What is the risk of a terrorist attack in the United States perpetrated by foreign nationals released at the border or paroled in by the Biden administration? No one knows. 

Not me. Not FBI Director Chris Wray. In an op-ed for Foreign Affairs published on June 10, former CIA Deputy Director Mike Morrell writes that “the terror threat posed by vulnerabilities at the U.S.-Mexico border is ‘blinking red’” but he doesn’t know either.

Risk is an estimate, like the number of “gotaways" who sneak into the country undetected every year. It’s not a calculation, like the 194 known or suspected terrorists (KSTs) actually caught entering illegally in Fiscal Year 2024 so far, which Customs and Border Protection (CBP) counts.

More than 20 years ago, I had lunch with a Foreign Service officer who had issued visas to half the 9/11 hijackers when working in Saudi Arabia. Back then, young men from this rich, stable country were thought to be low-risk travelers. They went to U.S. universities, spent money, obeyed our laws, and came home. They are still good risks, but trust me, a single man from the Middle East wanting to come to the U.S. for flying lessons gets asked some questions. 

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After 9/11, the U.S. developed better screening methods, collected more information via fingerprints and facial scans, and improved inter-agency information sharing. This made it harder for known bad guys to get in—but not those whose records we didn’t have. China, Cuba, and Venezuela are not forthcoming with such information. 

Biden’s relatively open border makes it difficult to assess, much less avoid the risk of terrorism. 

We know that many Americans have had their lives ended or blighted by foreign nationals who had no right to be here. Children have been raped, like a 13-year-old girl in New York City last week. Women like Kayla Hamilton, murdered by members of violent gangs. Mothers like Rachel Morin whose death has allegedly been the result of murder by a man from El Salvador. Victims of drunk drivers like Ignacio Cruz-Mendoza, who had already been sent back to Mexico 16 times when he killed Scott Miller. 

When it comes to terrorists, their acts are planned in advance and well hidden. In May, two men—likely Jordanian illegal aliens—were arrested after attempting to get onto the Quantico Marine base in Virginia. Immigration and Customs Enforcement won’t reveal their names.

The driver who killed himself trying to drive on to Fort Story in Virginia Beach in April crashed and died, and the feds still haven’t told Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin his identity or status. As Youngkin wrote in a letter to Secretary Mayorkas asking for that information, there were only 11 Terrorist Screening Dataset (watchlist) individuals caught at the southern border from Fiscal 2017 to 2020 combined, but we’re already up to 104 this fiscal year. 

In Fiscal 2021, DHS encountered only 342 Chinese between ports of entry. Last year, it was 24,125. Crushed by volume, DHS half-heartedly interviews them and lets them go. In March, a Chinese illegal alien ““accidentally” wandered onto the nation’s largest Marine base in California, Twentynine Palms. According to The Wall Street Journal, there have been more than 100 such supposedly accidental incursions by Chinese nationals in recent years. 

Several countries on the edge of the former Soviet Union such as Dagestan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, are known to have active terrorist groups. The New York Post recently reported that over 1,500 Tajiks illegally crossed our border between October 2020 and May 2024, and a stunning 500 have been “caught” this year alone. Recently, eight Tajiks were caught who had known ties to ISIS. What about those with unknown ties? They were almost all then released. 

In Fiscal 2021, CBP only encountered 3,675 Special Interest Aliens, “people from countries identified by the U.S. government as having conditions that promote or protect terrorism or potentially pose some sort of national security threat,” at the borders. Between October 2022 and August 2023, CBP encountered 74,904. Among that total were 659 Iranians and 538 Syrians—two places which harbor some people who thirst for revenge against the U.S. 

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Despite the obvious risk, our government seems so oblivious to potential disaster that they are allowing in, with no verification of their identity or criminal history back home—thousands of people every day (many of them young men) at our borders. 

On top of this, they are paroling another 1,400 a day. From all over the world, but particularly Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Of the Afghans, how many were the Taliban, rather than its victims? How many of the Haitians were persecuting civilians on behalf of the government or criminal gangs, rather than their victims? Of the Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans, how many worked for their communist regime, rather than against them? 

With these risks to manage, it’s sad to see the Border Patrol diverting its energy from detaining and deporting illegal immigrants to welcoming them. Former Border Patrol chief Rodney Scott said that the usual ratio of 70% of staff out on patrol and 30% doing administrative tasks was now more like 10% to 90%, as agents were re-assigned as social workers.

Meanwhile, the State Department is focused on creating passports for made-up genders, the CIA is painting fingernails for Pride Month, and DHS has changed the name of Special Interest Alien (“alien” is the term used in U.S. law) to Special Interest Migrant—I guess to be inclusive.

It’s pretty much a matter of time before a preventable terrorist attack is carried out in the U.S. by foreign nationals. It’s possible the terrorists will be here on visas just like the 9/11 hijackers, but the unprecedented pool of illegal aliens released or paroled by the Biden administration is a more likely source.