On July 4 Pyongyang launched seven Scud missiles in a rebuff to
international diplomatic efforts to deter North Korea from
developing a missile delivery capability for nuclear weapons. North
Korea's blatant defiance of yet another U.N. resolution
demonstrates the critical necessity for the U.S. and its allies to
have robust missile defense systems--even as America does all it
can both multilaterally and unilaterally to squeeze Pyongyang into
abandoning its programs. Washington and Tokyo have deployed an
effective, though still limited missile defense system, while Seoul
has yet to upgrade its rudimentary defenses.
Fireworks on the Fourth
The barrage of Scud short-range ballistic missiles were an
unambiguous violation of U.N. Resolution 1874, passed in response
to North Korea's May 25 nuclear test. The resolution "demands that
[North Korea] not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch
using ballistic missile technology [and] decides that the DPRK
shall suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile
program."
The Scud missiles, which flew 300 miles prior to landing in the
East Sea (Sea of Japan), come in addition to the July 2 launches of
four anti-ship missiles with a 60-mile range. The latter missile
launches were not technically a violation of the U.N. resolution
since they were not ballistic missiles. Instead, they were
likely a show of North Korean tactical military prowess in support
of its escalating threats of renewed naval confrontation with South
Korea over a disputed maritime border on the west coast.
Pyongyang's refusal to abandon its provocative behavior is a
stark demonstration of the looming North Korean long-range
ballistic missile threat. As far back as 2001, a National
Intelligence Estimate by the U.S. intelligence community assessed a
two-stage Taepo Dong 2 "could deliver a several-hundred-kilogram
payload up to 10,000 km--sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii, and
parts of the continental United States." The report projected that
including a third stage could increase the range to 15,000 km,
which would allow the missile to reach all of North America with a
payload sufficiently large to accommodate a nuclear warhead.[1] North
Korean capabilities have only improved in the interim.
An Insufficient Response
Despite North Korea's continuing development of its missile
prowess, the Obama Administration recently proposed cutting $1.4
billion from U.S. missile defense systems. These cuts include:
- Capping the number of fielded ground-based interceptors for
countering long-range missiles at 30 rather than 44;
- Terminating a multi-kill vehicle program for defeating
countermeasures in the midcourse stage of flight;
- Eliminating a kinetic energy interceptor program for
intercepting ballistic missiles in the boost-phase stage of
flight;
- Curtailing the airborne laser aircraft program; and
- Eliminating funding for the space test bed for missile
defense.[2]
In coming days Pyongyang may conduct additional test launches of
No Dong medium-range ballistic missiles, which can target all of
Japan, or the Taepo Dong 2. On July 4, 2006, North Korea launched
six Scud and No Dong missiles as well as a Taepo Dong 2 missile.
Current expectations for longer-range missile activity were
heightened by reports in May that a long-range missile transporter
was observed at two North Korean launch facilities, similar to
preparations prior to Pyongyang's April 5, 2009, launch of a Taepo
Dong 2 missile which flew 2,500 miles.
However, on July 1, 2009, U.S. intelligence sources were quoted
as stating that there were no indications of an impending
long-range missile launch. Even after a Taepo Dong missile is
placed on the launch stand, it usually takes several days to fuel
and prepare it. Such a launch may take place later in July--rather
than on the July 4 anniversary of the 2006 launches or the July 8
anniversary of the 2004 death of North Korean leader Kim
Il-sung.
Eliminate U.N. Loopholes
The Obama Administration should recognize North Korea's
continued missile development and refusal to abide by international
agreements as a clear signal for the need to reverse its proposed
cuts to missile defense programs. In addition, the Obama
Administration should use North Korea's latest provocation to press
China and Russia for agreement to a follow-on U.N. accord that
eliminates the loopholes of U.N. Resolution 1874. That resolution
included stronger language than its predecessors, but Beijing and
Moscow gutted proposed provisions that would have enabled nations
to actually implement it.
The feckless pursuit of the North Korean trawler Kang
Nam, suspected of transporting military contraband, shows the
wisdom of including in the resolution reference to Chapter 7,
Article 42 of the U.N. Charter regarding the use of military means
to enforce the will of the Security Council. The inability of the
heavily armed guided missile destroyer USS John McCain to
deter the tubby, unarmed North Korean freighter was a modern day
manifestation of Jonathan Swift's Gulliver subdued by the
Lilliputians.
Additional Measures
Because China and Russia will remain resistant to effective U.N.
resolutions, Washington should implement a comprehensive program to
independently impose U.S. sanctions on any company, bank, or
government agency complicit in North Korean proliferation,
particularly those in Iran, Syria, Burma, and China. Washington
should also lead a multilateral initiative calling upon other
nations to similarly target North Korean and foreign proliferators,
as well as those engaged in North Korean illegal activities, such
as currency counterfeiting and drug smuggling.
Bruce
Klingner is Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the
Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.