In nationwide
local elections held on May 31 in South Korea, the main opposition
Grand National Party (GNP) achieved an overwhelming victory. It won
11 of 16 provincial governor and major city mayor seats, including
Seoul's, by a large margin. The ruling Uri Party's resounding
defeat is a setback for President Roh Moo Hyun who has been
struggling with low approval ratings and widespread public
discontent. But, while it may be tempting for Roh's critics to view
these election results as a rebuke of his leadership, particularly
in the foreign policy arena, South Korea's orientation towards
North Korea and the United States is unlikely to change
dramatically.
These elections, for approximately 3,860 local administrative
officials and councilors, were considered to be a public barometer
of President Roh's progressive government and the Uri Party, in
anticipation of next year's presidential elections. Roh Moo Hyun is
limited by the law to one single five-year presidential term. The
Korean public has become increasingly dissatisfied with the Roh
government's social reform measures, as well as its policies that
support reconciliation with North Korea, greater equality in
relations with the United States, and increased animosity toward
Japan. The conservative GNP, while maintaining majority power in
the National Assembly, had seen the elections as an opportunity to
regain popular mandate for their positions.
The GNP's success was not unexpected, but the extent of its
victory, not only in the number of gained seats but by an almost
two-to-one margin in may cases, deals a serious blow to the
President and his Uri Party, which will have to restructure in the
wake of its loss. The Uri's defeat presents an opportunity to
regroup and regain credibility before the December 2007
presidential race and national elections in April 2008. During this
process, however, infighting both within the party and with the
opposition is likely to become nastier, which will only further
polarize the political process. The extent of viciousness during
the campaigns was evident in the brutal physical attack on Park
Geun-hye, the head of the GNP, by a drunken assailant who slashed
Park's face with a knife.
Now that the GNP has received a strong boost from the public, its
responsibility to present solid policy alternatives to the ruling
Uri Party has also increased. As Prime Minister Goh Kun observed,
"[T]he election results should be seen as the ruling Uri party's
complete defeat, rather than as a GNP victory." The opportunities,
however, to meet popular expectation for a sea change in the
nation's political landscape should not be overestimated.
The democratic process in South Korea, while having made astounding
progress in just a mere decade, is still maturing. During such
periods of transformation, degrees of instability and uncertainty
are natural and expected. Moreover, the Korean public is also in
the process of finding its voice and learning about responsible
political participation.
Rapid technological advances have affected the democratic process
and the public's participation in it. The widespread use of the
Internet-South Korea is one of the most "wired" societies in the
world in terms of broadband access-and the proliferation of other
less traditional forms of media have dramatically altered
information dissemination. These new outlets have allowed political
leaders to manipulate public sentiments, often in irresponsible
ways. For example, nationalism is often used by promoting
anti-American or anti-Japanese sentiment.
As South Korea becomes "freer," views on controversial issues-such
as how to resolve North Korea's nuclear threat and the future of
the alliance with the United States-have grown more diverse. With
the Roh Moo Hyun government determined to pursue its own policy of
reconciliation with the North regardless of public skepticism,
Washington must be prepared to address increasingly vocal and
public criticism of the United States and its policies. The Bush
administration's maintenance of a strong stance against North Korea
is unfortunately misperceived by some as being at odds with Korean
national interests and goals. Nothing is further from the truth.
Like Koreans, Americans do not desire war on the Korean peninsula
and prefer a peaceful resolution to the nuclear issue. It is
absolutely in U.S. short and long-term interests to promote peace,
stability and a prosperous future on the peninsula.
As the pendulum of political power in Korea swings back and forth,
the United States should be mindful that the ensuing cacophony of
clashing opinions and public debate is actually is in fact a
positive result of a virtuous development on the Southern half of
the peninsula: a maturing democracy. Washington's challenge will be
to find a way to work together with both sides of the political
spectrum to encourage responsible outcomes that serve the mutual
interests of both countries.
Balbina
Y. Hwang, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Northeast
Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.