Perhaps one of the most challenging and controversial features of the COVID-19 pandemic has been understanding, forecasting, and communicating the nature and scope of the virus with data and statistical models. Such information can be very useful for informing individual and policy decisions about economic and social activities, but an overreliance on these tools—especially on inaccurate models—spurred many officials to take overly restrictive and harmful actions. The pandemic has also revealed the disastrous public health consequences of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) failure to follow multiple congressional mandates to modernize its data infrastructure.
Though data collection improved as we learned more about the virus, reliable data have been difficult to accumulate to better understand the transmission and mortality rates of COVID-19. For example, county-level testing data are still incomplete, inconsistent, or non-existent, while other data are not presented with useful context, such as concentrations of cases and deaths amongst certain populations like the elderly and nursing home residents. Nevertheless, some things have become clearer over time. Throughout the pandemic, cases and deaths have remained highly concentrated in a handful of counties in the northeast corridor between Philadelphia and Boston.14 Nearly two-thirds of all counties have experienced 10 or fewer deaths related to COVID-19. Population-adjusted death rates in the New York City metro area (2,196 per million) were almost twice that of the next nearest (Detroit, 1,177).15
However, the challenges with data are only one aspect of the failure of statistical models to inform personal and policy decisions during the pandemic. Statistical models initially estimated millions of American deaths due to COVID-19. While there was still much to be learned about the virus’s transmission and mortality rates, experts inexcusably failed to clearly communicate the assumptions they made in their models, or to release their codes to the public for further scrutiny. These models later proved to be so problematic as to disqualify them from being useful tools: Given a variety of reasonable assumptions, especially regarding case fatality rates, COVID-19 models actually yielded a very wide range of results.
Sound knowledge of the virus is critical for supporting decision-makers, the private sector, and individual Americans in responding appropriately and effectively to the virus. Models are only as good as the information and assumptions that are incorporated, and thus are fallible and limited.
Consequently, it is essential that experts, policymakers, and the media learn now how to communicate the role of models in decision-making, including clear discussion of what is, and is not yet, known about who is most at risk of serious illness (and death) from COVID-19. Such careful communication has often been severely lacking. Indeed, far too often politicians and public voices have hidden behind “the science” to circumvent debate over what are actually political choices. While we continue to progress in our scientific understanding of the virus, we have much to learn in how to communicate that knowledge effectively and accurately.
Key Heritage Research:
- Kevin D. Dayaratna and Norbert J. Michel, “The Challenges of Forecasting the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3486, April 15, 2020.
- Kevin D. Dayaratna, “What’s in a COVID-19 Model?” Heritage Foundation Commentary, June 5, 2020.
- Norbert J. Michel and Doug Badger, “Policymakers Should Adapt COVID-19 Responses to the Evidence,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3496, May 23, 2020.
- Norbert J. Michel et al., “County-Level COVID-19 Tracker,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 29, 2020.
- Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “Two-Thirds of COVID-19 Deaths in U.S. Occurred in 10 States,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 20, 2020.
- Doug Badger and Norbert J. Michel, “COVID-19: Still a New York Story,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3532, September 17, 2020.
- Joel White and Doug Badger, “In Order to Defeat COVID-19, the Federal Government Must Modernize Its Public Health Data,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3527, September 3, 2020.
- Kevin Dayaratna and Andrew Vanderplas, “A Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 and Government Protection Measures in the U.S.” Heritage Foundation Special Report No. 243, March 19, 2021.
Appendix of Heritage Research
Kevin Dayaratna and Andrew Vanderplas, “A Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 and Government Protection Measures in the U.S.” Heritage Foundation Special Report No. 243, March 19, 2021, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/statistical-analysis-covid-19-and-government-protection-measures-the-us.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Edmund F. Haislmaier, “COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker: What's Going on in the States?” Data Visualization, March 17, 2021, https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-vaccine-tracker-whats-going-on-in-the-states/.
John W. Fleming and Jay Simon, “COVID Hypocrisy: Policymakers Breaking Their Own Rules,” Data Visualization, February 25, 2021, https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-hypocrisy-policymakers-breaking-their-own-rules/.
John W. Fleming and Jay Simon, “COVID-19 Deaths by Age,” Data Visualization, February 17, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “Tracking the Trends in the COVID-19 Cases,” Data Visualization, February 2, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/tracking-the-trends-in-the-covid-19-cases/.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “COVID-19 Death Rates by State,” Data Visualization, February 2, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-death-rates-by-state/.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “One Percent of U.S. Counties Account for Bulk of COVID-19 Deaths,” Data Visualization, February 2, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/one-percent-of-us-counties-account-for-bulk-of-covid-19-deaths/.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “Counties with the Highest Levels of COVID-19 Deaths, Data Visualization, February 2, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/counties-with-the-highest-levels-of-covid-19-deaths/.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “Tracking the Trends in the COVID-19 Deaths,” Data Visualization, February 2, 2021 (updated), https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/tracking-the-trends-in-the-covid-19-deaths/.
Doug Badger and Norbert Michel, “Mask Mandates: Do They Work? Are There Better Ways to Control COVID-19 Outbreaks?” Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder No. 3578, December 27, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/mask-mandates-do-they-work-are-there-better-ways-control-covid-19-outbreaks.
Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “10 Counties with 21% of COVID-19 Deaths Have Just 11% of the Population,” Daily Signal, November 13, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/10-counties-21-covid-19-deaths-have-just-11-the-population.
Drew Gonshorowski and Norbert J. Michel, “10 Counties With Most COVID-19 Deaths Account for 22% of Fatalities but 11% of Population,” The Daily Signal, October 18, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/10-counties-most-covid-19-deaths-account-22-fatalities-11-population.
Norbert J. Michel and Doug Badger, “COVID-19: Still a New York Story,” The Washington Times, October 2, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/covid-19-still-new-york-story.
Drew Gonshorowski and Norbert J. Michel, “Just 1% of U.S. Counties Have Had Nearly Half of All COVID-19 Deaths,” The Daily Signal, September 22, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/just-1-us-counties-have-had-nearly-half-all-covid-19-deaths.
Doug Badger and Norbert J. Michel, “COVID-19: Still a New York Story,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3532, September 17, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/covid-19-still-new-york-story.
Joel White and Doug Badger, “In Order to Defeat COVID-19, the Federal Government Must Modernize Its Public Health Data,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3527, September 3, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/order-defeat-covid-19-the-federal-government-must-modernize-its-public.
Drew Gonshorowski and Norbert J. Michel, “COVID-19 Cases, Deaths Remain Concentrated: Heritage’s Tracker – and New Graphic Tool – Provide Context,” The Daily Signal, August 17, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/covid-19-cases-deaths-remain-concentrated-heritages-tracker-and-new.
Doug Badger and Norbert J. Michel, “Baseball Season, Our Distorted View of COVID-19, and What the Facts Tell Us,” The Daily Signal, August 6, 2020, https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/08/06/baseball-season-our-distorted-view-of-covid-19-and-what-the-facts-tell-us/.
Doug Badger and Amy Anderson, DNP, RN, “Without Proper Context, Leaked COVID-19 Data Is Worse Than Misleading,” The Daily Signal, August 5, 2020, https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/08/05/without-proper-context-leaked-covid-19-data-is-worse-than-misleading/.
Doug Badger, “How Much Do You Know About COVID-19? Take This Quiz,” The Daily Signal, August 4, 2020, https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/08/04/how-much-do-you-know-about-covid-19-take-this-quiz/.
Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “63% of U.S. Counties Still Have 5 or Fewer COVID-19 Deaths,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 31, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/63-us-counties-still-have-5-or-fewer-covid-19-deaths.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Jonathan Butcher, “K-12 School Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis,” Data Visualization, July 30, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/education/k-12-school-responses-to-the-covid-19-crisis/.
Kevin D. Dayaratna and Andrew Vanderplas, “Are Lockdowns Necessary? What Data from 10 Countries Show,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 29, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/are-lockdowns-necessary-what-data-10-countries-show.
Norbert J. Michel et al., “County-Level COVID-19 Tracker,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 29, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/county-level-covid-19-tracker.
Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “Two-Thirds of COVID-19 Deaths in U.S. Occurred in 10 States,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, July 20, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/two-thirds-covid-19-deaths-us-occurred-10-states.
John W. Fleming and Jay Simon, “Coronavirus Commission: 5 Key Criteria for Recovery,” Data Visualization, June 2, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/coronavirus-commission-5-key-criteria-for-recovery/.
Drew Gonshorowski, “Lessons from Tracking COVID-19 Cases,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, May 29, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/lessons-tracking-covid-19-cases.
Kevin D. Dayaratna, “Failures of an Influential COVID-19 Model Used to Justify Lockdowns,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, May 18, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/failures-influential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns.
Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “1% of Counties Home to Half of COVID-19 Cases, Over Half of Deaths,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, May 14, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/1-counties-home-half-covid-19-cases-over-half-deaths.
Norbert J. Michel, “Over Half of U.S. Counties Have Had No COVID-19 Deaths,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, May 7, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/over-half-us-counties-have-had-no-covid-19-deaths.
Doug Badger and Norbert J. Michel, “Is Sweden’s COVID-19 Approach the Right One? What 1 Expert Thinks,” The Daily Signal, May 1, 2020, https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/05/01/is-swedens-covid-19-approach-the-right-one-what-1-expert-thinks/.
Doug Badger and Norbert J. Michel, “Keeping Our Distance in the New Normal of Coronavirus,” The Daily Signal, April 23, 2020, https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/04/23/keeping-our-distance-in-the-new-normal-of-coronavirus/.
Kevin D. Dayaratna and Norbert J. Michel, “The Challenges of Forecasting the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 3486, April 15, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/the-challenges-forecasting-the-spread-and-mortality-covid-19.
John W. Fleming, Jay Simon, and Drew Gonshorowski, “Calculating the Costs of Declining Industries,” Data Visualization, April 9, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/markets-and-finance/calculating-the-costs-of-declining-industries/.
Thomas W. Spoehr, “Calculating the Coronavirus Mortality Rate? It’s Complicated,” Heritage Foundation Commentary, March 19, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/calculating-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-its-complicated.
ENDNOTES:
14. Norbert J. Michel and Drew Gonshorowski, “63% of U.S. Counties Still Have 5 or Fewer COVID-19 Deaths,” The Daily Signal, July 31, 2020.
15. As of August 22. Badger and Michel, “COVID-19: Still a New York Story.”
