With employment contracting in June, the American economy
continues to stall.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last month
businesses reduced employment opportunities by 62,000 while the
unemployment rate remained constant at 5.5 percent. The
construction and manufacturing industries continued to be hard hit
by job losses in this business cycle.
June Jobs Report
June was the sixth straight month of job losses for the economy,
for a total of 438,000 jobs lost in 2008. The unemployment rate has
increased from 4.9 percent in January to 5.5 percent in June.
Private-sector employment declined by 91,000 jobs, but increased
government hiring of 29,000 jobs offset some of the job losses. The
labor force participation rate declined slightly, from 66.2 percent
to 66.1 percent in the last month, due to the survey reports of a
large number of teenagers exiting the labor force.
The housing market crash continues to cause job losses in the
construction sector. Construction accounted for two-thirds of total
job losses (43,000). The construction industry has shed 450,000
jobs in the past year. The manufacturing sector also lost 33,000
jobs in June and slightly over 200,000 jobs since the start of
2008.
The service sector increased employment by 7,000 jobs, with the
bulk in education, health, leisure, and government. Retail trade
lost 8,000 jobs, most being associated with the slumping automotive
industry. More worrying is that professional and business services
reduced employment by 51,000. While professional services such as
accounting and engineering added a small number of jobs, business
support services lost 70,200. Employment services, such as
temporary help agencies, accounted for almost the entire decline.
This indicates that companies are not using temporary help but are
instead cutting back activities and are not looking to increase
employment opportunities in the short term.
The number of hours worked shrank even as the number of workers
declined. The index of aggregate weekly hours shrank to 107.0, the
lowest level in over a year. Earnings per hour did increase
slightly by 6 cents an hour or 0.3 percent.
The May jobs report noted an unusual increase of teens in the
labor market. This month saw a sharp decline in teen labor force
participation as the survey corrected for last month's
overrepresentation of teenagers. As a result, teen unemployment
fell to 18.1 percent, still far higher than the adult unemployment
rate of 5.5 percent. Teenagers in the May jobs report continues to
explain why there was such a sharp jump in the unemployment rate
but no change this month despite additional job losses.
The number of long-term unemployed workers (workers unemployed
for longer than 15 weeks) increased by five percent in the last
month. Long-term unemployed workers now account for over one-third
of all unemployed workers, with almost a third unemployed for less
than five weeks. The average duration of unemployment jumped to
17.5 weeks, the longest duration in over two and half years.
No Time for Tax Hikes
Most economists agree that the government should not raise taxes
during times of economic weakness. Yet that is what many in
Congress are proposing. Some suggest that the 2001 and 2003 tax
relief should be allowed to expire in a year and a half. Other
members of Congress want to impose an over $60 billion tax hike to
"offset" the decision not to increase the Alternative Minimum Tax.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama has proposed lifting
the cap on the payroll tax, raising the top tax rate above 50
percent.
Raising taxes reduces the incentive to work, save, and invest.
It discourages the wealth-creating activities needed to bring the
economy out of the doldrums. Tax increases are rarely good policy,
but they are especially inappropriate given the current state of
the economy. Congress should restrain its eagerness to tax and
spend.
A Bad Economic Climate
This jobs report indicates that the United States' economy
continues to struggle. Employment is a lagging indicator, so the
job market will continue to worsen even as the overall economy
strengthens. This is why the labor market was robust even as the
economy weakened. Now it appears that weaknesses in the labor
market are echoing the overall weakness of the general economy.
Congress should not raise taxes in this economic climate.
Rea S. Hederman,
Jr., is a senior policy analyst and the assistant director at
The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis. James Sherk is the Bradley
Fellow in Labor Policy at The Heritage Foundation.