Despite worldwide calls for restraint, North Korea chose to honor July 4 by going ballistic, launching seven missiles of various ranges into the Sea of Japan. It was a classic moment out of "Fatal Attraction" - a Glenn Close "I will not be ignored!" scream.
Without question, this provocation will turn out to be a
complete loser for Pyongyang.
For starters, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il looks foolish - his
top o' the line intercontinental ballistic missile, the
Taepodong-2, went pfhhtttt! splash! after flying only 40 seconds.
(Believe you me, someone is going to be spending serious time
cooling their heels in a North Korean political prison camp after
making the "Dear Leader's" fireworks look like sparklers . . .
)
Moreover, the launch, coming after weeks of threats and demands,
will lead to broad international condemnation and further
political/economic isolation for North Korea. That will include
more economic sanctions - something that its crippled economy and
suffering people can ill afford.
And the Taepodong-2 failure (after a seven-year, self-imposed
moratorium on ballistic-missile launches) makes Pyongyang look
quite impotent as a long-range nuclear threat to the United States,
significantly undermining its periodic bouts of
brinksmanship.
The other bad news for Pyongyang is that the missile malfunction
will make other potential buyers (most importantly Iran) think
twice about adding the North Korean ICBM to their arsenals.
(Obviously, this is great news for us.)
North Korea's hapless missile salvo also alienated its biggest
benefactors, most notably China and South Korea. The blatant
disregard for the wishes of neighboring Beijing and Seoul to not
unsettle things is likely to bring real pain for Pyongyang.
Take China. As Pyongyang's largest aid donor (and host of the
Six-Party Talks aimed at addressing North Korea's nukes), Beijing
called for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table and forgo
the missile launches - to no avail.
As the country with the most influence in North Korea, China, the
new diplomatic big dog on the block, isn't happy by the prospect of
being publicly "dissed" by puny Pyongyang.
China still won't come down too hard on its communist country
cousin. But Beijing will show some pique, at least - by giving some
private diplomatic warnings, and perhaps temporarily reducing the
shipment of fuel oil and other economic aid to Pyongyang.
North Korea has embarrassed South Korea as well. Seoul has been
overly generous - arguably to a fault - with its northern neighbor,
funneling billions in economic/humanitarian aid to Pyongyang in a
bid to facilitate reconciliation/reunification. Seoul now has
little choice politically, considering its missile launch warnings,
but to put off increased cross-DMZ economic ties (including
railroad crossings, rice/fertilizer donations and business activity
at the North's Kaesong industrial park).
Others aren't happy, either. Some of the North Korean missiles
broached Japanese waters, falling within Japan's 200-mile Exclusive
Economic Zone. And if the Taepodong-2 hadn't been a dud, it
certainly would've passed over Japan en route to its target:
us.
Tokyo is likely to restrict trade with Pyongyang, including port
calls by North Korean ships. More painful, though, will be Tokyo's
restrictions on money transfers and visits to North Korea by
Pyongyang's supporters in Japan (known as the Chosen Soren - "Red
Korea").
Without question, Tokyo will also take measures to protect itself
from the menacing Pyongyang. Japan will further embrace missile
defense, including the deployment of U.S. Patriot missiles in
Japan, as well as boosting its defense-modernization program.
For Washington, North Korea's latest provocation is proof positive
of the need for missile defense to protect the homeland and our
troops overseas. Thankfully, we've already established a base-line
missile-defense architecture to do just that.
Leaving our troops and cities deliberately vulnerable to the
maniacal missile machinations of the likes of Kim Jong Il -
especially missiles mated with nuclear, chemical or biological
warheads - is out-and-out crazy.
And don't forget about Iran. Tehran is watching the to-ing and
fro-ing with keen interest, contemplating its next move. If North
Korea's provocation pays dividends, Iran will be all the more
likely to indulge in defiance and risky behavior with its nuclear
program.
Multilateral diplomacy, military deterrence and economic
isolation are the way to go for the moment. But pressuring North
Korea's supporters, especially China, to walk petulant Pyongyang
back from the nuclear - and ballistic-missile - abyss is key.
Peter
Brookes, a senior fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, is the author of "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD
and Rogue States."
First appeared in the New York Post