We constantly hear that America has a "One China" policy, most recently during the dust-up over Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's Aug. 3 suggestion that two sovereign entities exist on either side of the Taiwan Strait. The "One China" phrase was immediately invoked in Washington, and seems to have calmed things down by reassuring Beijing that the United States was not aiding and abetting a "Taiwan independence" move. But legally, in fact, it had nothing to do with the issue at hand.
"One China" most emphatically does not mean that the United States
accepts Beijing's claims to sovereignty over Taiwan. What it means
is that the U.S. recognizes no more than one
Chinese government at a time -- and not multiple regimes --
according to the territory they control. That is what the U.S. did
with the two Germanys and may ultimately do with the two Koreas.
West Germany used to insist on this approach for itself: the
"Hallstein doctrine" forbade recognition of the German Democratic
Republic as well as Bonn, a counterproductive approach that was
dropped by Chancellor Willy Brandt, a major positive step towards
peace in Cold War Europe.
In 1972, U.S. President Richard Nixon "acknowledged" the view, then
held by governments on both sides of the strait (Taiwan being a
mainlander-run dictatorship), that Taiwan was part of China -- but
he did not accept it or agree to it. Then in 1979, President Jimmy
Carter cut all official ties with Taiwan and embraced Beijing as
the sole legitimate government of China, something Mr. Nixon had
not done. But while the U.S. recognized Beijing as the sole
government of China, Washington was agnostic about the status of
Taiwan and who, if anybody, might be its legitimate government. In
fact, even when the government of Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of
China moved to Taiwan after losing the mainland in 1949, the U.S.
did not recognize its sovereignty over the island itself -- only
its administrative control -- even while America continued to
recognize Chiang's regime, until 1979, as the legitimate government
of China.
Confusing? Indeed it is. But here is the bottom line. As U.S.
President Reagan put it in his six assurances to Taiwan in 1982 and
as has been reaffirmed by every subsequent administration, the U.S.
"takes no position on the sovereignty of Taiwan." The status of
Taiwan under international law, as the U.S. State Department
lawyers put it, "remains to be determined." Nothing the U.S. said
to China has changed that. Thus, Washington has behaved very
responsibly, as custodian of the ultimate rights of the people of
Taiwan, the formerly Japanese-controlled island surrendered to the
U.S. at the end of the Second World War, and never transferred by
America to anyone else.
Now for the final and massively ironic twist. In 1979 when
President Carter cut all official relations with Taipei and ended
the defense alliance, the U.S. intention was to aid and abet the
island's incorporation by China. Taiwan was considered an American
client state like the unfortunate South Vietnam, and the near
universal expectation at the time was that the diplomatic and
military break was a blow it could not bear. After a decent
interval, so ran the common wisdom, Taiwan's mainlander leadership
would make a deal for incorporation into China under "one country,
two systems" -- proposed for that purpose by Deng Xiaoping. That
would have rendered the sovereignty issue moot, and no other
outcome was seriously considered.
But that was more than 20 years ago and we all know what happened.
Far from collapsing, Taiwan rose to the occasion and legitimized
its own government by freeing the press and political prisoners,
and carrying out repeated and fully democratic elections. By
international standards, today its government has a far more
legitimate claim to Taiwan than the government of the People's
Republic of China, which has avoided the remotest approaches to
freedom and democracy, does to China itself. Hence the anomalous
present situation which finds the U.S. closely tied to a
dictatorship but bereft of official connections to a path-breaking
democracy, while professing to hope that Taiwan the democracy,
whose status it considers undetermined, will nevertheless join
China, the dictatorship, with which it pursues close ties. Stranger
things have been seen in international politics, and this one is
not about to change -- until and unless someone appears on the
Chinese side with the qualities of a Willy Brandt.
Meanwhile the U.S. must work with the ambiguity, insist on non-use
of force, and press both sides to avoid rocking the boat -- even
while grasping that despite Washington's intent since the 1970s to
somehow resolve the issue, it has far from succeeded in doing so
and in some respects rendered it more volatile. Genuine resolution
is of course possible, but the U.S. lacks the power
to deliver it.
Resolution will come, however, and as long as deterrence is
maintained, most likely not with the rain of rockets that some in
Beijing threaten. Beijing has abruptly switched course before when
its interests demanded, so let us not be overly astonished when the
day dawns when Beijing drops its hardline and militaristic rhetoric
and deals realistically and equitably with its democratic neighbor
Taiwan. Its interests require that sooner or later it
must.
John
J. Tkacik, Jr., a research
fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., is a retired
officer in the U.S. foreign service who served in Beijing,
Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Taipei. Mr. Waldron is the director of
Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a professor
of international relations at the University of
Pennsylvania.
Originally appeared in the Asian Wall Street Journal.