China National
Offshore Oil Corporation presumably chose the codename "Operation
Bao Chuan" for its Unocal offer to conjure up national pride in its
bid to buy America's ninth largest oil company. For bao chuan were
the huge treasure ships that traveled across the Indian Ocean to
Africa in the early 1400s, and played a crucial role in spreading
Chinese influence overseas.
Now the Chinese government-owned company is trying to perform a
similar feat by purchasing a vital strategic asset -- unless the
U.S. Treasury-led Committee on Foreign Investment in the United
States (Cfius) wakes up to the threat this poses to American
national security and blocks Cnooc's bid.
That's certainly what Beijing would do if the tables were turned.
China has always treated energy matters as issues of national
security and would never dream of allowing foreigners to control a
Chinese offshore oil company. While Cnooc and Beijing's two other
oil giants list minority stakes on international bourses, foreign
investors are not allowed any significant say in corporate
governance and majority control remains firmly in Chinese
government hands.
Western oil companies are kept on a short leash when they operate
in China. While reporting on South China's economy for the U.S.
Consulate in Guangzhou 15 years ago, I witnessed how Cnooc
exercised tight control over joint ventures with foreign oil
companies to develop China's offshore fields. The foreign partners
generally assumed all the risk and responsibility in return for a
minority stake that ensured Cnooc maintained a controlling interest
in every venture. All the foreign companies involved had to put up
with Chinese participation in every aspect of exploration,
surveying, mapping and drilling. Half the production crews were
Chinese "in training," and a party commissar oversaw
operations.
At that time, Beijing posed no military threat. In the early 1990s,
China's navy was at least three decades behind the U.S. Pacific
Fleet. Now the gap has shrunk to a decade -- perhaps even less.
Last November, a nuclear-powered Chinese Han-class submarine was
spotted carrying out a reconnaissance of the U.S. base in Guam -- a
first for the noisy Chinese Han subs. As China's nuclear submarine
fleet is augmented this year with quieter Type 093 and 094 class
boats, the People's Liberation Navy will find it easier to probe
American coastal defenses on extended underwater endurance
missions.
In allowing a Chinese-government owned entity to purchase Unocal,
the U.S. will be handing Beijing an asset of potentially strategic
significance if it ever came to a military conflict. The California
oil company operates 10 platforms in Alaska's Cook Inlet, the bay
governing access to Anchorage -- and Elmendorf Air Force Base. Cook
Inlet is also home to the Kodiak Island Launch Center, and both
facilities are key to the National Ballistic Missile Defense
system. In addition, Unocal's deep-sea exploration platforms in the
Gulf of Mexico provide an ideal vantage point for observing
activity in the submarine yards of Pascagoula, Mississippi, and the
U.S. Navy's facilities of Galveston, Texas.
Cnooc insists that its bid is motivated solely by commercial
considerations. But the reservations of its own nonexecutive
directors, who blocked its earlier attempt to make a bid for Unocal
in April, tell a different story. According to The Wall Street
Journal, nonexecutive director Kenneth Courtis opposed as excessive
the then proposed offer of $16.7 billion. That is substantially
less than the $18.5 billion bid that Cnooc finally put forward last
week (and which swells to $19.6 billion if other attendant costs
are included, such as half-billion dollar fee that Cnooc is obliged
to pay Unocal's existing suitor Chevron Texaco for its
eleventh-hour interference).
In the end, it was not the nonexecutive directors who took last
week's decision to go ahead (Indeed Mr. Courtis reportedly recused
himself to avoid a conflict of interest with his employers at
Goldman Sachs, who are advising Cnooc on the bid). Rather it was
Cnooc's directors, representing the Chinese government's 71%
ownership of the company, who chose to go ahead with a cash bid
equivalent to 90% of the company's market capitalization. One which
will require Cnooc to borrow $16 billion from its parent company,
Chinese banks and through Cnooc bond sales, all of which would have
to be guaranteed by the Chinese government. These men obviously
have other than economic interests in mind. So one can sympathize
with Chevron vice Chairman Peter Robertson when he complained last
Friday, "clearly, this is not a commercial competition, we are
competing with the Chinese government."
A Chinese takeover of Unocal's holdings in Thailand, Burma,
Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh would hasten the day when the
entire region drifts into China's orbit. If the Bush administration
quietly acquiesces, the unintended message to Southeast Asia will
be that America is on the wane here. And Cnooc's acquisition of
Unocal's Azerbaijan operations will give Beijing more influence in
Central Asia.
Western democracies are ill-equipped to deal with long-term
strategic and economic challenges from centrally-controlled but
market-oriented dictatorships in the post-Soviet era. The only tool
left in Washington is the Cfius, which must review Cnooc's
"treasure ship" bid for Unocal to determine whether it threatens
national security. It could simply require a Chinese-owned Unocal
to divest itself of any assets in the U.S. But ideally Cfius's
members will also consider the long-term strategic erosion of
America's global position posed by "Operation Treasure Ship" -- and
reject Cnooc's bid altogether.
John Tkacik a
senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington,
D.C., is a retired officer in the U.S. foreign service who served
in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Taipei.
First appeaered in the Asian Wall Street Journal