On September 21, former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya slipped
back into Tegucigalpa. Backed by anti-democrats like Hugo
Chávez, Raul Castro, and Daniel Ortega, Zelaya claims only
to desire dialogue and a peaceful accord with the interim
government of Roberto Micheletti. Yet in reality, an unrepentant
Zelaya seeks to overturn the constitutional order by convening a
"constituent assembly" to alter presidential term limits--an
illegal action that he tried earlier this year, resulting in his
removal from office on June 28.
It is time for the U.S. to cease its policy of backing Zelaya
and support elections that can truly end the Honduran crisis.
Zelaya's Brazilian Gambit
After arriving in Tegucigalpa, Zelaya proceeded straight to the
Brazilian embassy. Because diplomatic conventions and international
law protect embassies, Zelaya is free to use the diplomatic space
that is supposed to be outside of domestic politics as a safe haven
and base of operations in his effort to regain office.
Allowing use of Brazil's embassy for acts of subterfuge and
political intervention runs contrary to diplomatic custom and
practice. Nonetheless, Honduras wants to avoid a diplomatic
confrontation with the South American giant. Zelaya's sojourn in
the Brazilian embassy is carefully calculated to advance his
interests and generate polarizing conflict while protecting him
from the exercise of national laws against a Honduran citizen on
Honduran soil.
Supporters of Zelaya have rallied to the embassy, hoping to
spark confrontation and protests that will provoke government
repression and inflame international opinion. The Micheletti
government has imposed curfews and cordoned off the embassy to
deter destabilizing acts by Zelaya's backers. Still, the situation
remains a radical hothead's dream.
Micheletti has stated that Zelaya's return does not alter the
"Honduran reality." From the perspective of the interim government,
Zelaya is first and foremost a fugitive from Honduran justice,
having been formally charged with acts of fraud, treason, and abuse
of power. The interim government continues preparing for the
November 29 elections, which it believes offer the only real chance
for ending the schism.
U.S. Policy Consistently Misreading
the Honduran Situation
U.S. policy toward Honduras has reflected a mix of inattention,
indifference, and arrogance. Before the removal of Zelaya, there is
no evidence that the U.S. attempted to head off the crisis with any
kind of sustained diplomatic engagement. Without conducting an
in-depth investigation of the circumstances and events that led to
Zelaya's removal, the U.S. joined the Latin American consensus in
the Organization of American States (OAS) to demand Zelaya's
unconditional return to office.
When the interim government of Honduras balked at a 72-hour OAS
diktat, the U.S. invited Costa Rican president and Nobel
Peace prize winner Oscar Arias to act as a mediator. Once more the
interim government answered that Zelaya could not be trusted to
abide by the Honduran constitution.
When Secretary Clinton met with Zelaya in early September, she
turned up the heat on the interim government. The U.S. State
Department pronounced the events of June 28 a coup, cut off further
economic assistance, and revoked the visas of those believed to be
involved in Zelaya's removal, including all the justices of the
Honduran Supreme Court. Concurring with Zelaya's demands, the State
Department also announced it would not recognize the winner of the
November 29 elections as legitimate without Zelaya's restoration to
office.
Despite these exceptional efforts on behalf of the deposed
president, an impatient and increasingly egotistical Zelaya staged
his dramatic and secretive return to Honduras on September 21. Once
again the Obama Administration appears to have been caught off
guard by events in Honduras and, consequently, forced to react
rather than lead.
Ending Foreign Intervention in
Honduras
International intervention in a poor, divided, often corrupt
democracy is unlikely to resolve what is essentially a domestic
power dispute. Zelaya says he is still the president and will be
until January. The interim government believes the events of June
28 were constitutional and therefore a legitimate defense of
Honduran democracy. While Zelaya commands active and vocal support
from a significant minority of Hondurans, there is little doubt
that the majority of Hondurans fear his potential return to power:
They do not wish to see their nation marching in lockstep with Hugo
Chávez and his ilk. Honduras's differences must be overcome
by its citizenry and its citizenry alone--with wise counsel and
measured advice but without violence, outside intervention,
sanctions, or threats.
It is time for the U.S. and others to stop meddling in Honduras.
Safe for the time being within the Brazilian embassy, Zelaya is
counting on a combination of internal mass pressure, external
sanctions, and punitive diplomacy to break the will of those
who--justifiably--removed him from office.
Recommendations for Resolving the
Honduran Crisis
Let Honduras End Its Crisis. Since June 28, the U.S.
appears to have consistently sided with Zelaya. Yet, Zelaya's
persistent and often quixotic effort to return to power raises
question about America's ability to influence--let alone
constrain--his efforts to regain the presidency and jeopardize any
potential for an orderly end to the Honduran crisis.
It is time to uncouple U.S. policy in Honduras from Zelaya and
urge him to surrender to the interim government and answer for his
provocative actions and abuse of executive power.
Support November Elections. The elections of November 29
offer the only real path to resolving the current Honduran
political crisis. They were scheduled before the events of June 28,
candidates were already selected through democratic primaries, a
full spectrum of public opinion is represented, and neither Zelaya
nor Micheletti are eligible to run.
It is critical that these elections are free, fair, transparent,
and legitimate. This means throwing America's full weight behind
the elections and flooding the country with electoral observers,
not isolating it and threatening not to recognize the outcome.
Time Is Running Out in Honduras
The Obama Administration's policy in Honduras is incoherent. It
has been unable to constrain Zelaya, whose objective is to fracture
a fragile democracy. Furthermore, the Administration continues to
alienate and punish those who oppose Zelaya's reckless populism and
support democratic freedoms and economic liberty. If the only
chance at a peaceful resolution to the current Honduran crisis--the
November 29 elections--are to be a success, this inconsistent
policy must change.
Ray Walser, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for
Latin America in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage
Foundation.
On September 21, former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya slipped
back into Tegucigalpa. Backed by anti-democrats like Hugo
Chávez, Raul Castro, and Daniel Ortega, Zelaya claims only
to desire dialogue and a peaceful accord with the interim
government of Roberto Micheletti. Yet in reality, an unrepentant
Zelaya seeks to overturn the constitutional order by convening a
"constituent assembly" to alter presidential term limits--an
illegal action that he tried earlier this year, resulting in his
removal from office on June 28.
It is time for the U.S. to cease its policy of backing Zelaya
and support elections that can truly end the Honduran crisis.
Zelaya's Brazilian Gambit
After arriving in Tegucigalpa, Zelaya proceeded straight to the
Brazilian embassy. Because diplomatic conventions and international
law protect embassies, Zelaya is free to use the diplomatic space
that is supposed to be outside of domestic politics as a safe haven
and base of operations in his effort to regain office.
Allowing use of Brazil's embassy for acts of subterfuge and
political intervention runs contrary to diplomatic custom and
practice. Nonetheless, Honduras wants to avoid a diplomatic
confrontation with the South American giant. Zelaya's sojourn in
the Brazilian embassy is carefully calculated to advance his
interests and generate polarizing conflict while protecting him
from the exercise of national laws against a Honduran citizen on
Honduran soil.
Supporters of Zelaya have rallied to the embassy, hoping to
spark confrontation and protests that will provoke government
repression and inflame international opinion. The Micheletti
government has imposed curfews and cordoned off the embassy to
deter destabilizing acts by Zelaya's backers. Still, the situation
remains a radical hothead's dream.
Micheletti has stated that Zelaya's return does not alter the
"Honduran reality." From the perspective of the interim government,
Zelaya is first and foremost a fugitive from Honduran justice,
having been formally charged with acts of fraud, treason, and abuse
of power. The interim government continues preparing for the
November 29 elections, which it believes offer the only real chance
for ending the schism.
U.S. Policy Consistently Misreading
the Honduran Situation
U.S. policy toward Honduras has reflected a mix of inattention,
indifference, and arrogance. Before the removal of Zelaya, there is
no evidence that the U.S. attempted to head off the crisis with any
kind of sustained diplomatic engagement. Without conducting an
in-depth investigation of the circumstances and events that led to
Zelaya's removal, the U.S. joined the Latin American consensus in
the Organization of American States (OAS) to demand Zelaya's
unconditional return to office.
When the interim government of Honduras balked at a 72-hour OAS
diktat, the U.S. invited Costa Rican president and Nobel
Peace prize winner Oscar Arias to act as a mediator. Once more the
interim government answered that Zelaya could not be trusted to
abide by the Honduran constitution.
When Secretary Clinton met with Zelaya in early September, she
turned up the heat on the interim government. The U.S. State
Department pronounced the events of June 28 a coup, cut off further
economic assistance, and revoked the visas of those believed to be
involved in Zelaya's removal, including all the justices of the
Honduran Supreme Court. Concurring with Zelaya's demands, the State
Department also announced it would not recognize the winner of the
November 29 elections as legitimate without Zelaya's restoration to
office.
Despite these exceptional efforts on behalf of the deposed
president, an impatient and increasingly egotistical Zelaya staged
his dramatic and secretive return to Honduras on September 21. Once
again the Obama Administration appears to have been caught off
guard by events in Honduras and, consequently, forced to react
rather than lead.
Ending Foreign Intervention in
Honduras
International intervention in a poor, divided, often corrupt
democracy is unlikely to resolve what is essentially a domestic
power dispute. Zelaya says he is still the president and will be
until January. The interim government believes the events of June
28 were constitutional and therefore a legitimate defense of
Honduran democracy. While Zelaya commands active and vocal support
from a significant minority of Hondurans, there is little doubt
that the majority of Hondurans fear his potential return to power:
They do not wish to see their nation marching in lockstep with Hugo
Chávez and his ilk. Honduras's differences must be overcome
by its citizenry and its citizenry alone--with wise counsel and
measured advice but without violence, outside intervention,
sanctions, or threats.
It is time for the U.S. and others to stop meddling in Honduras.
Safe for the time being within the Brazilian embassy, Zelaya is
counting on a combination of internal mass pressure, external
sanctions, and punitive diplomacy to break the will of those
who--justifiably--removed him from office.
Recommendations for Resolving the
Honduran Crisis
Let Honduras End Its Crisis. Since June 28, the U.S.
appears to have consistently sided with Zelaya. Yet, Zelaya's
persistent and often quixotic effort to return to power raises
question about America's ability to influence--let alone
constrain--his efforts to regain the presidency and jeopardize the
any potential for an orderly end to the Honduran crisis.
It is time to uncouple U.S. policy in Honduras from Zelaya and
urge him to surrender to the interim government and answer for his
provocative actions and abuse of executive power.
Support November Elections. The elections of November 29
offer the only real path to resolving the current Honduran
political crisis. They were scheduled before the events of June 28,
candidates were already selected through democratic primaries, a
full spectrum of public opinion is represented, and neither Zelaya
nor Micheletti are eligible to run.
It is critical that these elections are free, fair, transparent,
and legitimate. This means throwing America's full weight behind
the elections and flooding the country with electoral observers,
not isolating it and threatening not to recognize the outcome.
Time Is Running Out in Honduras
The Obama Administration's policy in Honduras is incoherent. It
has been unable to constrain Zelaya, whose objective is to fracture
a fragile democracy. Furthermore, the Administration continues to
alienate and punish those who oppose Zelaya's reckless populism and
support democratic freedoms and economic liberty. If the only
chance at a peaceful resolution to the current Honduran crisis--the
November 29 elections--are to be a success, this inconsistent
policy must change.
Ray Walser, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for
Latin America in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis
Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage
Foundation.