This week, General Motors and Chrysler returned to Washington
with their reorganization plans to allegedly put them on a path
toward long-term sustainability. The stunning part of the plan was
their double-down request for nearly $22 billion in additional
loans, making it even clearer they are unlikely to pay back the
taxpayer.
These plans were required as a condition of their $17.4 billion
in bailout loans last December. With the $39.4 billion in loans to
GM and Chrysler, the auto suppliers asking for $25.5 billion, and
the $25 billion in federal loans for automobile manufacturers to
develop more efficient and cleaner vehicles, the total comes to
$97.4 billion.
While the problems of GM and Chrysler have certainly been
exacerbated by the economic downturn and the credit crunch, they
have been hampered by long-term problems such as high labor costs,
legacy costs, and inefficient dealer networks.[1] Using taxpayer money
to bail out Detroit was not a good idea in the first place, and
nothing has changed to make it a good idea now; Congress should not
throw good money after bad. Bankruptcy remains the better
option-for taxpayers and for the automakers themselves.
Poor Sales Numbers
There is little doubt that auto manufacturers-or at least some
of them-are in real trouble. For the month of January, GM's sales
plunged 49 percent, and Chrysler's fell 55 percent. Non-Detroit
companies did not perform much better: Toyota's sales dropped 32
percent, Nissan's 30 percent, and Honda's 28 percent. Only two
companies posting sales numbers in the green: Subaru with an 8
percent sales increase and Hyundai with a 14 percent sales
increase.[2]
In a recessionary environment, there is no indication that sales
will increase any time soon for GM and Chrysler. Having the
government prop up a failing industry does not signal to consumers
that these two companies are on the road to recovery. In reality,
few people fail to recognize that GM and Chrysler are in very
serious trouble-auto firms have hardly kept their woes a secret.
Moreover, the companies' plans for long-term viability do nothing
to assuage that recognition. Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) recently
remarked, "The plans fail to demonstrate that either GM or Chrysler
can reduce its labor costs to match its competitors. They also fail
to show that the companies can reverse the decades-long slide in
their market share."[3]
The Plans: More Money, Optimistic, and
Incomplete
GM was asked to include baseline, upside, and downside scenarios
in its plan, and given current economic conditions, the downside
scenario will be closest to reality. This scenario calls for $16.6
billion in taxpayer-funded loans, which would bring the total to
over $30 billion (counting the bailout from last December). In
addition to asking the U.S. government for money, GM is also
requesting $6 billion in loans from foreign governments. They plan
to cut 47,000 jobs while focusing solely on the Chevrolet,
Cadillac, Buick, and GMC brands. All new models will be
high-mileage cars and crossovers, and they plan to recommit to
hybrids, fuel efficiency, and advanced propulsion. In order to
achieve sustainable profitability in two years, they plan to phase
out Hummer, Saab, and Saturn.[4]
Chrysler is requesting an additional $5 billion from the
government in their plan, bringing the total that Congress has
"loaned" the company to $9 billion. The company plans to reduce
jobs by 3,000, cut factory capacity, and remove the Chrysler Aspen,
Dodge Durango, and Chrysler PT Cruiser models from their line.
Chrysler also hopes to be at the forefront in terms of fuel
efficiency, low emissions, and electric car development and
commercialization. Chrysler maintained that a partnership with GM
is one of the company's available options.[5]
Both plans, however, are incomplete. GM and Chrysler have until
the end of March to reach agreements with the United Auto Workers
and bondholders to cut costs. The Presidential Task Force on Autos,
led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic
Council Director Lawrence Summers, will begin reviewing the plans
immediately.
Bankruptcy: Still the Best Option
GM has claimed that even a structured bankruptcy could
ostensibly cost the taxpayers approximately $100 billion for
payouts for pension plans. Some, however, have called GM's use of
the $100 billion figure a scare tactic, and bankruptcy expert and
New York University business professor Edward I. Altman conjectured
that it could simply be part of GM's strategy not to be forced into
bankruptcy.[6]
The bankruptcy process is often the best way for troubled
enterprises to get back on their feet. Debts are reduced or
cancelled and contracts terminated or renegotiated, allowing firms
to get a fresh start. And if a firm still cannot be made viable,
bankruptcy also provides for an orderly and predictable process for
getting assets-including plants and equipment-back into productive
use by others.
There are, of course, losers under bankruptcy. Management is
more likely to be replaced, but that might be deserved.
Shareholders lose their investment, but stock values are worth
little already.
The most sweeping argument against bankruptcy is that millions
of people employed by the automakers and by firms dependent on them
will lose their jobs. The reality is just the opposite. The
government should not prop up large, failing firms where consumers
do not wish to purchase their products. The result would be sales
lots full of GM and Chrysler cars and a loss of innovation and
efficiency. Imagine if the government propped up the VCR industry
while DVDs were available on the market.
Furthermore, bankruptcy does not mean an end to operations:
Firms routinely continue operations while in the bankruptcy
process. Moreover, even the worst-case scenario-liquidation-does
not mean vaporization. The assets of a firm do not vanish. Rather,
they are resold to others more able to make productive use of
them.[7]
Yes, jobs will be lost under bankruptcy, but these companies
must become smaller to survive under any scenario-even with massive
bailouts. In their bailout plans, for example, GM and Chrysler
proposed to cut 50,000 jobs globally. If the companies were forced
to address their problems and make the hard choices now-rather than
postponing them through taxpayer bailouts-it will lead to more jobs
and a better economy over the long term.
Sliding Down the Slippery Slope
Even if, as the automakers claim, bankruptcy would somehow cost
taxpayers $100 billion-an unlikely scenario-the U.S. auto industry,
including suppliers, propose government funding that totals $97.4
billion to get through the economic recession and transition to
building more fuel efficient cars.[8] If the recession lasts longer
than expected or consumers simply choose not to buy GM and
Chrysler's cars, the $97.4 billion figure will likely grow larger.
It is no surprise that GM and Chrysler are already asking for more
money and it certainly will not be surprising if they come knocking
back for more. But these bailouts provide no incentive to truly
formulate a plan for long-term sustainability.
Even after $17.4 billion in loans, GM and Chrysler are still in
trouble. While the current economic downturn has unquestionably
exacerbated their problems, the crisis has been long in the making,
fed by bad business decisions and failures to control costs.
Congress correctly rejected the automakers' first request for
government loans in December, but to the dismay of the nation, the
Bush Administration conceded to Detroit's plea. Congress and the
Obama Administration must stand strong and reject GM and Chrysler's
attempt to extract more money from the taxpayer.
Nicolas D. Loris is a Research
Assistant in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy
Studies at The Heritage Foundation.