Almost everything is in short supply in North Korea --
especially transparency. That's one reason so many longtime Korea
watchers viewed the agreement arising from the Six-Party Talks
earlier this year with such skepticism.
The gladsome news was that North Korea agreed to "provide a
complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs" by
year's end. But this is the same North Korea that agreed to end its
nuclear weapons ambitions during the Clinton era and subsequently
declared it had done so. Only it hadn't.
North Korea's "data declaration" may come this week. It merits
close examination, for it will test both Pyongyang's willingness to
abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Washington's resolve to hold the
rogue nation to strict verification standards. The latter is
critical, because the vague language of the agreement does not
clearly delineate North Korea's responsibilities. That opens the
door to misinterpretation or deliberate malfeasance by
Pyongyang.
U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill insists "nuclear programs" is an
all-encompassing term that requires North Korea to provide data on
its nuclear weapons. North Korean Kim Gye-gwan disagrees, claiming
the North "can't declare nuclear weapons this year, because if we
do it at this stage, our nuclear weapons technology level will be
revealed." Such "interpretations" do not ease skeptics'
anxiety.
Recently suspicions about the firmness of U.S. resolve to confront
Pyongyang's abhorrent behavior heightened even more when the Bush
administration refused to address congressional concerns about
possible Korean initiatives in Syria. Were those Korean-assisted
nuclear facilities that Israel bombed there last month?
Perhaps seeking to dispel suspicions of softness, President Bush
has now asserted Pyongyang must disclose all of its past
proliferation activity in the declaration. Certainly this is not
spelled out in the agreement, but here's hoping we will hold North
Korea to this higher standard.
Verification, of course, is the key to ensuring Korean compliance.
Pyongyang's violation of four previous nuclear agreements and its
refusal to allow international inspectors to visit two suspect
sites in 1992 makes such a requirement inviolable. Quite simply,
without verification, there should be no agreement. That the United
States is preparing to accept a data declaration without first
insisting on an extensively detailed verification protocol is
extremely troubling.
U.S. National Technical Means, including imagery satellites, are
useful, but no substitute for on-site inspections. Classified
collection systems can alert us to suspicious activity, but
suspicions can only be conclusively resolved by inspectors on the
ground.
The U.S. could enter into arms control treaties with the Soviet
Union confidently only because Washington insisted on effective
verification. "Trust but verify" was the strategy then, and Bush
administration should accept nothing less now.
The agreements penned earlier this year don't contain the
provisions to ensure North Korea honors its pledge to denuclearize
fully. The U.S. must move quickly to insist on a clear delineation
of data and a vigorous verification regime before the data
declaration occurs. North Korea should be required to reveal the
number, type and location of its nuclear weapons; the extent of its
uranium-based nuclear weapons facilities and equipment; and its
nuclear proliferation activities with Syria, Iran, Libya and the
A.Q. Khan network.
An effective verification regime would include details such as the
annual number of inspections, the technical inspection equipment
allowed, and a requirement that inspectors be transported
expeditiously to desired sites. Most importantly, the United States
must get Pyongyang's commitment to allow short-notice "challenge"
inspections of suspect sites.
The Bush administration's coyness about possible Korean nuclear
cooperation with Syria raises suspicions it may be willing to
sacrifice principles and international treaty commitments to
maintain momentum in the Six-Party Talks. And in Asia, rumors that
Washington has promised to remove Pyongyang from the list of
terrorist states -- without first getting the promised resolution
of the Japanese abduction issue -- risks straining relations with a
key U.S. ally.
If the administration hopes to secure sufficient congressional and
public support to continue the nuclear negotiations, it should stop
stonewalling and provide an assessment of North Korea's nuclear and
missile proliferation in congressional hearings -- both open and
closed. And in future negotiations with North Korea, the U.S. must
insist upon text that clearly (1) delineates the requirements
placed on all sides and (2) defines the linkage between the
denuclearization steps to be taken by North Korea and the economic
and diplomatic benefits it will reap in return.
The Six-Party process to "denuclearize" North Korea cannot
succeed, and will fuel only more skepticism and discord, until such
time as both Pyongyang and Washington are more forthcoming in their
actions and more precise in their words.
Bruce Klingner is
senior research fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies
Center at the Heritage Foundation (heritage.org).
First appeared in the Washington Times