There are plenty of lessons we
can learn from the 9/11 Commission report. But perhaps the most
important is that serious threats don't appear overnight -- they
grow over time. And our ability to respond must change and grow as
well.
For example, al Qaeda started planning for 9/11 in late 1998 and
early 1999. In theory, the attacks could have been prevented at
many points if we had taken aggressive action. But we never
did.
Today, another long-term threat is growing: North Korea is doing
everything it can to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles.
South Korean media reports indicate that North Korea is testing a
land-based missile that could travel up to 3,700 miles. That would
put parts of Alaska at risk. Unfortunately, there's more.
The authoritative journal Jane's Defense Weekly recently
reported that the North Koreans also have acquired a dozen
decommissioned Soviet submarines -- complete with sea-based missile
systems. Those weapons "would fundamentally alter the missile
threat posed by the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea)
and could finally provide its leadership with something that it has
long sought to obtain -- the ability to directly threaten the
continental U.S.," the editors wrote.
Luckily, while this threat has been building, we haven't been
standing still.
On the diplomatic front, the U.S. has joined China, Japan, South
Korea, Russia and North Korea for several rounds of negotiations.
These "six-party talks" are aimed at finding a peaceful way to
convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions.
But more importantly, we're also taking military action. After
decades of argument and political infighting, we're finally
building a missile defense system.
Last month, the first ground-based missile interceptor was
installed at Fort Greely, Alaska. As many as five more will be in
place by year's end. But that's not the end of the process. It is,
as Winston Churchill might have said, merely the end of the
beginning of the process.
The ground-based interceptors aim to blow up ballistic missiles
during the middle of their flight, before they start plunging
toward earth (their "terminal phase"). Soon the ground-based
weapons will be augmented by a number of sea-based rockets on navy
ships. That system is scheduled to be in place by the end of 2005.
These are both parts of a "layered" defense capability that will
eventually allow us to take several shots at destroying an incoming
ballistic missile.
But we can't stop here. Congress also should press ahead with
research into what's called "boost-phase" programs. These programs
aim to shoot down an enemy missile at the beginning of its flight,
rather than waiting until it's on the way back down. The boost
phase is generally the best time to attack a missile, because it's
moving fairly slowly and generating plenty of heat as it blasts
off.
Unfortunately, boost-phase research is likely to come under fire
because of a Congressional Budget Office report that an early
interceptor program may cost billions of dollars, in fact between $16 billion and
$78 billion.
But Heritage Foundation expert Baker Spring says that estimate
includes the entire 20-year cost to procure and operate boost-phase
systems. Boost-phase research is still in early development, far
behind later-stage missile defense, and preliminary testing will
cost far less. For example, five years ago The Heritage
Foundation's Commission on Missile Defense presented a plan to
begin fielding space-based interceptors for about $5 billion.
The final price tag is impossible to predict yet. But because of
the importance and promise of boost-phase defenses, we should press
ahead with the tests and see how effective the program is. That way
Congress will be able to determine if the technology merits greater
investment over the long term.
The Bush administration is building a layered missile-defense
system that will help protect us from the threats of the 21st
century. Those threats will grow stronger over time. But as long as
we keep developing our missile defenses, we'll be able to respond
effectively.
Ed Feulner is president of The Heritage Foundation (heritage.org), a Washington-based public policy research institute.