While all the facts of last week's Russian-Georgian war are not
clear, enough information--including eyewitness accounts--has been
reported in the media to draw initial conclusions about the
performance of Russian military forces and the implications of
these operations for U.S. defense policies. Unquestionably, the war
is a reminder that "conventional" military operations as an
instrument of modern combat are far from obsolete. The U.S. and its
allies must retain a robust conventional capacity to deter
aggression and assist in the defense of its treaty obligations to
NATO and other allies.
Lightning War
While terrorism remains a 21st century scourge, the Russian
incursion serves as proof that the age of conventional warfare is
far from over. After weeks of mortar attacks and shootings by rebel
forces in secessionist South Ossetia targeting Georgian villages
and outposts, hostilities escalated on the evening of August 7 with
a Georgian artillery and rocket barrage against rebel positions. On
August 8, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili launched Operation
"Clear Field" to put an end to the South Ossetian fire and restore
control over the breakaway region. That same day, Russian forces
began to pour into South Ossetia and beyond, pushing back Georgian
military forces. The number of Russian military involved in the
operation--reportedly as high as 25,000 troops backed by over 1,000
armored vehicles, artillery, rocket forces, and airpower[1]--overwhelmed Georgian forces.
On August 13, Russian land forces advanced from South Ossetia
and entered Gori, south of South Ossetia and straddling Georgia's
main central highway and railway line. The conflict quickly
expanded into Georgia's rebel region of Abkhazia along the Black
Sea coast. There, the Russian forces, with the help of Abkhazian
irregulars, marched south. By August 18, Russian forces established
positions only 40 kilometers from the Georgian capital. The Black
Sea Fleet blocked Georgia's main commercial port of Poti, and
Russian airborne troops coming from Abkhazia occupied the port,
effectively closing the main entry point for imports not just for
Georgia but also for Armenia and Azerbaijan. A Russian armored
column then advanced to within 50 kilometers of Kutaisi, the
country's second largest city. Using overpowering force, the
Russian incursion faced no effective opposition.
Assessment of Russian Military
Operations
The war appears to reflect comprehensive and systematic planning
by the Russian general staff. As a result of this planning, the
combined operations were well prepared and well executed, employing
combat, support, and logistical forces as well as pre-positioned
ships and planes. Most likely employing deception to mask
operational preparations, the Russian offensive achieved a
strategic surprise. The Russian army conducted a two-pronged
offensive against Georgia from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. By
conducting more than one offensive operation, the Russians
prevented the Georgians from concentrating their forces, a military
tactic representative of classic Russian operational art.
The main Russian ground forces involved in the invasion of
Georgia belonged to the 58th Army and are veterans of the 1999
invasion and ongoing occupation of Chechnya. Ground forces also
included elite Guard divisions and "special forces" such as
airborne troops and Spetsnaz (special operations forces). Many of
the tanks, armored personnel vehicles, and armored personnel
carriers used by the 58th Army are older Soviet models but were
employed in overwhelming numbers. Some of the older tanks, like the
T-62, have been photographed with recent bar armor to protect
against anti-tank rocket propelled grenades, while T-72 tanks have
been provided with explosive reactive armor protection. Several
units were made up entirely of professional soldiers--as opposed to
conscripts--and most likely represented a test of all-contract
soldier units in major military operations. (For force structure,
see table below.)
The air force carried out close air support operations,
primarily using SU-25 ("Frogfoot") fighter-bombers--which belong to
Front Aviation--to neutralize Georgian forces on the ground. Other
missions included the bombing of strategic targets such as Georgian
air and military bases, radar and communications sites and civilian
buildings and the failed attempts to bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline. Supersonic Tupolev Tu-22M3 ("Backfire")
strategic bombers--belonging to the Long-Range Aviation--also
participated in the bombing raids. Transport Aviation ferried
airborne forces and supplies to the theaters of military
operations.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet carried out operations with the
participation of the fleet's flagship, the guided-missile cruiser
Moskva. Fleet units reportedly sunk a Georgian patrol boat
in combat. The Russian military has blown up eight Georgian naval
ships at the port of Poti. According to Georgian sources, Russia
used amphibious landing ships to transport troops to Abkhazia. In
addition, logistic support ships were reported to have transported
relief supplies for refugees.
The Russian military has used over a dozen of Tochka-U (SS-21
"Scarab") short-range ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander SRBM
(SS-26 "Stone") on targets throughout the Georgian theater,
including the BTC pipeline and the town of Gori.
Along with the use of conventional weapons, Russia conducted
information and psychological warfare, though the full extent of
these operations remains unclear. Georgian officials reported
cyberattacks on government websites as well as Internet servers.
Allegations of widespread efforts to spread disinformation,
intimidate the population, and foster criminal activity (such as
looting, rape, kidnapping, and ethnic reprisals) have also been
made.
Lessons Learned
The age of conventional warfare is far from over. For the U.S.
and NATO to maintain both a credible conventional deterrent and the
capacity to aid friends and allies, each must retain the
"traditional" robust capacity to meet conventional threats,
including the following:
- Marshalling the "strategic enablers" that allow for the
projection of military power including gaining and maintaining sea
control, air supremacy, rapid strategic transport, expeditionary
logistical support, and the means to defeat "anti-access"
strategies that seek to prevent the deployment of forces into a
theater;
- Improving the capability to rapidly strike mobile armored
forces;
- Developing the means to defeat mortar, artillery, rocket, and
missile forces that can be targeted at both military forces and
civilian populations; and
- Sufficient forces to meet multiple deployment requirements on
short notice.
In addition, instead of preparing for "asymmetrical" or
"unconventional" threats (such as terrorism and cyberwarfare) as
alternatives to conventional conflict, the U.S. and NATO defense
policies must recognize that future conflicts could well be an
admixture of both. Thus, military modernization and readiness
should not sacrifice preparation for conventional conflicts in
order to plan for new ways of war. Modern militaries must prepare
for both. In particular, NATO and the U.S. must each:
- Improve capacity to conduct both offensive and defensive
cyberwarfare; and
- Place renewed emphasis on psychological operations, deception,
and other forms of information warfare in all types of
conflict.
Next Strategic Steps
Revitalizing the conventional capabilities of NATO forces to be
part of an integrated geo-strategic effort sends an unequivocal
message that naked territorial aggression is unacceptable against
members of the alliance and other friendly and allied
countries.
As President George W. Bush has stated, "aggression should not
stand." Subsequently, the U.S. should do the following:
- Rebuild the unity of NATO by bringing together all
members with shared defense concerns;
- Proceed with the building of a missile defense system in
Central Europe;
- Accept Ukraine's offer to include its early warning
radars into the ABM system; and
- Proceed with issuing NATO Membership Action Plans (MAPs)
for Georgia and Ukraine.
After an almost 20-year hiatus, the United States and NATO
allies may once again prioritize Russia as a potential threat to
the common European security. NATO should send a strong signal to
Moscow that its aggression will not stand. This should be done
through diplomacy, international organizations, and inventive
economic measures. The U.S., its allies, and Europe must do
everything possible to reverse Russian aggression against Georgia
and to prevent hostile action against European countries.
Ariel
Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and
Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security and James
Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies
and Senior Research Fellow for National Security and Homeland
Security, in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation.
Lajos Szaszdi, Ph.D., is an energy researcher at the Davis
Institute.