In the last few days, Moscow has beefed up its "peacekeeping
force" in the breakaway Abkhazia on the Black Sea, claiming it is
protecting Russian citizens, who are the majority population of
Abkhazia. Furthermore, Russian troops are amassing on the de-facto
Abkhazia-Georgia border. The Caucasus may be on the brink of a war.
At the same time, Russia has accused Georgia of planning to invade
Abkhazia, accusations that sound distinctly hollow under the
circumstances.
Throughout April, Russia has escalated its political and
military pressure on its neighbor Georgia. At the NATO summit in
Bucharest, President Vladimir Putin reportedly threatened to
recognize the independence of the breakaway autonomous republics of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia was granted a Membership
Action Plan (MAP) for eventual accession to NATO. On April 16,
despite France and Germany balking at providing a MAP, and
apparently as retribution for the West's recognition of Kosovo's
independence, Putin instructed the Russian Foreign Ministry to
upgrade the legal and economic ties between Russia and the
secessionist governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, violating
Georgian sovereignty.
More recently, on April 20, according to Georgian reports, a
Russian MiG-29 fighter shot down an unmanned Georgian aerial
reconnaissance vehicle in violation of Georgian airspace. Despite
some Russian concessions in its bilateral relations with Tbilisi,
Russian hostility toward Georgia does not seem to be abating.
Unity Against Threat. The question that faces Europe and
the U.S. is how to stop Russia's violation of Georgia's sovereignty
and territorial integrity. For that, Washington needs to secure
Western unity in firm opposition to Russia's irresponsible policies
and actions.
Western allies should recognize that Russia's bullying behavior
against its neighbors is against Moscow's long-term security
interests. A cooperative and rule-abiding Russia already is in
part, and may increasingly evolve more completely into, a security
and business partner for Europe and the United States. On the other
hand, a Russia that reverts to the old imperialist modes of
operation is nothing but trouble and a source for security concerns
near and far.
America's European partners, including Germany and France,
should take Russia's expansionist rhetoric and deeds seriously and
oppose them vigorously. The West should not allow Russia's
violation of Georgia's territorial integrity to drive a wedge
between the U.S. and its European allies. The U.S. and its European
allies should express full diplomatic support to Georgia with
regard to its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The West should heed Georgia's call to convene emergency
meetings at the U.N. Security Council and the Organization for
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to discuss Russia's
April 16 decision to expand its ties with Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. The West should persuade Russia to pull out its soldiers
from the peacekeeping contingents in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and
replace them with U.N. or OSCE-approved peacekeeping forces that
could include troops from, for example, Ukraine, Romania, and
Poland as its lead contingents.
Sovereignty Threatened. About two weeks after the
Bucharest meeting, President Putin instructed his Foreign Ministry
to prepare measures to "create mechanisms of comprehensive defense
of the rights, freedoms and lawful interests of the Russian
citizens living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia." The majority of the
Abkhaz and South Ossetians hold Russian passports and participated
in the Russian parliamentary and presidential elections.
According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Putin also ordered
the Russian government to work together with the breakaway
governments to "organize cooperation in the trade, economic, social
and techno-scientific fields and in the spheres of information,
culture and education, particularly with the enlistment of Russia's
regions."
Putin also ordered the Russian government to recognize the
legality of corporate entities registered in these often-lawless
regions, and "to cooperate with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the
framework of legal assistance in civil, family and criminal
matters." Russian Foreign Ministry consular offices would provide
consular services for the enclaves' residents.
Moscow's Frustration. There are at least two reasons for
Russia's heavy-handed policies toward Georgia. First, Russian
diplomats and analysts have repeatedly declared since at least 2007
that Kosovo's declaration of independence and recognition by the
U.S. and the major Western powers would lead to recognition of
pro-Russian secessionist regimes, including Transnistria in
Moldova, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The second reason is Russia's
adamant opposition to the U.S.-supported bid by Georgia to become a
NATO member.
A week before the Bucharest summit, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov declared that "it would be a very dangerous game if
they [Georgia] secure NATO support and solve conflicts in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia by force.... Abkhazia and South Ossetia can't
even think about Georgia joining NATO. It's impermissible to play
with fire." During the NATO summit in Bucharest, President Putin
warned President Bush that if Georgia were offered a MAP, Moscow
would establish a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Putin added
that NATO's eastward expansion would be a threat to the interests
of Russia, which would be forced to undertake "appropriate
counter-measures."
Track Record of Bullying. Georgia was a colonial
dependency of the Russian Empire, and later the Soviet Union, since
the late 18th century. Even after the USSR collapsed, Moscow
continued to bully Tbilisi. In 1992-1993, after Georgia attempted
to prevent secession of Abkhazia by force, Russia has armed and
supported the Abkhaz separatists and deployed Chechen "volunteers"
to fight alongside them. The result was the de-facto secession of
Abkhazia and the ethnic cleansing of over 300,000 Georgians from
their homes. The notorious late Islamist warlord Shamil Basaev,
later the military leader of the Chechen rebels, fought in Abkhazia
in the early 1990s as a Russian mercenary. Abkhazia has turned into
a cigarette-smuggling criminal gang heaven.
In March 2006, the Kremlin slapped economic sanctions on
Tbilisi, including restrictions on the importation of Georgian
wine, mineral water, fruits, and vegetables. Georgia used to export
90 percent of its wine to Russia. In September 2006, after Georgia
briefly arrested four Russian military intelligence officers, the
Russian government imposed a ban on entry visas for Georgians,
affecting hundreds of thousands who work in Russia and support
their families back home. Russia severed all air, rail, and postal
communications with Georgia as part of its punishment. In December
2006, the Russian energy giant Gazprom more than doubled the price
of natural gas, previously sold to Georgia at a deep discount. And
in August 2007, two Russian Su-24 ground attack jets launched a
1,000 kg precision-guided missile near a village 50 miles north of
Tbilisi.
This month, however, Putin ordered the lifting of visa
restrictions, initiated bilateral talks to discuss the resumption
of Georgian exports to Russia, and reopened a border crossing
between the two countries. He also ordered commercial passenger
flights and postal links reestablished. The relaxation of the visa
restrictions and lifting of the trade ban appear designed to soften
the impact of Moscow's expansion of ties with Abkhazia and South
Ossetia.
What Should the West Do?
Washington should not allow Russian opposition to a NATO MAP for
Georgia to become an issue between the U.S. and its European
allies. Instead, NATO countries should show unity in the face of a
Russian assault on Georgia's territorial integrity. In response to
Moscow's heavy-handed policies against Georgia, the U.S. and its
European allies should:
- Denounce Russian occupation of Abkhazia. US and the
European countries should coordinatea diplomatic response, taking
Russia's expansionist rhetoric and performance seriously and launch
vigorous protests against them.
- Heed Georgia's call to convene emergency meetings at the
U.N. Security Council and the OSCE to discuss Russia's decision to
expand its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia and express full
support of Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty,
- Support Georgia's demand that Russia pull out its
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) "peacekeeping"contingents
from the two breakaway regions and replace them with a U.N. and/or
OSCE-approved peacekeeping force that could include Ukrainian,
Romanian, and Polish peacekeepers.
Conclusion
Russia's behavior toward Georgia should serve as a warning to
Europe and the U.S. Georgia may be a new canary in the geopolitical
mine of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The Kremlin is testing Western
resolve to stand up to its ambitions in the post-Soviet space.
Failure to stop Russian interventionism in Georgia could mean
opening the floodgates of border revisions and destabilization
masquerading as "defense of Russian citizens" in the CIS. This may
be a prescription for escalating conflicts in the East, which
Europe, eventually, would not be able to ignore. In turn, the U.S.
and Europe could offer Russia incentives if it abandons its
attempts to absorb Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Russian
Federation or to recognize their independence.
Ariel Cohen,
Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and
Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas
and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of
the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.