For most of the past five years, China has been Rodney Dangerfield
in Washington -- "it just don't get no respect." But in the current
Asian currency meltdown, China's stance deserves everyone's
respect.
As recently as last October's Clinton-Jiang summit, doubt persisted in Washington that the United States could work with Beijing on the issues where its behavior was seen as "contravening international norms" such as human rights, nuclear-related exports and trade concerns. A few weeks ago this attitude changed. Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers flew to Beijing to confer with China's top bankers on the Asian crisis and came away from his meetings saying that China's steady maintenance of a strong currency -- the yuan -- was "the most important contribution that China could make to stability in Asia."
China's currency policies mark a sea change in Beijing's view of
itself in the international marketplace, and signal that Beijing
has now become an economic power with global, not just domestic,
responsibilities. Alone of the Asian economies, China has made
regional stability its top priority -- at some cost to
itself.
Last summer, when the Thai and Indonesian currencies crumbled,
virtually every player in the Far East let its currency slide.
Except China. The People's Bank of China stood firm, even tweaking
the yuan's value up a tad. At the time, Beijing's central bankers
had good reason to bolster the yuan. A strong yuan supported the
Hong Kong dollar (which is still under speculative pressure) and
improved the Beijing government's political position at home during
the critical 15th Communist Party Congress in
September.
When the going got tough after October's Hong Kong stock market
crash (and Wall Street's own correction), the People's Bank could
have been forgiven if it had tacked with the wind.
China's export growth was slowing and inward foreign investment
dropping, each reason enough to let a currency slip a little. China
also wrestles with restructuring its state enterprises into public
stock companies, and it faces a serious banking crisis. A cheaper
yuan would help retire bad debts, and a modest drop wouldn't risk
public confidence. After the collapse of South Korea's economy in
November, certainly no one would have blamed China for a
devaluation. Indeed, international finance analysts in Hong Kong
predicted yuan devaluations of between 5 and 10 percent, and
pointed out that a strong yuan would damage China's already slowing
export industries.
Instead, China's central bankers went on record supporting the
yuan. At first, Asian reaction was tepid because, of course,
central bankers all insist, right before a devaluation, that
there'll be no devaluation -- it's standard practice. So, China's
president, premier and premier-designate all made public and
repeated commitments to no devaluation, staking their own
political reputations on their ability to ride out the storm. These
were bold moves by serious statesmen, but they got little enough
credit for them in the world press.
Not all countries were so statesmanlike. Taipei's central bank,
which was under much less pressure than China, and which controls
the world's third largest foreign exchange reserves (after China
and Japan), looked the other way as its stable New Taiwan Dollar
lost nearly 20 percent. Taiwan's was a pure "competitive
devaluation," done rather than let South Korean, Malay or Thai
exports underprice Taiwan's in U.S. markets. (To be fair, Taiwan
has belatedly moved to shore up the NT dollar after much
arm-twisting by an angry Washington).
And just a short four years ago, China itself devalued the yuan
with little regard for its economic ripples through Asia. In fact,
some analysts say China's big 1994 devaluation snowballed into the
competitive crisis that East Asian exporters face today.
Larry Summers himself is all too aware that maintaining the value of China's yuan will be hard. In talks with him recently, China's premier-designate told Summers the Asian currency crisis poses "severe challenges." But China is no longer a "regional" economic power looking out solely for its own interests. China has become a global economic, trading and now financial power with far broader responsibilities in the Asian economy than ever before. In the long run, it will be in China's interest to do its part to maintain currency stability in Asia, and its part is an extremely important one. It's time for Washington to come to terms with Beijing's new leadership role in the global economy and to give it more than just "a little respect."
John J.
Tkacik, Jr., a former foreign service officer, is
president of a consulting firm. Dean Cheng is an East Asia analyst
formerly with the Office of Technology Assessment. He is also a
Research Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage
Foundation.
Originally appeared in the Washington Post.