As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton embarks on an extensive
international tour--which will include visits to Egypt, the
Palestinian territories, Israel, Brussels, Geneva, and Ankara--she
will be confronted with fierce competition for her time and
attention. However, her agenda in Europe will likely be dominated
by three interwoven issues: Afghanistan, Russia, and NATO's
upcoming Strasbourg-Kehl summit.
Clinton must set the stage for what the Administration wants to
achieve at NATO's next summit, including greater European military
commitments to the alliance's International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. She must also be careful not
to alienate Central and Eastern European countries who have been
unsettled by Vice President Joe Biden's call to "hit the reset
button" on U.S.-Russian relations. Most of all, the secretary must
pay careful attention to the issue of France's potential
reintegration into NATO's military command structures, a change
that would reshape the alliance for years to come.
NATO First
The European leg of Secretary Clinton's trip will provide the
U.S. Administration with a significant opportunity to outline its
plans for NATO's historic 60th anniversary summit, which will take
place in Strasbourg and Kehl April 3-4. Secretary Clinton will meet
with NATO Foreign Ministers in Brussels a day before she meets with
EU leaders representing the European Council, the European
Commission, and the EU presidency.
Secretary Clinton must concentrate on top-line agenda items such
as Afghanistan and NATO reform and address the long-term
implications of French reintegration into NATO's military command
structures. President Nicolas Sarkozy has stated his intention to
fully rejoin NATO at the Strasbourg summit and, in return, has
reportedly received assurances of two senior NATO command
positions, as well as American support for an independent European
defense identity.[1]
In his speech to the Munich Security Conference on February 7,
Vice President Biden welcomed both France's potential reintegration
and a "fundamentally stronger NATO-EU partnership."[2] However, the
reshaping of NATO-EU relations will have far-reaching
ramifications, including serious consequences for the transatlantic
relationship. Hearings should be held on the issue and the full
implications considered by both the Administration and
Congress.
NATO reform and revitalization will also be high on the summit's
agenda. This summit is likely to produce a Declaration on Allied
Security outlining NATO's raison d'etre and paving the way
for a new strategic concept for the alliance. A new threat
perception that meaningfully addresses security challenges such as
cyberterrorism, ballistic missile attack, and proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction would be a very positive start in
revitalizing NATO as the alliance enters its seventh decade.
The replacement of Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
should also be on Secretary Clinton's agenda to be discussed on the
sidelines of the conference. As the political lobbying heats up to
replace the Dutch diplomat, the U.S. Administration must liaise
with its closest NATO allies, including the United Kingdom, to
discuss a preferred candidate. Significantly, Britain at present
holds neither a supreme NATO command nor a joint command position
within the military command structures.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan is the Obama Administration's top foreign policy
priority, and Secretary Clinton must call for additional European
commitments to the ISAF mission in military, civilian, and economic
terms. Although the Administration's long-term strategy for
Afghanistan is yet to be finalized, President Obama's 60-day review
will be completed before the April summit. Regardless of the
long-term political strategies currently being calculated in
Washington, security and stability will surely be the main focus in
the short term. That will mean more combat troops, with fewer
national caveats and more effective deployment of current
resources. A short-term strategy focused on stability is also
likely to involve a request for more police trainers, especially
specialist law enforcement trainers such as gendarmerie who can
fill in where German efforts have failed.
Washington has already announced the deployment of an additional
17,000 troops.[3] It is important that NATO's Continental
European members take steps to show a similar level of
commitment.
Russia
Standing alongside her Czech counterpart, Karel Schwarzenberg,
in Washington last month, Secretary Clinton stated that the U.S.
could delay its plans for a U.S. missile defense shield in Poland
and the Czech Republic in exchange for Iranian disarmament.[4] In a
letter to Russian President Dmitri Medvedev last month, President
Obama secretly offered such a deal to Moscow.[5] Although the Obama
Administration has still not formally withdrawn plans for the
U.S.'s "third site" deployment, all indications point to
Washington's intention to enter into a grand bargain with Moscow to
secure Russia's cooperation in dealing with Tehran.[6]
Secretary Clinton must not trade away U.S. missile defenses for
vague promises from Moscow of future cooperation on Iran,
especially following Admiral Mike Mullen's recent comments that
Iran already has enough nuclear material to build a bomb.[7] Moscow
would rightly interpret any such deal as weakness on Washington's
part and continue to pursue its "zone of privileged interests"
policy.[8]
NATO enlargement provides Secretary Clinton with a key test case
for Russian-American relations. Unable to overcome German and
French hostility, President Bush failed to garner the alliance's
support for granting NATO Membership Action Plans (MAP) to Georgia
and Ukraine at the Bucharest summit last year. The Obama
Administration should restate the case for NATO's open-door policy
and specifically find a way forward for Georgian and Ukrainian
accession to MAP without fear of Russian retribution. NATO
enlargement will stand as a major test of whether Moscow is
genuinely interested in resetting U.S.-Russian relations on a
positive footing, or if it is merely interested in pocketing policy
gains from Washington.
Defending American Interests
Secretary Clinton must be proactive on this European trip,
requesting European military support in Afghanistan as well as
confronting Russian opposition to key U.S. policies such as NATO
enlargement and missile defense. She must take the lead on issues
of NATO reform and approach the French reintegration issue with
much more caution. Secretary Clinton must realize that the creation
of a separate EU defense identity will cause lasting damage to the
transatlantic security alliance and will give France an
unprecedented opportunity to pursue an agenda that will be inimical
to American interests.
Sally
McNamara is Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the
Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, a division of the Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The
Heritage Foundation. The author is grateful to Morgan L. Roach for
her assistance in preparing this paper.