Under any set of circumstances, Hurricane Katrina would have had
a noticeable impact at the pump. However, by hitting America's
single largest oil and refining region at a time of already-tight
supplies and the high prices, the effects have been amplified. Of
course, weather-induced damage to energy infrastructure is
unavoidable, but Katrina's impact on oil and refined products did
not have to be so severe, and there are lessons to be learned for
the energy debate to come.
Putting aside for a moment the far more important human toll, from
an energy standpoint Katrina hit in the worst possible place. With
approximately 25 percent of the nation's oil production and 16
percent of refining capacity in the Gulf region, the hurricane's
impact will be felt nationally, at least for a month or two, and
quite possibly longer. But both these percentages could have and
should have been lower.
As regards oil, the Western Gulf of Mexico stands out not as
America's only offshore area with oil, but the only offshore area
that doesn't face severe federal limits on drilling. There is oil
and natural gas in the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf (which
was not as badly impacted by this particular hurricane), but these
areas are subject to federal moratoria restricting drilling. Alaska
also has significant oil reserves, both on and offshore, but
portions of them, including the estimated 10 billion barrels
located on a small part of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
(ANWR), are currently subject to restrictions as well.
If America was to make more sensible use of this oil, there would
be greater production overall, a lower price (how much lower is
subject to debate), and less vulnerability should any one region
suffer a natural disaster. Instead of 25% of the nation's domestic
oil production, Katrina could have jeopardized only 20 or 15 or
less, and the effect would not have been so bad.
A similar story applies to refining capacity. Due in part to costly
federal regulations, along with non-regulatory factors, refinery
capacity in the US is very tight. No new refinery has been built
since 1976, though investors in a proposed new facility in the
Southwest are currently navigating through the years-long approval
process. Capacity expansions at existing refineries have struggled
to keep pace with increasing demand, and face a large and
still-growing list of regulatory requirements. Some in industry say
that the billions spent on regulatory compliance have diverted
resources that would have otherwise been spent on additional
expansions. A wave of federal lawsuits launched at the end of the
Clinton administration alleging that many refinery expansions were
illegal has not helped matters either.
Even under ideal conditions, the nation's refineries are barely
adequate to meet demand. Producing enough motor fuels is
particularly precarious during the summer, when demand is at its
highest and several challenging summer-grade fuel requirements are
in effect. In fact, in the weeks before Katrina hit, some
relatively minor instances of unexpected downtime at a few US
refiners were more than enough to cause noticeable bump ups in the
price of both oil and finished products.
Thus, on top of an already precarious situation, numerous
Louisiana refineries have now been damaged or lack electricity, and
others are without immediate access to crude or are unable to ship
finished product to market. This is likely to result in all-time
record prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the weeks ahead. Had
there been more refinery capacity across the nation, Katrina's
effect on fuel supplies would have likely been smaller, shorter in
duration, and less widespread.
Usually upon passing energy legislation, as it did last month,
Washington ignores energy issues for years thereafter -- and some
consider this a good thing. This time, however, will be very
different, as energy and especially gasoline prices will continue
to be a high priority item when Congress returns after Labor Day.
The debate will pick up where the Energy Policy Act of 2005 left
off.
Unfortunately, this energy law contains nothing that will help in
the short term, and only a little that might prove of benefit over
the long term. But it does have a few measures that may serve as
useful first steps.
In particular, though the law does not change any existing
offshore drilling restrictions, it did authorize the first-ever
inventory of offshore energy resources using state-of-the-art
exploration techniques. Industry sources believe (and anti-drilling
activists who opposed the inventory probably fear) that we may
discover considerably more oil and natural gas off our coasts than
is currently believed to exist. This information could and should
lead to a serious debate over whether the restrictions should be
lifted.
One good piece of news is that the ANWR drilling is likely to be
approved, as part of the budget process rather than in the energy
law.
The new energy law also contains limited provisions encouraging
refinery expansions and streamlining the gasoline regulations that
make it harder to produce the various fuel formulations required by
law, but these measures could be expanded. On the latter point, the
EPA recently announced that it is temporarily waiving a few
problematic gasoline and diesel regulations. This should make it
easier to produce and supply fuel, especially in the hardest hit
areas. If this works, Congress should consider permanent ways to
simplify the current maze of gasoline and diesel
specifications.
Hurricane Katrina struck us at the worst place and time and
revealed the vulnerability of the nation's energy infrastructure.
It should underscore the need to strengthen the resiliency of a
system that is barely adequate even under the best of
circumstances.
Ben Lieberman is Senior Policy Analyst
in The Roe Institute at the Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in Tech Central Station