With more than 50 killed and 700-plus
wounded, last week's horrific terrorist attacks in London serve as
a stark reminder that we have two enemies in the War on Terror: al
Qaeda - and complacency. I'm not suggesting that the plucky Brits
were complacent. They've been living with - and fighting -
terrorism (especially the IRA) much longer than we Yanks
have.
In fact, from 9/11 until last week, the Brits had been remarkably
successful - breaking up six al Qaeda terrorist plots before they
could be put into action.
But Thursday's attacks by the previously unknown "al Qaeda in
Europe" demonstrate that even a nation well prepared for - and
steeled by - terrorism can be bloodied badly by it. We'd better
take heed.
Since 9/11, al Qaeda has struck successfully in places such as
Bali, Indonesia (2002: 202 killed); Madrid (2004: 191 killed);
Hilla, Iraq (2005: 125 killed), and now London - nothing here in
America.
But make no mistake about it - the real brass ring for al Qaeda
remains nailing an American target like New York City -
again.
A July 7 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memo warned that al
Qaeda has wanted to duplicate a Madrid-style passenger train
bombing (10 backpack bombs on rush-hour trains) in the United
Kingdom or the United States. After last week's attack, that leaves
us.
Think about it: More than 7 million tristate commuters hop on
buses, trains and subways in the metro area each day. That's three
times London's daily passenger load - talk about a target-rich
environment.
But likely al Qaeda terrorist scenarios aren't limited to bombing
or derailing trains, according to DHS's Joint Information Bulletin.
Despite the up-tick in airport security, al Qaeda remains keen on
attacking aviation.
Their options extend beyond a 9/11-style attack in which operatives
seize planes and turn them into veritable cruise missiles.
Alternatives include planting operatives in flight-operations
areas, where they can load explosives disguised as "seemingly
innocuous items" onto aircraft.
Buildings are also on al Qaeda's target list, warns DHS. One
scenario involves "renting several rooms in a targeted building,"
filling them with natural gas, and exploding them BY using a timer
placed on the ceiling.
DHS is also concerned about tanker trucks carrying flammable
liquids. Imagine the effect of a thermal fireball caused by a
tanker explosion in the Midtown or Holland Tunnel.
What the homeland-security report doesn't mention is a possible
attack here with a non-conventional weapon, such as a nuclear or
radiological "dirty" bomb.
If detonated on Wall Street, even the less powerful dirty bomb
(which disperses nuclear material using a conventional explosion)
could leave blocks of the financial district completely
uninhabitable until the radioactive buildings are carted
away.
The memo's silence on this possibility is understandable - happily,
chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons are still
tough to acquire.
It's much easier to lay one's hands on (and work with) conventional
explosives. But, as demonstrated so painfully in London - and Iraq
- these old-fashioned weapons can be used with deadly
efficiency.
The good news is that the July 7 memo concludes - and DHS
reconfirmed over the weekend - that there is "no specific credible
information to indicate that an attack on the United States is
imminent." Nor does DHS believe that al Qaeda terrorists are now in
the United States to conduct a strike.
The bad news is that ongoing intelligence indicates that al Qaeda
remains intent on attacking America directly. And the fact is,
neither we nor the British had any warning of Thursday's
attacks.
Was this a 9/11-like intelligence failure on the part of Britain's
highly-competent security services, or is al Qaeda getting better
at its terrorist tradecraft?
We may not know that answer for quite some time, as the British
authorities investigate the tragic event and hunt down the killers.
Unfortunately, it might be the latter. (Also in the mix: The chance
that, despite the name, this group is homegrown, with no real
connection to Osama's boys.)
Despite robust counterterrorism efforts across the globe over the
last four years, al Qaeda is still finding ways to lash out and
kill innocent civilians.
We can only conclude that they're adapting to new anti-terrorism
initiatives, perhaps even becoming more skilled at their terrorist
black arts, especially in terms of operations and communications
security.
For example, the terrorists aren't using intercept-vulnerable
phones to communicate, but instead rely on couriers and the
Internet to coordinate attacks - once again highlighting the
importance of human intelligence.
We're facing a tougher enemy; we can't let our guard down - or stop
pressing toward victory in the War on Terror - even for a
second.
Peter Brookes is Heritage Foundation senior fellow.
First appeared in The New York Post