The principled approach
that President Bush has taken in foreign policy has been validated
by the results of the election on November 2, 2004. President Bush
won the election with more votes than other any president in
American history, and his party, the Republicans, have gained seats
in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In short, the
majority of Americans have endorsed the direction of President
Bush's foreign and domestic policies.
The President's policies with respect to the Korean Peninsula were
set forth clearly during the first Presidential debate in Coral
Gables, Florida, on September 30, 2004. President Bush said that he
believes that North Korea and Kim Jong Il failed to honor the
agreement it had signed with the Clinton Administration and with
South Korea. He began a new round of multilateral dialogue with
North Korea in his first administration and contrasted his
multilateral approach to the bilateral approach taken by President
Clinton between 1993 and 2000.
In the debate with Senator Kerry, President Bush emphasized the
need to have five parties talking to North Korea: South Korea,
Japan, Russia, China, and the United States. And he argued in the
debate that it is important to have five voices talking to Kim Jong
Il because if Kim decides again not to honor an agreement "he's not
only doing injustice to America, he'd be doing injustice to China
(and the other negotiating partners) as well." Finally, President
Bush stated without equivocation that he thinks it is a mistake to
open up a separate, bilateral dialogue between the United States
and North Korea. Staying unified in a five-nation coalition is the
most effective way to send a clear message to Kim Jong Il.
My view is that our allies in South Korea, and the negotiating
partners in the Six-Party talks throughout Asia, can count on
President Bush's firm resolve to follow the formula he outlined in
the election campaign. As he has stated a number of times,
President Bush will seek a peaceful, negotiated outcome to create a
nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. He will try to ensure that there is
some means to verify that, this time, Kim Jong Il honors any
agreement he makes. The "Bush Doctrine" calls for the use of
pre-emptive force to prevent an imminent attack on the United
States, but President Bush has made it clear on several occasions
that he wants a peaceful, negotiated settlement on the Korean
Peninsula and has no intention of initiating the use of force
against North Korea. I think the world can take President Bush at
his word on this point.
There are a few things that America's allies in South Korea should
expect.
First, expect a long, slow process. I don't think that Kim Jong Il
will rush immediately to the negotiating table for a new round of
talks. Pyongyang will likely wait for President Bush's inaugural
address on January 20, 2005, for any hints on future policies that
may come from that. After all, at the State of the Union Address on
January 29, 2002, President Bush used the term "Axis of Evil" to
refer to North Korea, Iran and Iraq. Kim will wait to see how North
Korea is characterized, if at all, in the inaugural address.
Second, expect adjustments in the second Bush Administration's
appointed officials. It will be some time before any changes or
adjustments in the National Security Council staff and the foreign
and security policy team are made. And after that, some officials
will require confirmation by the Senate. Thus, there may be a set
of working group talks with North Korea but a pause in full
negotiations while the second "Bush team" is fully at work.
Third, expect a consistent approach. The patient, principled
approach taken in the first Bush Administration will continue, a
rush to the negotiating table will not replace it.
Finally, expect the multi-lateral talks to continue at a level
below that of Secretary of State. Do not expect to see Secretary of
State Colin Powell, or his successor, doing "the Macarena" in a
stadium in North Korea with Kim Jong Il like Madeleine
Albright.
Meanwhile, the Bush Administration will move forward with other
initiatives in Asia. There will be a military force posture
adjustment under the Global Defense Posture Review that devotes
more ships and aircraft devoted to maintaining the peace and
security of the Western Pacific. At the same time we can expect to
see an improvement in mobility and command and control in the
region along with a reduction in ground forces on the Korean
Peninsula. This will not weaken our allied defensive posture in
Korea.
President Bush will move forward with the deployment of a layered
system of ballistic missile defenses designed to protect deployed
American forces, our friends and allies, and the United States from
attacks by, or threats from, hostile ballistic missiles. The United
States will continue to work closely with our allies in Japan on
the development and deployment of such defenses and will encourage
the government in South Korea to protect its own people with
ballistic missile defenses.
American security policy will continue to deal with the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems.
I expect the second Bush Administration to pursue the Proliferation
Security Initiative with vigor and to address future military
threats with a combination of diplomacy, deterrence, strategic
defenses, arms control and non-proliferation initiatives and
capable offensive forces. President Bush will pursue the global war
on terror and work closely with America's allies.
Larry M. Wortzel is vice president for foreign policy and defense studies at The Heritage Foundation.
Appeared in the Kyunghyang Daily News