With Washington embroiled in battles over the president's
proposed Department of Homeland Security and corporate America's
scandalous misdeeds, it caused hardly a blip on the capital's radar
screen when the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty expired last
month. There were a few celebrations among the treaty's critics,
but its supporters were remarkably silent.
The Russian government pragmatically realized that fighting for
the ABM Treaty was a losing battle, so it decided instead to
extract whatever advantages it could in return for its
acquiescence. As the Russian opposition collapsed, so, more or
less, did that of European politicians and Democrats, who had
predicted dire consequences because of the Bush administration's
actions.
But the extraordinary lack of controversy belies the importance of
June 13. The United States is now freed from any constraints on
efforts to build an effective missile defense. Such constraints,
enshrined in the ABM Treaty, had been accepted by the Clinton
administration as unending. During the 1990s, this policy prevented
the United States from protecting itself against the growing threat
of ballistic missile proliferation among the rogue nations of the
world-and non-rogue nations too, for that matter.
No one who attended a recent conference on the issue, organized by
The Heritage Foundation and the McCormick Tribune Foundation, could
come away without a sense of the tremendous number of threats that
could face the United States. Fortunately, we now have the
possibility for a measure of protection-if President Bush chooses
to pursue it.
Conference speakers revealed in disturbing detail how far the
proliferation of missile technology has gotten out of hand. More
and more advanced missile technology is spreading from "Axis of
Evil" countries, primarily North Korea, whose three-stage Taepo
Dong intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be able to
reach parts of the United States. Another equally troubling and
even more difficult threat to anticipate is represented by cruise
missiles or unmanned armed vehicles (UAVs), which are widespread
and which could fall into terrorist hands. Any one of these hitting
the U.S. homeland armed with a nuclear, biological or chemical
warhead would be horrendous. By one estimate, a nuclear surface
burst hitting St. Louis would kill almost 9,000 people on impact
and another 51,000 from radiation.
Worrisome as the number of nightmare scenarios is, it should be
obvious that we must protect the United States and its allies
against the dangers we can counter. While low-flying cruise
missiles will be difficult to intercept, the ballistic missile
threat is one we can handle. The shame is that we are looking at a
wasted decade in the 1990s where the Reagan/Bush missile defense
programs were abandoned in favor of conventional arms
control.
The missile-defense program that was finally started in the late
1990s, and inherited by the second Bush administration, is a
limited combination of sea- and land-based interceptors. It will be
far from adequate, according to the experts meeting at the
McCormick Foundation's Cantigny estate outside Chicago. This,
despite the fact that the Bush administration is proposing to
increase spending on research, development and testing by 70
percent ($30 billion was spent between 1993 and 2000).
A big difference between the "hand-me-down" Clinton Ballistic
Missile Defense, the program inherited by the current Bush
administration and the missile-defense systems pursued by Ronald
Reagan and the first President Bush is that the Clinton program was
planned to be deployed in compliance with the ABM Treaty; the
others were not. The Clinton BMD plan was not designed to defend
against Russia's nuclear arsenal; the Reagan/Bush programs were
designed to withstand the heaviest possible attacks.
An effective system of missile defense has to include space-based
interceptors, which is the only comprehensive way to shoot down
missiles in their boost phase as well as in mid-flight. That means
going back to the concepts of the Reagan Strategic Defense
Initiative and the first Bush administration's "brilliant pebbles"
blueprint. That idea still causes much heartburn among the Russians
and Chinese-not to mention various domestic opponents of the
"militarization of space."
But space already was militarized when the Soviets tested their
first ICBM a half-century ago. By placing our defensive weapons
there, we would only be following their lead.
Helle Daleis deputy director of the Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based public policy research institute.
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