The Center for Data Analysis specializes in quantitative research and simulation modeling of public policies for the Heritage Foundation. The CDA specializes in modeling the effects of federal fiscal policy, trade policy, federal social policy, and energy and environmental policy. Policymakers rely on CDA’s independent policy research in each of these areas to inform their decisions. 

This page lists research by CDA staff and documentation of the methodology behind CDA models, as well as notable results. It should be a useful reference for practitioners in the field of public policy. It will be updated as new publications become available. 

Featured Backgrounders and Reports

Public Finance

Taxes Will Go Up in Every Congressional District if the TCJA Is Repealed
Adam Michel, Kevin Dayaratna, and Parker Sheppard | October 17, 2018

Tax Cuts in Every Congressional District in Every State
Kevin Dayaratna, Parker Sheppard, and Adam Michel | July 23, 2018

• Heritage Foundation Individual Income Tax Model
• Augmented Solow Growth Model

The Personal and Fiscal Impact of the Social Security 2100 Act
Rachel Greszler and Drew Gonshorowski | June 11, 2019

Is Social Security Worth Its Cost?
Kevin Dayaratna, Rachel Greszler, and Patrick Tyrrell | July 10, 2018

• Heritage Foundation Social Security Model

Energy and Environment

Assessing the Costs and Benefits of the Green New Deal’s Energy Policies
Kevin Dayaratna and Nicolas Loris | July 24, 2019

• Heritage Energy Model

Turning America’s Energy Abundance into Energy Dominance
Kevin Dayaratna, and Nicolas Loris | November 3, 2017

Time to Unlock America’s Vast Oil and Gas Resources
Kevin Dayaratna, David Kreutzer, and Nicolas Loris | September 1, 2016

Consequences of Paris Protocol: Devastating Economic Costs, Essentially Zero Environmental Benefits
Kevin Dayaratna, Nicolas Loris, and David Kreutzer | April 13, 2016

Unfounded FUND: Yet Another EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game
Kevin Dayaratna and David Kreutzer | April 29, 2014

Loaded DICE: An EPA Model Not Ready for the Big Game 
Kevin Dayaratna and David Kreutzer | November 32, 2013

Public Health

COVID-19: A Statistical Analysis of Data from Throughout the Pandemic and Recommendations for Moving On
Kevin Dayaratna and Doug Badger | February 24, 2022 

A Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 Breakthrough Infections and Deaths
Kevin Dayaratna and Norbert Michel | August 12, 2021 

A Statistical Analysis of COVID-19 and Government Protection Measures in the U.S. 
Kevin Dayaratna and Andrew Vanderplas | March 18, 2021

A Comparative Analysis of Policy Approaches to COVID-19 Around the World, with Recommendations for U.S. Lawmakers
Kevin Dayaratna, Patrick Tyrell, and Andrew Vanderplas | July 20, 2020

The Challenges of Forecasting the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19
Kevin Dayaratna and Norbert Michel | April 15, 2020

Peer-Reviewed Publications of CDA Staff

A New Benford Test for Clustered Data with Applications to American Elections.
Katherine M. Anderson, Kevin Dayaratna, Drew Gonshorowski, and Steven J. Miller.
Stats. 2022, 5(3), 841-855; https://doi.org/10.3390/stats5030049 | 2022

Hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 in the United States.
Kevin D. Dayaratna, Drew Gonshorowski & Mary Kolesar
Journal of Applied Statistics | DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2022.2069232.| 2022

Climate sensitivity, agricultural productivity and the social cost of carbon in FUND
Kevin Dayaratna, Ross McKitrick, and Patrick Michaels
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 22, 433-448 | 2020

Empirically Constrained Climate Sensitivity and the Social Cost of Carbon
Kevin Dayaratna, Ross McKitrick, and David Kreutzer
Climate Change Economics. Vol. 8, No. 2 | 2017

Bayesian semiparametric density ratio modelling with applications to medical malpractice reform
Kevin Dayaratna and Benjamen Kedem
Statistical Modelling. Vol. 16, Issue 4 | 2016

Speeches and Congressional Testimony

Cost/Benefit Analysis of the Green New Deal
Kevin Dayaratna
International Conference on Climate Change | 2019

Healthy Oceans and Healthy Economies: The State of Our Oceans in the 21st Century
Kevin Dayaratna | Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife, Committee on Natural Resources, U.S. House of Representatives | February 7, 2018

Methods and Parameters Used to Establish the Social Cost of Carbon
Kevin Dayaratna | Testimony before the Subcommittee on Environment and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives | February 24, 2017