Fixed-Income Assets Can’t Be Left Out of the Picture

COMMENTARY Budget and Spending

Fixed-Income Assets Can’t Be Left Out of the Picture

Nov 19, 2024 1 min read
COMMENTARY BY
EJ Antoni

Research Fellow, Grover M. Hermann Center

EJ Antoni is a Research Fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget.
Chicago Tribune's unionized newsroom staff, production workers, and supporters walk the picket line during one-day strike against owner Alden Global Capital on February 1, 2024. KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

In reality, people don’t feel good about either the economy or their 401(k)s, and stocks aren’t the only asset in people’s portfolios.

Discussions—or even mere mentions—of asset prices and returns on investment should include not only equities and real estate, but also fixed-income assets.

Such a comprehensive view explains why so many people today are dissatisfied with the economy.

Allysia Finley’s “The Biden Economy Is ‘Glorious’—if You’re Wealthy” (Life Science, Nov. 4) paints too rosy a picture of return on investment during the Biden administration by adopting a narrow definition of the word “asset.”

Consider the following excerpt: “Americans who own stocks are feeling good about the economy as they watch their 401(k)s and mutual funds grow. The S&P 500 index has surged by some 50% since January 2021.” In reality, people don’t feel good about either the economy or their 401(k)s, and stocks aren’t the only asset in people’s portfolios.

In a study published in October, I calculate that the past three-and-a-half years have seen the worst average bond returns in at least a century, courtesy of sharp and unexpected increases in inflation and interest rates. Since retirement accounts rely disproportionately on fixed-income assets, individual retirement accounts like 401(k)s have been decimated. From the first quarter of 2021 through the third quarter of this year, the average 401(k) balance has fallen by 9.2% after adjusting for inflation.

Discussions—or even mere mentions—of asset prices and returns on investment should include not only equities and real estate, but also fixed-income assets. Such a comprehensive view explains why so many people today are dissatisfied with the economy: A typical would-be retiree who planned on exiting the workforce at the end of September now must work an additional six years to recoup the real losses to his or her 401(k).

This piece originally appeared in WSJ Opinion

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