prepared to adopt the
principles that govern our Alliance."[75]
However, Chancellor Merkel's volte-face, recently implying
that Georgia and Ukraine should not be invited to join the MAP at
Bucharest, will be seen as nothing short of appeasement of
Russia.[76]
Significantly,
for the first time since the NATO- Russia Council was created in
2002, President Vladimir Putin will attend the annual NATO
summit, if only to further intimidate and threaten
Georgia and Ukraine.[77]
However, Russia's threats to aim nuclear missiles at Ukraine if the
two countries seek NATO membership will remind Kiev why it wanted
membership in the first place and should solidify the alliance's
intention to invite them to explore membership.[78]
As Senator McCain said:
These
two nations have every right to aspire to democracy and security as
other states closer to the heart of Europe. Ukraine and Georgia
have difficult neighbors and domestic challenges; they are young
democracies and their road ahead will be difficult. But they should
know that we will support them every step of the way, and we can
show them this by supporting their aspirations at Bucharest.[79]
What
the U.S. and NATO Should Do
At
the Bucharest Summit, the U.S. needs to push for reforms to mold
NATO into a modern, effective alliance that advances the interests
of the United States and other NATO members. Specifically, NATO
members should:
- Start
negotiating a revised strategic concept for NATO that
will outline the alliance's purpose, organization, and tasks
based on a shared threat perception. Its realm of operation must be
global, and its scope of action comprehensive.
- Reaffirm
that NATO is the cornerstone of the transatlantic
alliance and
the primary actor in European defense cooperation.
- Readmit
France into NATO's integrated military command structures only
if Paris
is willing to uphold the primacy of NATO in European defense
cooperation and the alliance can be confident that Paris will
be a cooperative rather than a confrontational partner.
- Begin
determining the NATO-EU relationship on a more systematic
basis. The
European Security and Defense Policy should be a civilian
complement to NATO missions, and its resources should be put
at NATO's disposal in a fashion similar to Berlin-Plus.
- Explicitly
reject any movement toward a two-tiered alliance and
reinforce this message with more equitable burden-sharing
arrangements. Specifically, the ACT must be given authority to
streamline and improve NATO's defense capabilities, members
need to meet the previously agreed benchmark of spending 2 percent
of GDP on defense, and the vast majority of national operational
caveats must be eliminated.
- Launch
a thorough public diplomacy effort to
communicate NATO's mission and purpose effectively, starting with a
domestic and international strategy for
Afghanistan.
- Conclude
a comprehensive strategic political and military plan for
Afghanistan that
makes a hard-hitting appraisal of what is needed, both politically
and militarily, to make Afghanistan a success and includes firm
guarantees from NATO members to eliminate caveats and address troop
shortfalls.
- Accept
Albania, Croatia, and Macedonia as full members of the
alliance and
invite Ukraine and Georgia to begin the Membership Action Plan
process. NATO should also clearly restate its open door
policy.
Conclusion
Washington
has a
small window of opportunity to mold NATO into a modern, effective
alliance that advances the interests the United States and the
other member countries. The United States will always retain the
option of unilateral intervention to defend its strategic
interests, but effective partnering with NATO is a sensible and
realistic way to formulate burden-sharing arrangements with
its European allies.
There
will always be serious threats to global security. If Europe's
major powers genuinely believe that the world's response to these
threats should be multilateral, they should invest in a thorough
reform and revitalization of NATO. Anything less than a high-level
endorsement of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic will doom it to
marginalization.
Sally McNamara is Senior
Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher
Center for Freedom, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby
Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage
Foundation. Erica Munkwitz assisted in preparing this paper. The
author is also grateful to James Phillips, Senior Research Fellow
for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center
for Foreign Policy Studies, and Lisa Curtis, Senior Research
Fellow for South Asia in the Asian Studies Center, at the Heritage
Foundation for their advice on Afghanistan.
[1] NATO's strategic
concept defines the alliance's basic objective. It establishes
NATO's aims and tasks and sets its priorities. It has evolved many
times since NATO's founding, most recently in April 1999, when
heads of state and government approved a new strategic concept at
the Washington Summit.
[11
]North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, Allied Command Transformation, "Vision Statement," at
www.act.nato.int/welcome/ mission.html (June 22, 2007;
unavailable March 17, 2008).
[13] Operation Concordia and
Operation Althea both employed large numbers of the same troops
from the preceding NATO contingent, who merely operated under a
different insignia.
[14] Carlo D'Este,
Eisenhower: A Soldier's Life (New York: Henry Holt and
Company, 2002), p. 693.
[22] "Afghan National
Army Captures Suicide Attack Facilitator," US Fed News, March 12,
2007.
[27] Scheffer, "Afghanistan
and NATO."
[28] NATO Army Colonel
Jeffrey Johnson recently noted that 79 percent of Afghans now have
access to health care services, compared to just 8 percent when the
Taliban government fell in 2001. See Gerry J. Gilmore, "Afghans
Make 'Tremendous Progress' in Health Care, U.S. Officer Says,"
American Forces Press Service, February 19, 2008, at www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=49007
(March 17, 2008).
[29] Cohen, "The Long Haul
in Afghanistan."
[33]
Ibid., paragraphs 7 and
8.
[40] Treaty of Lisbon,
Article 1, Sec. 27, p. 33, amending Article 11(a)(1).
[41] "If a Member
State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other
Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and
assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with
Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice
the specific character of the security and defence policy of
certain Member States." Treaty of Lisbon, Article 1, Sec. 49(c), p.
44, inserting Article 28 A(c)7.
[43] The High
Representative has the right to propose EU military missions on
behalf of the EU Commission, but unanimity voting will remain in
the European Council.
[49] "En garde: French
Defence Policy," The Economist, U.S. ed., January 19,
2008.
[51
]French Embassy Press and
Information Service, "News from France," February 22,
2008.
[54] "The Union shall
replace and succeed the European Community." Treaty of Lisbon,
Article 1, Sec. 2(b), p. 12, amending Article 1. Member states can
undertake "to establish enhanced cooperation between themselves
within the framework of the Union's non-exclusive competences."
Treaty of Lisbon, Article 1, Sec. 22, p. 30, amending Article
10(1).
[57] In the fourth
wave of accession, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland acceded
to NATO in 1999. In the fifth wave of accession, Bulgaria, Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia acceded in
2004.
[64] Mediu, address at
Defence Ministerial Meeting.
[66] European
Information Service, "NATO Enlargement May Be Slowed Down," March
10, 2008.
[67]Fran Visnar, "Croatia
to Export Security," BBC Monitoring International Reports,
March 10, 2008.
[68
]"Croatia Pleased with
Participation in NATO Conference," BBC Monitoring International
Reports, February 10, 2008.
[69] "Croatian Defence
Minister Pleased with Signals Given over NATO Entry at Munich,"
BBC Monitoring International Reports, February 10,
2008.
[70] "Latest Poll Shows
Nearly 60 Per Cent of Croats Support NATO Membership," BBC
Monitoring International Reports, March 10, 2008.
[71] England, "NATO in the 21st
Century."
[72] Jennifer Campbell,
"Macedonia Has Ambitious Plans," Ottawa Citizen, February
13, 2008.
[73] Atlantic Council, "NATO
Membership: Has the Time Come?" event, February 19,
2008.
[74] "NATO Chief
Offers Encouragement to Croatia's Membership Bid," BBC
Monitoring International Reports, February 9, 2008.
[76] United Press
International, "German Chancellor Skeptical on NATO Enlargement,"
March 10, 2008.
[77] John Vinocur,
"Will NATO Confront a Party-Crashing Putin?" International
Herald Tribune, February 26, 2008.