At the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan, attendees are full of dire predictions that the world’s climate will worsen under President-elect Trump. But when Trump fulfills his campaign promises to increase U.S. oil and gas production and removes President Biden’s pause on new liquid natural gas exports, global emissions will likely decline rather than rise.
This is because exports of U.S. natural gas generally displace coal, reducing global CO2 emissions. Even Germany, Europe’s largest manufacturer, is using lignite coal (rather than the less-polluting bituminous coal) to deal with shortages of renewables now that it has closed its nuclear power plants and Russian gas is no longer available.
About 3 billion people in emerging economies lack electricity and running water, and cook over wood and dung. Natural gas power plants would reduce particulates from wood and dung and make the air cleaner. Under President Biden, the World Bank does not make loans for fossil fuel power plants.
More U.S. gas for export will lower prices of Russian and Qatari gas, harming countries that are invading Ukraine and tied to Iran. Prices are set based on future production, and even announcements of energy production will weaken America’s enemies.
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Natural gas production has lowered U.S. emissions of CO2, which have declined by a billion metric tons over the past 16 years as natural gas has substituted for coal use in the generation of electricity. Over the same period, CO2 emissions in China have risen by 5 billion metric tons.
Between 2022 and 2023 U.S. coal exports to Europe increased by 22% compared with the prior year. Because coal has more emissions than natural gas, it is surprising that Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has not asked for a pause in coal exports, only on natural gas exports.
America’s natural gas exports to Europe have been soaring since 2022, when Russia decreased the flow of natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration, America exported an average of almost 12 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2023, more than any other country.
Europe is America’s biggest customer, and in a phone call to President-elect Trump, European Union President Ursula von der Leyen suggested that U.S. natural gas could replace Russian gas.
But even if America stopped all use of fossil fuels immediately, global temperatures would only be two-tenths of 1 degree Celsius by the year 2100, according to government models. This is because China, India, Africa, and Latin America are ramping up their use of coal to reach Western standards of living. China is home to large supplies of coal, but little natural gas, and uses its domestic coal supplies for generating electricity to power its global manufacturing capacity.
A second Trump administration will not only encourage production of natural gas but also faster permitting of pipelines and LNG terminals to move the natural gas from the interior of the country to the ports, and into export terminals to be shipped to Europe and Asia.
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America’s natural gas production, at over 100 billion cubic feet per day, is greater than pre-pandemic levels, but production is primarily on private lands. It could have been even higher if Biden had not restricted leases on federal land and if pipeline approval were faster.
Trump’s energy plan includes permitting reform, allowing different sources of energy to compete on a level playing field, opening more lands to natural gas development, reversing Biden’s climate agenda, expediting nuclear technology, and protecting the energy grid.
Trump, unlike Biden, will not instruct the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to slow down pipeline and liquid natural gas export terminal construction in the name of a transition to renewables. Nor will Trump instruct the Securities and Exchange Commission to discourage investment in pipelines, or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to discourage loans for fossil fuel projects.
The more natural gas is exported, the lower are global emissions. With Trump’s changes, natural gas will be able to travel to where it is needed due to faster infrastructure permitting.
As the northern hemisphere moves into its winter season, the need for more energy for warming homes and businesses becomes even more pressing, and natural gas is cleaner than coal. COP29 attendees have no reason to demonize Trump’s energy agenda, which will be a boon to the environment.
This piece originally appeared in RealClear Energy
