The May employment report released by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics revealed a glimmer of sunlight in the recession's stormy
clouds.
The establishment survey reported job losses of only 345,000 in
May, which is the lowest level of job reductions since October
2008. The lower job loss estimate confirmed the lower-than-expected
unemployment claims data reported earlier this week. The household
survey increased the unemployment rate to 9.4 percent, the highest
since the peak of the 1981-82 recession.
The May jobs report offers some hope that while the downturn in
the labor market is continuing, it is doing so at a slower rate.
Given the increasing likelihood that the economy is recovering now,
Congress should do nothing to make labor markets less flexible. In
fact, Congress should free up business to create more incentives
for increased worker productivity. Passing the RAISE Act would be a
step in the right direction.
The May Report
The May jobs report was the fourth straight month of declining
job losses. Job losses peaked in January at 741,000 but have fallen
by over half to 345,000 job losses in May. The April and May
employment reports show 150,000 fewer job losses than the preceding
month. This indicates that the rate of job losses has slowed and
that the labor market is nearing a bottom. Another positive sign is
that job losses for the previous two months were revised
upwards.
The unemployment rate increased from 8.9 percent to 9.4 percent
in May. The unemployment rate increased not only due to job losses
but also because a large number of workers entered the labor force.
The labor force participation rate increased to 65.9 percent, the
largest number since October 2008.
This recession has hit working men especially hard. The
unemployment rate for men over 16 is now 10.5 percent and 9.8
percent for men over 20. This is significantly higher than the
unemployment rate for women of 8.0 and 7.5 percent, respectively.
This is due in part to the fact that industries such as
construction and manufacturing--which have a higher percentage of
male workers--have been hard hit in the recession.
The construction industry shed another 59,000 jobs and has lost
almost a fifth of the total workers since the peak of the
construction market in 2007. Manufacturing (-156,000) has lost 15
percent of total jobs since January 2007. While the service sector
shed jobs overall (-120,000), it had some sectors that showed job
growth over the last month. The leisure and hospitality (+3,000)
showed small growth, but education and health services had a solid
month of employment increases (+44,000).
With the downturn of the labor market now in its second year,
the duration of unemployment has increased. The median duration of
unemployment is now 14.9 weeks, the highest level ever recorded.
The percent of workers unemployed for over 15 weeks is 48 percent,
also a new high. A quarter of all unemployed have been out of work
for over 27 weeks.
Wages Holding Up
The job market and the rising unemployment rate have attracted
the most media attention. Commentators have paid relatively little
attention to how wages have held up during the recession. Perhaps
surprisingly, wages have continued to rise modestly. Chart 1 shows
the annual change in inflation adjusted earnings reported by three
different surveys conducted by the Department of Labor.
All three surveys show that workers' earnings have grown at a
roughly 2 percent annual rate, after inflation, during the
recession. This is roughly the same rate as during normal economic
circumstances. Wages have held up throughout the downturn.
RAISE Act Boosts Productivity and
Wages
These encouraging signs should spur Congress to remove barriers
to upward mobility. Wages can rise in the long-term only when
workers productivity does. Boosting both productivity and wages
will spur economic growth--the only way to turn the economy around
permanently and end the recession.
The Rewarding Achievement and Incentivizing Successful Employees
(RAISE) Act, recently introduced by Senator David Vitter (R-LA) and
Representative Tom McClintock (R-CA) would provide exactly this
economic boost.
Under current law, union contracts set not just a wage floor but
a wage ceiling: Employers may not pay individual union members more
than the contract calls for without negotiating with the union.
However, unions usually reject individual pay increases--they want
workers to view the union, not their own efforts, as the reason
they get ahead. Most unions insist on seniority-based pay
systems.
This destroys the incentive to work harder and become more
productive to earn higher wages--the heart of the American dream.
The RAISE Act changes this by allowing the 8.6 million union
members covered by the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) to earn
more than their union contract calls for.[1] The RAISE Act maintains the
NLRA ban on giving discriminatory raises to anti-union workers to
undercut union support, but it allows employers to give performance
pay and merit bonuses to deserving employees.
Real Economic Stimulus
Lifting the union "seniority ceiling" will help both workers and
the economy. Economic research shows that the average worker's
earnings rise by 6-10 percent when the pay is performance-based.[2] Most
workers take advantage of the opportunities presented by
performance pay and work harder to prosper. If Congress passes the
RAISE Act, the typical union member would earn between $2,600 and
$4,300 per year more than if Congress left the union wage ceiling
in place.[3]
These higher earnings would provide the right type of stimulus
to get the economy moving more rapidly. Workers would earn more
money by creating wealth through their own hard work, adding tens
of billions of dollars to the economy. Their greater productivity
would also improve business earnings. Instead of fighting over how
to redistribute wealth, the RAISE Act encourages employers and
employees to work together to create more wealth and spark economic
renewal.
Not All Bad News
The May jobs report paints another grim picture of the labor
market. Still, there is some good news, especially for those
currently employed. Wages continue to rise, and legislation like
the RAISE Act can offer higher wages to workers. Congress should
focus on passing pro-growth legislation, especially given how
little help the stimulus bill has been to the labor market and the
economy.
Rea S.
Hederman, Jr., is a senior policy analyst and the assistant
director at The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis. James Sherk
is the Bradley Fellow in Labor Policy at The Heritage
Foundation.
[1]Heritage Foundation calculations based on data
from Barry T. Hirsch and David A. Macpherson, "Union Membership and
Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey,"
Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 56, No. 2
(January 2003), pp. 349-54, at /static/reportimages/AFB4D5C2C66EC467F98A5B4C53ADC39F.pdf
(June 5, 2009). The NLRA covers private sector employers outside
the agricultural, railroad, and airline industries. This figure
includes both union members and non-members covered by collective
bargaining agreements.
[2]Alison L. Booth and Jeff Frank, "Earnings,
Productivity, and Performance-Related Pay," Journal of Labor
Economics, Vol. 17, No. 3 (July 1999), pp. 447-63; Edward
Lazear, "Performance Pay and Productivity," American Economic
Review, Vol. 90, No. 5 (December 2000), pp. 1346-1361; Tuomas
Pekkarinen and Chris Riddell, "Performance Pay and Earnings:
Evidence from Personnel Records," Industrial and Labor Relations
Review, Vol. 61, No. 3 (April 2008), pp. 297-319; Adam Copeland
and Cyril Monnet, "The Welfare Effects of Incentive Schemes,"
Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 76, No. 1 (2009), pp.
93-113; Daniel Parent, "Methods of Pay and Earnings: A Longitudinal
Analysis," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 53,
No. 1 (October 1999), pp. 71-86.
[3]Heritage Foundation calculations based on data
from the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics on the
median earnings of private-sector workers covered by collective
bargaining agreements in 2008 and assuming a 6-10 percent rise in
median annual earnings due to merit raises.