During his visit to Asia this week, Colin Powell can expect
Chinese leaders to speak bluntly, and the U.S. secretary of state
will need to speak plainly in return.
What is most needed is a frank discussion about China's relations
with North Korea, Taiwan and Japan. First, Mr. Powell should warn
Beijing that its political, economic and military support for North
Korea in its quest for a nuclear weapons capability belies
Beijing's claims that China values a denuclearized Korean
peninsula. Second, Mr. Powell will need to remind Beijing's leaders
that the level of U.S. arms sales and military exchanges with
Taiwan are linked to the level of threat China poses to Taiwan. And
finally, Mr. Powell must caution China not to test America's
commitment to Tokyo with illegal incursions into Japanese
waters.
It is time Mr. Powell spoke candidly about America's disappointment
with China's stance toward North Korea. Beijing's public statements
and economic-aid policies have bolstered Pyongyang's position and
undermined Washington's. The so-called six-party-talks framework
for dealing with North Korea's nuclear-weapons ambitions has been
underway for over a year, and has yielded zero progress. Instead,
the situation has deteriorated. North Korea has claimed -- credibly
-- that it has reprocessed spent nuclear-fuel rods into
weapons-grade plutonium.
During this time, China has lavished economic aid on Pyongyang, and
continually praised North Korea's leaders for their contributions
to stability in the region and to world peace. China's continuing
and generous stream of aid relieves North Korean leaders of the
burden of choosing between saving their economy from collapse and
developing nuclear weapons.
China's unwavering political, rhetorical and economic support for
North Korea contrasts starkly with Beijing's attacks on
Washington's policies. Immediately after the first round of
six-party talks in August 2003, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang
Yi told journalists that "the American policy toward DPRK -- this
is the main problem we are facing." Chinese sniping at the U.S.
position continued unabated this year.
On June 6, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing even questioned
American assertions that North Korea has a uranium-enrichment
program. The existence of a North Korean uranium-enrichment program
is at the core of American charges that North Korea violated the
terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework, and the U.S. intelligence that
led to those charges were bolstered by interrogations of Abdul
Qader Khan, the Pakistani nuclear-weapons chief who admitted he
sold an entire fissile uranium production cycle to North Korea
after 1995. Moreover, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney briefed
Chinese leaders on the North Korean uranium program during his
visit in mid-April. China's public failure to acknowledge the facts
is a sure sign it is not interested in pursuing the type of
"body-cavity search" inspection regime that would be required for a
complete dismantlement of the North's weapons programs.
The second area where a U.S.-China dialogue needs straight talk is
Taiwan. Maintaining a defense relationship with Taiwan was an
explicit condition of U.S. normalization with China in 1979, and
the survival and success of Taiwan's new democratic government is
in Washington's interest. Taiwan is one of America's top 10 export
markets and a key defense and intelligence partner. As such, it has
been a consistent U.S. policy that Taiwan's political status may
not be changed except with the explicit "assent" of the people of
Taiwan.
China apparently feels that military posturing will induce the U.S.
to back away from its support for Taiwan. Over the past four
months, China has demanded the so-called "Three Stops" -- that the
U.S. ends all arms sales, official encounters with Taiwan and
support for Taiwan's role in international organizations. In the
meantime, China has increased its missile deployments, expected to
reach an estimated 600 by the end of 2004 from 500 in 2003. More
disturbing, defense sources in Washington have said that China has
dramatically increased the number of jet-fighter sorties along the
"center-line" of the Taiwan Strait in recent weeks.
In confronting Chinese demands that Washington abandon its defense
support for Taiwan, Mr. Powell should restate that it has been U.S.
policy for 25 years to sell arms to Taiwan, and that the U.S. could
not have normalized relations with China in 1979 unless this was
clearly understood. He might also repeat patiently, as President
Ronald Reagan declared in 1982, that the level of arms sales is
"conditioned absolutely" upon the continued commitment of China to
the peaceful solution of the cross-strait differences.
Finally, Mr. Powell should remind his Chinese hosts (in the words
of Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly) that Washington's "one
China policy" is not the same as Beijing's "one China principle."
He should make clear that Washington's policy must not be
misinterpreted as an acknowledgement that Beijing has any right to
use force against Taiwan. According to Mr. Kelly, America's policy
is that Beijing should renounce the use of force toward Taiwan, and
that both sides should "pursue dialogue as soon as possible through
any available channels, without preconditions" and "on an equal
basis."
China's aggressiveness in East Asia is not limited to Taiwan.
Chinese maritime vessels are pushing the envelope in Japanese
waters in the East China Sea. Mr. Powell must therefore be prepared
to caution China against giving official permits to Chinese
oil-exploration ships to begin resource surveys in Japanese waters
near Okinawa and the Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyu
Islands. Chinese oil exploration in Japan's exclusive economic zone
is designed to probe for weakness in the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security
Treaty.
Mr. Powell must be prepared to repeat clearly the U.S. position
that the Senkaku Islands have been under Japanese administrative
control since they were returned as part of the reversion of
Okinawa in 1972. He should leave the Chinese in no doubt that the
U.S. will support its most important ally in Asia, just as Japan
has supported Washington in the war against terror.
In these important foreign-policy matters, a candid, clear dialogue
between Washington and Beijing is essential if both sides are to
avoid stumbling into a crisis.
Mr. Tkacik, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in
Washington, D.C., is a retired officer in the U.S. foreign service
who served in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Taipei.
First appeared in The Wall Street Journal