The Islamic Republic of Iran, which has pursued policies hostile
to the United States since its founding in 1979, is now on the
brink of attaining a nuclear weapons capability. U.S. Director of
National Intelligence Dennis Blair testified before Congress on
March 10 that "We assess Iran has the scientific, technical, and
industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons."
Although it is not clear exactly when Iran will realize this goal,
Blair also testified that "We judge Iran probably would be
technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium
(HEU) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 timeframe." While
estimates vary, it is clear that the world's foremost sponsor of
terrorism soon will be able to build one of the world's most
terrifying weapons.
What happens next? The answer is that the U.S. should not wait
to find out. Rather, it should immediately put in place the
foundations of a strategy to dissuade Tehran from attaining a
nuclear weapon through adroit diplomacy, disarm it through military
force, or establish a robust framework of augmented deterrence to
mitigate the threat posed by a nuclear Iran. Washington must take
stronger actions now to prevent a future disaster from unfolding.
After all, the U.S. will be dealing not just with a nuclear Iran,
but with a potential cascade of nuclear powers in the Middle
East.
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