Recently, both China and Russia have called for the replacement
of the dollar as the international reserve currency of choice,
suggesting use of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) instead. Don't
rush to sell your greenbacks, however: The proposal has far more to
do with the theater of international diplomacy than the workings of
the world economy.
Even as he made the proposal, Chinese central banker Zhou
Xiaochun acknowledged that it would require "extraordinary
political vision and courage." That is diplomatic speak for "We
know this is impossible." The fact that Zhou and his Russian
counterpart in proposing the idea, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin,
placed the timeline for the change far in the future--30 years in
the case of Kudrin--offers an additional strong clue that the
proposal is politically motivated rather than intended to address a
real and pressing economic problem.
For both Zhou and Kudrin, an attack on the dollar just before
the G-20 economic summit is a great theatrical device with which to
express displeasure at U.S. dominance of the international
financial system. It is also a marker of their unhappiness with the
ineffective U.S. approach to restoring world growth and protecting
international trade and financial flows, sending a clear signal
that they have no intention of rubber-stamping U.S. proposals at
the summit.
The Dollar Works for Everybody
The U.S. dollar is currently the principal international reserve
currency, a role it assumed following the collapse of the gold
standard and the dissolution of the British Empire in the second
half of the 20th century. The U.S. gains significant advantages
from the use by others of the dollar as a reserve currency:
Worldwide demand for dollars helps keep the value of the dollar
high, meaning imported goods--including basic commodities like
oil--are cheaper for Americans. The willingness of foreigners to
hold dollar stocks (or dollar-denominated assets such as U.S.
Treasury securities) makes possible the long-running U.S. trade
deficit, to the benefit of American consumers.
Some assert that there is a corresponding cost to U.S.
producers, who lose export opportunities or even jobs to foreign
producers because of the high value of the dollar--a logical idea
that holds true for countries whose currency is not held as a
reserve. In most countries, if its currency appreciates in value,
its exports become more expensive and demand for them decreases.
However, demand for U.S. exports has consistently risen, even as
the value of the dollar remained high. The reason is that the value
to other countries of the dollar as a reserve currency creates
additional demand for the dollar over and above what would be
generated by normal trade flows. Thus people are willing to sell
Americans more goods than they otherwise would in order to get
extra dollars to hold as reserves. But they still want to buy U.S.
goods and services, too.
The benefits for other countries are substantial as well. The
utility of the reserve currency function--having a stable and
readily convertible commodity (the dollar in this case) in which to
hold wealth--is self-evident. The dollar provides a readily
available medium of exchange; it can be used to pay for almost
anything. Furthermore, consumers can also be confident that the
dollar will buy about as much tomorrow as it buys today. It is hard
to imagine international trade without some medium of exchange like
the dollar.
Even more important, however, is the additional demand created
in the United States for exports from other countries--a byproduct
of strong global desire for dollars. This U.S. consumer demand has
served as the primary engine of growth for the world economy.
Worldwide, that growth has lifted millions of people out of poverty
over the last decade. For China, this export-led growth has fueled
job creation that promotes social stability and raises incomes, at
least in certain sectors and geographic areas that have been
permitted by the authoritarian Chinese government to link to the
global economy.
An Unrealistic Solution to a
Non-Existent Problem
The creation of a new international reserve currency to replace
the dollar is a solution looking for a problem. So far, the dollar
is working just fine as a reserve currency. The continued strength
of the dollar testifies to its continued utility as a reserve
currency and the confidence of the markets in its future value.
That confidence extends, by the way, to the Russian and Chinese
governments, both of which continue to hold large stocks of
dollars.
In contrast, there are many reasons why moving to an SDR makes
no sense:
- The SDR has no intrinsic value. The SDR is backed by
nothing other than the good faith and credit, if you will, of the
IMF. It has no intrinsic value and, at the moment at least, can't
be used to purchase anything. It is true that people like to say
that the dollar is backed only by the good faith and credit of the
U.S. government. In reality, however, the dollar is backed by the
goods and services produced by the American people and their
willingness to trade those goods and services for dollars. With
this willingness to trade real things for dollars extending to
people around the world, the value of the dollar becomes backed not
just by the U.S. people or the U.S. government but by literally all
the world's producers and consumers interconnected through global
supply chains: Arab oil traders, Bangladeshi textile producers,
Japanese and Korean auto manufacturers, and, yes, even Russian
finance ministers and Chinese central bankers. The IMF, by
contrast, produces nothing.
- A one-size-fits-all international currency will not meet
diverse world needs. Countries growing at different rates have
different monetary policy needs. Faster-growing countries need a
more rapidly increasing supply of money. Slower-growing countries
must have less in order to prevent inflation. The SDR could not
accommodate these differing needs. Its value is set by the policies
of the IMF, which in turn are subject to the competing political
and economic interests of international diplomats.
- Embracing the SDR will result in a loss of transparency.
The process of setting the supply and value of the dollar is highly
transparent. People around the world know exactly what the Federal
Reserve is doing as it adds dollars to the system or adjusts
interest rates. Even the rationale for the changes is quickly
apparent from Fed statements and the open grilling to which the
U.S. subjects Fed governors. The IMF is far more opaque: Each
country's representative would likely tell a different story about
what was done and why.
- The SDR will create new financial complexities and
opportunities for corruption. Use of the SDR would add an
additional step to every international transaction. Buyers and
sellers would have to convert their local currency into SDRs. Some
would have to change first into a convertible currency and then
into SDRs. This would create new opportunities for arbitrage and
corruption or, at the very least, make the process more expensive
with an additional transaction fee. Fans of derivatives will love
the SDR: Like derivatives, SDRs are an additional layer away from
anything of real value. They will provide wonderful opportunities
for manipulation and skimming of value by currency traders and
financial speculators. They will also be less transparent and
harder for normal people to understand. And they will be controlled
by an international organization that has little if any democratic
legitimacy or accountability.
A Silly Idea from Serious People
Why would the Russians and Chinese propose such a thing? They
are serious people, and serious people do not usually propose silly
ideas. The easy answer would be resentment toward the U.S. for its
unique and dominant role in the system. This may be an element
especially for the Russians. Far more likely, however, is that the
Chinese and Russians are motivated instead by fear that the U.S. is
not doing a very good job of managing its economy and its
international economic role right now. Floating an unrealistic but
provocative proposal is precisely the way to diplomatically express
that concern without actually threatening the current system on
which they depend just as does the rest of the world.
One would have to guess that the U.S. response--categorical
defense of the dollar and its role as a reserve currency by both
Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Bernanke[1]--was
exactly what the Chinese and Russians were trying to inspire. It is
a diplomatic coup for them as well as a warning to the U.S. that
what this nation does right and what it does wrong has major
implications for other nations as well as itself. America should
not expect other countries to remain idle if U.S. policies begin
hurting their economic growth as well as its own.
Ambassador
Terry Miller is Director of the Center for International Trade
and Economics at The Heritage Foundation.