South African President Thabo Mbeki has finally been ousted by
his political rivals in the ruling African National Congress (ANC),
and for many the move comes none too soon. Mbeki leaves a less than
stellar legacy: He is perceived broadly as an arrogant
pseudo-intellectual who endangered the country's fight against
HIV/AIDS, disingenuously promoted black economic empowerment that
merely helped widen the gap between South Africa's rich and poor,
and propped up Robert Mugabe as one of Africa's remaining dictators
while millions of Zimbabweans fled violence and hunger. Mbeki also
never missed an opportunity to embarrass the U.S and relished his
self-appointed position as a leader within the developing world and
purveyor of anti-Western Marxist theology. The U.S loses little
with Mbeki's departure and stands to gain in its strategically
important relationship with South Africa.
Three years after Mbeki fired his deputy president, Jacob Zuma,
the shoe is on the other foot. Mbeki's forced resignation,
effective September 25, followed a contentious meeting of the
senior ANC leadership and cleared the path for ANC President Zuma
to assume South Africa's presidency through national elections in
six months. Along with Mbeki, 10 cabinet ministers and three deputy
ministers jumped before they were pushed out of government. The
only minister among the group of real consequence to South Africa's
stability and future is Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, who has
already let it be known that he would serve under new leadership if
asked.
The crisis between Mbeki and Zuma has been building for years
and came to a head when Judge Chris Nicholson threw out a
corruption case against Zuma on technical grounds and indicated
that Zuma's prosecution was politically motivated, a charge Mbeki
vigorously denied in his resignation speech. With Mbeki gone, ANC
deputy leader Kgalema Motlanthe will serve as the placeholder
president until next year's elections.
Mbeki, Your Shoes Are Too Big
Mbeki took over the presidency from Nelson Mandela at a time of
great hope within South Africa, as democracy and stability had led
many to expect transformational social change. Instead, Mbeki used
the international stage to promote lofty pan-African goals while
leaving many basic domestic challenges unsolved. His notions of an
"African Renaissance" were juxtaposed to South Africa's growing
crime rate, dramatic income disparities, and growing HIV/AIDS
burden. Perhaps most ironic was Mbeki's promotion of the New
Economic Partnership for Africa and its largely smoke-and-mirrors
"peer review" mechanism to measure progress and reform among
African states.
Mbeki's inconceivable stance on the causes of HIV/AIDS, his
resistance to the introduction of life-saving antiretroviral drug
treatments, and his willingness to keep an incompetent health
minister far too long endangered the lives of millions of people in
one of the world's highest HIV/AIDS prevalent countries. The South
Africa passed on by Mbeki resembles two countries in one, and the
instituted Black Economic Empowerment programs merely catapulted a
small number of South Africa's political black elite into the ranks
of the privileged while leaving the masses without such basic needs
as clean water, electricity, and housing-let alone jobs.
Mbeki's legacy will forever bear the stigma of his "quiet
diplomacy" approach toward Zimbabwe's anything-but-quiet economic
implosion and political crisis. To his shame, Mbeki continually
threw a lifeline to the dictator Mugabe while confounding efforts
by civil society to promote democracy. His bias in favor of the
Mugabe regime became so abundantly clear that the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lost complete faith in his
ability to mediate. Now that Mbeki is out of power, the door should
be shut firmly behind him as broker in the Zimbabwe power-sharing
deal.
The U.S. and South Africa: A New
Beginning
Mbeki supporters and South Africa's opposition parties portray a
country in crisis and an ANC at war with itself, yet there is
little evidence that South Africa's transfer of power shows cause
for immediate alarm. Zuma, South Africa's president-in-waiting, has
confidently pointed toward policy continuity, and it seems clear
that the much relied upon Trevor Manuel will continue to steer the
country's economic ship.
With Mbeki gone, the U.S. should move quickly to recast its
relationship with South Africa by doing the following:
- The U.S. government, including Members of Congress, should
prioritize contact with South Africa's new leadership, whether at
the U.N. General Assembly this month or by sending a senior
delegation to South Africa, to show eagerness to work with the new
administration on shared interests.
- The U.S. should focus early collaboration with South African
President Motlanthe and ANC President Zuma on pushing the
power-sharing deal forward in Zimbabwe and working jointly to
identify the country's humanitarian assistance needs.
- The U.S. should strongly encourage South Africa to reject Mbeki
as regional mediator for the Zimbabwe crisis and throw its weight
behind AU and Tanzanian President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete as Africa's
guarantor of the agreement.
- Within 12 months, the U.S. should work with South Africa's new
leadership to reinvigorate bilateral and/or regional trade talks
with a view toward a U.S.-South Africa free trade agreement.
- The U.S. should offer substantial new HIV/AIDS technical and
financial assistance to reinvigorate South Africa's fight against
the epidemic.
- The U.S. should engage South Africa's new leaders immediately
on military cooperation, especially in support of regional
peacekeeping and the development of the U.S. Africa Command.
An Investment in the Future
South Africa is strategically important to Africa's future and
should be a key ally for the U.S. Mbeki was no friend of America,
and his departure opens the door for a new era of U.S.-South
African cooperation. The partnership should start by tackling the
gravest threat to regional peace and stability-Zimbabwe. South
Africa must relieve Mbeki of his mediator's role in Zimbabwe, and
the U.S. should immediately deploy its technical and planning
capabilities to help South Africa and the African Union provide
much needed humanitarian assistance. The U.S. and South Africa
share a broad range of interests in Africa and beyond, and outreach
now to strengthen the relationship will pay dividends for years to
come.
Thomas M. Woods is Senior
Associate Fellow in African Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center
for Freedom, and Ray Walser,
Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the
Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, both
divisions of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.