When U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in India
tomorrow, she will need to demonstrate that the Obama
Administration has a strategic vision for U.S. relations with
India. This vision must acknowledge New Delhi's growing global
economic, political, and geo-strategic clout. Clinton will likely
try to assuage concerns among some Indians that the Obama
Administration takes a narrow view of India--one that revolves
around its Afghanistan-Pakistan agenda--and that it lacks the Bush
Administration's determination to advance the relationship.
A Broad Agenda
Secretary Clinton is popular in India, having traveled there as
First Lady, co-founded and co-chaired the Senate India Caucus when
she was a U.S. Senator, and reached out to Indian-Americans during
her presidential campaign.
She will highlight a number of areas in which the U.S. and India
can enhance their partnership, including the health, agriculture,
education, and energy sectors. Clinton plans to attend a meeting on
climate change and interact with scientists working on innovative
agricultural projects. The real substance of the visit, however,
will involve discussions on the civil nuclear agreement and defense
cooperation. Although the heavy-lifting on the civil nuclear
agreement has already been done by the Bush Administration, some
finishing touches are still needed from the Obama
Administration.
The U.S. is still looking for an official announcement from
India designating sites for U.S. nuclear power plants. India has
already designated sites for French and Russian firms, which has
irked some Members of Congress, given Washington's efforts to
convince the international community to waive restrictions on India
receiving civil nuclear fuel and technology, despite being a
non-signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Once
the sites are made official, there still remains significant
government work left to be done on both sides before American firms
can sign contracts.
India, for its part, is eager to start negotiations with the
U.S. to establish a new national reprocessing facility dedicated to
reprocessing safeguarded nuclear material. U.S. and Indian
officials have indicated that the reprocessing talks will begin
later this month, but they will likely be complicated and
drawn-out. The negotiations are not expected to involve discussions
of the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology
from the U.S. to India. Transfers of such sensitive nuclear
technology would require an amendment to the 123 Agreement signed
by the two countries in October 2008.
Even so, a recent G-8 declaration curbing the transfer of ENR
technology to non-NPT states has raised concerns in New Delhi about
general U.S. commitment to the India civil nuclear deal. Indian
officials are also concerned about the appointments of what they
consider to be "non-proliferation hawks" to key posts in the U.S.
Administration--over the last several years, one of these
appointees has frequently argued that the U.S.-India nuclear deal
poses a threat to the international nonproliferation regime.
Secretary Clinton will need to reassure the Indians that the Obama
Administration is committed to negotiating the final portions of
the civil nuclear deal in good faith.
Another important agreement likely to be inked during Clinton's
visit is an end-use monitoring agreement to ensure U.S. arms
technology sold to India does not leak to third-party countries.
The agreement would pave the way for future U.S. arms sales to
India and help strengthen the nascent U.S.-India defense
relationship. India still buys the majority of its military
hardware from Russia but is beginning to look to other countries
like the U.S. to purchase advanced weapons systems that would
modernize its fast-growing military. The U.S. and India have
conducted dozens of joint military exercises since 2002, including
one off the Indian coast involving three other countries.
Tread Carefully on India-Pakistan
Secretary Clinton's first stop in Mumbai, India--where she will
pay respects to the victims of the November 2008 terrorist
attacks--demonstrates her sensitivity to the event's impact on the
Indian psyche and will be received with great appreciation by the
Indian public. In the past, Indian officials have complained that
Washington is insensitive to terrorism directed at India from
groups located across the border in Pakistan. Clinton, however,
should be careful not to link terrorism in India to the political
situation in Jammu and Kashmir. While she will almost certainly
stress the U.S.'s interest in the resumption of Indo-Pakistani
dialogue, she should also make it clear that Pakistan must crack
down on terrorist groups within its borders, like the
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), the group responsible for the Mumbai
carnage. LeT leader Hafiz Muhammed Sayeed's early release from a
Pakistani jail has shed fresh doubt on the Pakistani commitment to
act against the terrorist group.
The U.S. gains little by continuing to publicly press for a
resumption of Indo-Pakistani talks as an end in itself. It should
instead quietly encourage changes in the dynamics of the
Indo-Pakistani relationship that will reduce tensions and uproot
terrorism from the region. Indian insistence that Pakistan shut
down the LeT was a reasonable demand even before the Mumbai attacks
and has now become essential to reducing the chances of additional
acts of terrorism, which could lead to conflict between the two
nuclear-armed nations. Pushing for a resumption of Indo-Pakistani
peace talks without concerted action against the perpetrators of
the Mumbai attacks could well embolden groups like LeT to up the
ante.
Highlight India's Global Role
Secretary Clinton should spend some time explaining India's
position in the Obama Administration's broader foreign policy
agenda. During a June 17 address at an annual U.S.-India Business
Council event in Washington, Clinton said that "we see India as one
of a few key partners worldwide who will help us shape the 21st
century." This is encouraging, but she will need to flesh out the
Administration's goals concerning India more clearly.
Indian strategic thinkers have expressed concern that Obama
advisors appear less skeptical of China and its role in the region
than the Bush team and are more interested in placating the Chinese
than in strengthening India. These misgivings have developed at the
same time that Indian concerns regarding China and its regional
intentions are increasing. The Bush Administration did not shy away
from stating its goal of building up India so that nation could
play a stabilizing role in the broader Asia region, even as it
built a strong relationship with China. Clinton will have to reach
beyond strictly issues-based diplomacy and lay out a deeper,
strategic agenda for the U.S.-India relationship. Only then will
her trip be deemed a genuine success.
Lisa Curtis is Senior Research Fellow on South
Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.