Hopes for
China's quick entry into the World Trade Organization, or for it to
achieve permanent "Normal Trade Relations" status, are going up in
the smoke of China's pulverized Belgrade Embassy -- and the US
Consul General's now burned-out residence in Chengdu.
On Sunday morning, two U.S. Senators who normally are quite sympathetic to China, Joe Lieberman (D-CN) and John McCain (R-NM), charged the Chinese government with orchestrating the attacks on the U.S. and British Embassies in Beijing, and on their consulates throughout China. Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) pointed to other festering boils bedeviling US-China relations these days -- espionage, human rights, campaign finance, satellite technology.
Meanwhile, Chinese leaders, the Chinese media, and thousands of
demonstrating students charged the U.S. with deliberately targeting
their embassy in Belgrade for destruction.
Even the normally sanguine Ambassador James Sasser sounded harassed
and bleary-eyed in his day-long series of telephone interviews from
his besieged U.S. Embassy in Beijing early Sunday night and Monday
morning. Sasser, five staffers and about eight U.S. Marine Security
Guards finished their second day sweeping glass from third floor
office floors.
In Chengdu, Sasser said Chinese police finally stopped attackers
against the consulate just as they were breaking down the code-room
vault with a battering ram.
Spiraling Out of Control
On ABC's "This Week in Washington," Chinese Ambassador Li Zhaoxing
berated Sam Donaldson for not
bothering to express concern for, or even ask about, the well-being
of China's diplomats in Belgrade, before he demanded to know
whether the Chinese government would guarantee the safety of U.S.
personnel in China.
President Clinton and President Jiang Zemin are letting things
spiral out of control.
While the White House scrambled to assure Beijing that the Belgrade
bombing was just a horrible accident, Ambassador Sasser was telling
CNN there was evidence the Chinese government had planned the
retaliatory attacks on U.S. installations in China.
At the same time, Clinton's own congressional democrats were
already staking out the hard line on China. Along with House
Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and Senator Joe Lieberman, Senator
Tom Kerry (D-KS) blasted China's espionage efforts on yesterday's
"Meet the Press."
The fragile coalition that the Clinton Administration seemed
gradually to be building up in Congress following what it thought
were successful trade negotiations with Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji
was in tatters after Friday evening's destruction of
the Chinese embassy.
In Beijing, the surly acquiescence of China's powerful
state-enterprises to Premier Zhu's concessions in Washington turned
to outright opposition as top Chinese economic officials leaked
stories of cabinet-level mutinies against making further
concessions to the Americans.
Anti-Diplomatic Violence
Hardliners in China's Politburo now call the shots. Who else could
have given the go-ahead for the vandalism of the U.S. offices in
China? Both CNN and Public Broadcasting Corp. ran news items Sunday
describing how hundreds of demonstrators were brought to Beijing's
diplomatic quarter in busses, a sure sign that the demonstrations
were organized by the police.
On Sunday, Chinese vice president Hu Jintao made a
nationally-televised speech assuring the demonstrators that "the
Chinese government firmly supports and protects, in accordance with
the law, all legal protest activities," the first such speech by a
Chinese leader in recent memory.
Of course, even Vice President Hu, in the same speech, cautioned
against "overreaction." This left no doubt in Washington that
someone in the Chinese government gave the go-ahead to the
diplomatic and consular destruction in China, and that neither
President Jiang nor Premier Zhu had the power or the energy to stop
it.
Both Clinton and Jiang may hope that the latest round of
anti-diplomatic violence in China, and China-bashing in Washington
will have a cathartic effect -- that with one great burst, we'll
get it out of our systems. But the problem is that rhetoric is
exceedingly difficult to control. It is certainly out of control in
Washington, and will
probably get worse as the pictures of the ruined diplomatic
compounds appear on the front pages of America's Monday morning
papers, and as images of last summer's obliteration of the U.S.
embassy in Nairobi are recalled.
Long Memory
Rhetoric is also out of control in China. Hardliners in the state
enterprises are tired of being
pushed around by American trade negotiators; hardliners in the
People's Liberation Army are tired of U.S. protection of Taiwan;
the Chinese police are just plain tired of the U.S.A.; the
propaganda departments are tired of communist ideology always being
on the defensive; and the Chinese newspapers, who lost a
correspondent in the Belgrade attacks, are now genuinely angry at
the United States. There is no patience anymore for putting up with
the U.S. President Jiang and Premier Zhu, who both have counseled
moderation and accommodation, are increasingly isolated and
out-voted in the Politburo.
Things are unraveling in Beijing
After the dust settles around China's bombed-out Belgrade embassy,
and as the smoke clears from the smoldering consulates in China,
perhaps reason and compassion will return.
Perhaps both Beijing and Washington can restart efforts to move China's World Trade Organization membership ahead.
Perhaps. But both Americans and Chinese have a long memory for these kinds of things.
John J.
Tkacik, Jr., is president of China Business Intelligence,
an Alexandria, Virginia, consulting firm. He is also a Research
Fellow in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation.
Originally appeared in China Online.