The April jobs report shows a labor market that continues to
weaken. Employers shed another 611,000 private sector jobs, and the
unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent. These numbers indicate that
the job market has not yet stabilized and that both job losses and
rising unemployment will probably continue over the next six
months.
These employment figures also demonstrate that this is the wrong
time for the Administration's Detroit bailout strategy. The Obama
Administration has used its clout to pressure many of Chrysler's
creditors to take large losses on their holdings while protecting
the United Auto Workers (UAW). This will make lenders reluctant to
extend secured loans to other heavily unionized companies, further
aggravating the problem of unionized companies losing more jobs
than non-union companies because they invest less. The weak job
market shows that this is no time to manipulate the financial
system to reward politically favored interest groups.
April Jobs Numbers Grim
The April jobs numbers show the recession continues apace.
Employers shed a net 539,000 jobs and the February, and March
reports were revised to show the loss of another 66,000 jobs. The
unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent, and the median and average
duration of unemployment both rose by over a week.
These are smaller job losses than occurred in recent months.
However, private sector employers shed a net of 611,000 jobs--only
slightly down from losses in February and March. Job losses
appeared lighter because the government added 72,000 jobs, almost
all of them in the federal government and most of those in
preparation for the census of 2010. Spending by Congress and the
Administration is creating more make-work government positions, but
the productive private sector continues to contract.
Job losses were widespread throughout the private sector. The
manufacturing (-149,000) and professional and business service
(-122,000) sectors experienced the heaviest job losses. Those
losses were heaviest in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing and
temporary help services. The one almost bright spot was the health
care sector, which experienced modest (17,000) job gains.
Creditors and Bankruptcy Law
As private sector job creation continues to weaken, the Obama
Administration has controversially bailed out the Detroit
automakers. Under federal law, creditors lend money on the
condition that they can either sell assets belonging to the
borrower or be first in line for repayment if the borrower
defaults. In many cases, lenders would not loan money without these
conditions. Mortgages work in a similar way: Banks would not lend
hundreds of thousands of dollars to families to buy a house without
the guarantee that, if they default, the bank can sell the house.
Foreclosures are unpopular, but the fact that banks can foreclose
enables families to take out a mortgage in the first place.
Similarly, creditors loaned money with the guarantee that if the
business went under, they could be repaid ahead of other lenders or
sell the remaining assets to recover their losses. The fact that
General Motors and Chrysler could offer lenders this kind of
assurance made it possible for them to borrow the money they needed
to keep operating. Without collateral and priority status, the
automakers would have gone out of business years ago.
White House Cramdown
In the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies, however, the Obama
Administration is using its influence to reward political interest
groups at the expense of secured creditors and the rule of law. The
UAW is not a senior lender and does not have senior priority. Under
bankruptcy law, they would stand in line behind more senior
creditors, and the courts would probably eliminate most union work
rules, above-market earnings, and retiree health benefits.
While the UAW does not have priority in repayment under
bankruptcy law, it does wield considerable political influence. The
Obama Administration's plan vaults the UAW to the front of the line
while forcing lenders to take large losses in order to preserve a
measure of the UAW's above-market earnings.
Under the Obama plan, the UAW agreed to some concessions at
Chrysler--such as no overtime until employees put in 40 hours a
week and consolidating some job classifications--as well as taking
majority ownership of Chrysler in lieu of some contributions to the
retiree health care fund. This plan was far more generous to the
union than what a bankruptcy court would usually impose or allow.
Under the Obama plan, lenders would get only 33 cents on the dollar
for their debt--far less than they could expect in a normal
bankruptcy.
The Obama Administration used its leverage with banks that
loaned Chrysler money and also accepted TARP funding to persuade
them to accept this unfavorable offer. A minority of
creditors--primarily hedge funds that did not receive TARP
funds--have insisted on their legal rights, and Chrysler has now
filed for bankruptcy. The Obama Administration and Chrysler's
management have used their leverage in the bankruptcy proceedings
to largely proceed with the original plan.
Initial court rulings have gone against the creditors. While the
bankruptcy proceedings are not complete, it appears likely that the
final package will preserves a portion of the UAW's lucrative
contracts while forcing creditors to take large losses. Bankruptcy
at GM, if it occurs, is likely to proceed in a similar fashion.
Reduced Investment and Jobs in
Unionized Companies
In the short term this clearly benefits the Detroit autoworkers:
Many of them get to keep their jobs and their above-market wages.
In the long term, however, this approach will cost jobs. It sets
the dangerous precedent that the rule of law will be set aside when
doing so benefits unions. Lenders will take this into account when
extending loans to unionized companies, particularly companies with
politically influential unions. Workers will always be more
sympathetic than bankers. Forcing banks to the back of the line to
help workers will usually make for good politics. Consequently,
banks and other lenders will either charge higher interest rates to
compensate for the risk of their legal rights being ignored or they
will not make those loans at all. Because of this cramdown,
unionized firms will have significantly more difficulty borrowing
money--which, in turn, will cost jobs.
Unionized firms already invest significantly less than
comparable non-union firms, and unionized firms tend to lose more
jobs than non-union firms.[1] With less investment they have less of a
competitive advantage. Being charged higher interest rates for
having a union will exacerbate this problem. Unionized firms will
invest even less, become less competitive, and lose more jobs
because they will be able to borrow less money.
Recommendations to Congress
Private-sector job losses continued to mount in April, with
employers shedding another 611,000 jobs and the unemployment rate
rising to 8.9 percent. The economy cannot afford the Administration
subverting the rule of law and the financial markets to benefit
politically favored interest groups. In the short term, this
approach will preserve some union jobs with above-market wages. In
the long term, however, creditors will not loan their money to
companies if they do not expect to be repaid. This development will
place unionized companies at a competitive disadvantage.
Consequently, unionized firms will go out of business more
frequently, and far more jobs will be lost.
Congress should intervene to stop this destructive policy by
passing legislation that:
- Prevents the Administration from using TARP funds to pressure
banks to extend loans to particular groups or to forgive certain
debts; and
- Provides greater protections for creditors in bankruptcy
proceedings to prevent such political abuses.
Such measures are essential to preventing an already weak job
market from deteriorating further.
James Sherk is Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy
in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
[1]Barry T. Hirsch, "What Do Unions Do for
Economic Performance?" Journal of Labor Research, Vol. 25,
No. 3, (July 2004) pp. 415-456.