A family moves into a big, expensive house that Mom and Dad
couldn't resist. It's soon obvious, though, that after groceries,
utilities, gasoline and other necessities, there's not nearly
enough money left to pay the monthly mortgage.
Should Mom and Dad send their kids out to get jobs to pay for the
loan? Well, they could. But the better answer is for the family to
wake up, admit it's overextended and move to a more modest house
with a lower, affordable mortgage.
This is what we as a nation must do. We have to admit we've
overextended ourselves with the generous federal entitlement
programs for retirement - Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid -
and recklessly overcommitted our children to pay for them. We have
to seek fair, reasonable ways out.
I got that message loud and clear recently at a town hall meeting
at Drake University in Des Moines, where I helped present some very
inconvenient truths. Baby boomers like me essentially have voted
ourselves gold-plated retirement benefits that aren't paid for. The
result is trillions in debt for future generations to pay
off.
In Des Moines, I heard audience members say they're ready to talk
about tough choices to prevent the catastrophic wave of spending
from drowning future generations in bills they can't afford. And I
heard them say they expect the president and Congress to consider
and make those decisions in a bipartisan way.
So it's encouraging that President Bush's proposed budget takes a
serious first run at tackling Medicare's huge unfunded obligations.
His plan, if implemented, would steer the nation onto a more
responsible course and slow runaway Medicare spending by requiring
well-off retirees gradually to pay more realistic premiums for
prescription drugs and doctor visits.
Through this and other steps, the president would reduce the
Medicare tab charged to our kids and grandkids by an estimated $8
trillion - one-quarter of the $32 trillion projected funding
gap.
Under the president's plan, retirees with an annual income of at
least $80,000 (or $160,000 per couple) wouldn't be allowed, in
effect, to charge 75 percent of their drug costs and have the
pharmacy bill their kids and grandkids. He proposes that these
wealthier retirees pay a bit more than the 25 percent of the
cost.
Some skeptics call this unfair to seniors, as if Bill Gates needs
his drug subsidy.
The Des Moines meeting was one of 18 stops over the past year in a
"Fiscal Wake-Up Tour" organized by the Concord Coalition. Our
touring group includes U.S. Comptroller General David Walker as
well as representatives of Brookings Institution and The Heritage
Foundation. We span the policy landscape and often disagree on
exactly what should be done. But we agree on the problem and the
options.
Anticipating success in balancing the budget in five years, which
grabs so much attention nowadays, is like planning for a beach
party while ignoring the tsunami on the horizon. That tsunami is
the surge of entitlement spending as more of the 77 million baby
boomers retire. By 2050, this spending will eat up all revenues -
forget about paying for defense, homeland security and other
services - unless we sharply raise federal taxes from their
historical level of just over 18 percent of Gross Domestic
Product.
Some are tempted, but we can't simply enact huge tax increases.
Federal taxes already are projected to climb to the highest-ever
mark as a percentage of GDP over the next 15 years. Raising taxes
even faster risks slowing economic growth.
We've got to look hard instead at the promises we made to
ourselves and make prudent and reasonable changes. I sense that
more and more Americans are ready to tell that to their elected
representatives - and to the men and women who would be
president.
Stuart M. Butler,
Ph.D., is Vice President for Domestic and
Economic Policy Studies, and Henry Aaron is a Senior Fellow at the
Brookings Institution.
First appeared in The Des Moines Register