When Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) predicted in 2003 that the
Medicare prescription drug benefit would become the "largest
intergenerational tax increase in the history of this country" and
that it would "cause our children's children to have a lower
quality of life than we have had," he wasn't just delivering
another soon-to-be-forgotten Senate floor speech. He was laying the
groundwork for a powerful new tool that allows Senate budget hawks
to beat back legislative schemes that promise to pile long-term
debt on future generations.
Now chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Gregg quietly inserted
section 407 into last year's budget resolution. This obscure
provision requires the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the
long-term costs of legislation before the Senate, breaking it into
four 10-year periods beginning in 2015 and extending through 2055.
Whenever the number crunchers at CBO conclude that a bill "would
cause a net increase in direct spending in excess of $5 billion" in
any one of these periods, a senator is entitled to invoke a "point
of order" against the measure, preventing it from being considered.
The point of order can be waived, but only if at least 60 senators
vote to do so.
How significant is section 407?
Had it been in effect in 2003, CBO's estimate of the long-term
costs of the Medicare drug entitlement would have been published on
the eve of the Senate floor debate. The multi-trillion-dollar price
tag probably would have been enough to torpedo the entire troubled
bill. Indeed, 44 senators voted against the new entitlement on
final passage, more than the 40 votes needed to sink it under
Section 407.
The first senator to use this tool was Nevada Republican and
veterinarian John Ensign, who invoked it to fix another troubled
bill, the Fairness in Asbestos Injury Resolution ("FAIR") Act. FAIR
would remove asbestos claims from our dysfunctional tort system and
compensate asbestos claimants through a trust fund administered by
the federal government.
Conservatives have long sought a reasonable way out of the asbestos
litigation nightmare. As my colleague James Gattuso notes, although
asbestos liti¬gation has cost some $70 billion and erased
60,000 jobs since the 1960s, little has gone to the truly injured.
Trial lawyer fees account for almost 60 percent of resources
expended, and much of the rest has gone to claimants without real
impairments.
Unfortunately, Ensign and others concluded, FAIR presented its own
set of problems. For one thing, it would generate so many claims
(permitting, critics contend, some individuals whose illnesses
aren't even connected to asbestos exposure to qualify for payments)
the fund would go bankrupt within three years. A report from the
General Accountability Office examining four similar victim
compensation funds reinforced their fears. Over time, the report
found, all four trust funds added new categories of eligible
"victims," covered more medical conditions, and offered more
benefits. The estimated total cost of the black lung trust fund,
for example, skyrocketed from $3 billion in the 1960s to $41
billion today.
One respected economic consulting firm calculated that, upon the
fund's exhaustion, future taxpayers would have to shoulder between
$300 billion and $695 billion in excess. Finally, CBO confirmed
that "there is a significant likelihood that the fund's revenues
would fall short of the amount needed to pay valid claims, debt
service, and administrative costs."
Ensign decided to invoke section 407. Thanks to a bizarre
coalition of liberal Democrats looking to protect the status quo
for the trial bar and a few mostly Republican fiscal hawks (North
Dakota's Kent Conrad stands out as a Democrat motivated by sincere
fiscal concerns), he prevailed with no votes to spare.
Ensign's victory establishes two important precedents.
First, in requiring the CBO to publish the long-term costs of
proposed government expansions before the vote, Senators can't
later say they were shocked (shocked!) by the true cost of their
legislative tomfoolery.
Second, in backing Ensign, the Senate also rejected the insidious
argument of the bill's lead sponsor, Judiciary Committee Chairman
Arlen Specter (R-Penn.), that FAIR should be exempt from budget
rules because no federal money was involved. "The federal
government," he asserted, "only acts as a conduit for the private
funding of an asbestos trust fund" and therefore neither creates a
federal program nor a new federal entity. Had the Senate accepted
Specter's logic, taxpayers could be held responsible for trillions
in liability not only from FAIR, but from other proposals that
surreptitiously seek to evade fiscal accountability.
Mike Franc, who has held a number of positions on Capitol Hill, is vice president of Government Relations at The Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in Human Events Online