Last Friday and Saturday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
and Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Moscow. They met with
President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and First
Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov, for what are known as the "2 +
2 talks." These were agreed upon in Kennebunkport, Maine, between
Presidents George W. Bush and Mr. Putin. The Moscow talks did not
go well.
Before the talks started, Mr. Putin made Miss Rice and Mr. Gates
wait for him for 40 minutes - a deliberate diplomatic slight.
Greeting the two senior U.S. Cabinet members in front of TV
cameras, Mr. Putin came out adamantly against deployment of the
U.S. component of the global ballistic missile defense in Poland
and the Czech Republic.
"The one thing on which I would like to focus attention is that in
the process of these difficult negotiations we hope that you will
not force through previous agreements with eastern European
countries," the ITAR-TASS news agency quoted Mr. Putin as
saying.
As Miss Rice and Mr. Gates were visiting Moscow, the Russian
capital was in the midst of two overlapping political games: the
overt Duma and presidential election cycle of December 2007-March
2008, and the mostly covert power struggle between competing
pro-Putin factions over the architecture of the next Russian
regime.
In it, competing factions such as the Russian Federal Security
Service and the Anti-Narcotics Committee - both headed by Mr.
Putin's loyalists - are lobbing op-eds at each other, but, more
significantly, arresting each other's senior officers and
generals.
At stake is not just power, but control of tens of billions of
dollars in property and state-owned enterprises, including oil,
gas, other commodities, weapons, shipping, autos and aerospace
industries.
Every move the Putin administration makes today is dictated by the
desire to shape Russia's future internal power structure and to set
the course for the country's foreign and security affairs in
general, and its relationship with the United States in particular
for years to come.
Keeping the relationship with Washington on the verge of a crisis
and inventing an imaginary "American enemy" is creating much needed
legitimacy for the current Russian leadership, which now has only
Mr. Putin's personal popularity as its political base.
The image of Russia surrounded by enemies is absolutely necessary
for today's Russian ruling class of senior secret police officers,
as it positions them in the eyes of the people as the saviors and
defenders of Mother Russia.
This approach has venerable roots in Russian history, hearkening
back to the Romanov police state of the 19th and early 20th
centuries or even Ivan the Terrible's rule of the late 16th
century.
By trying to prevent bilateral security arrangements between the
United States and Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia is
reasserting its veto power in its former Eastern European empire.
"We are fighting American imperialism," Russian security expert
Alexander Pikayev told this author during a BBC debate on
Friday.
Mr. Putin has threatened to pull Russia out of the Intermediate
Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by President Ronald Reagan and former
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, that eliminated the Russian
SS-20 missiles and U.S. Pershing-2 missiles deployed in
Europe.
This chilling rhetoric has quickly acquired specific military
target sets. Before the June G-8 summit in Heiligendamm, Germany,
Mr. Putin issued an unprecedented threat to retarget Russia's
nuclear missiles at Europe in response to potential future
deployment of missile defenses there.
Russia has also threatened to pull out of the Conventional Forces
in Europe (CFE) Treaty, which limits its troop levels between the
Baltic and the Black Seas. Russia claims NATO members do not abide
by or did not ratify the CFE Treaty. Russia may also be reluctant
to extend the START-2 and the accompanying Moscow Treaty past 2009,
the two agreements which limit strategic nuclear weapons .
By destroying the European security treaties regime, Mr. Putin is
returning to the Soviet strategic posture that predated the
Reagan-Gorbachev era in which the Cold War was ended. He also
undoes the achievements of U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and
Bill Clinton, and Mr. Yeltsin's own predecessor, Boris
Yeltsin.
But Russian ambitions go beyond missiles. At the St. Petersburg
Economic Summit in June, Mr. Putin suddenly called for revising the
global economic architecture, including the World Trade
Organization (WTO). This unprecedented initiative reflects Moscow's
current anti-status quo mindset.
The deteriorating trajectory of U.S.-Russian relations may allow
the Kremlin to retaliate further. Russia - and possibly China -
could bolster Iran's stalling tactics. The U.S.-European coalition
has demanded, through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
and the U.N. Security Council, intrusive verification and
inspections of Iran's sprawling nuclear complex.
Russia may enable the Islamic Republic to acquire nuclear weapons
and the platforms to deliver them, with far-reaching destabilizing
consequences for Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Sunni-Shia relations and
vital U.S. interests in the region as well as the security,
including the survival, of Israel. The crisis with Russia may also
lead to more Russian arms supplies to Syria, another principal
Middle East adversary of the United States.
Finally, the Moscow fiasco occurred before the Annapolis
conference on the Middle East peace, which will attempt to find a
solution to the century-old conflict between Arabs and Israelis.
Russia, a member of the Quartet, is a key player in the Middle
East.
The United States is also concerned about destabilizing Russian
arms sales to Iran and Syria. The Russians know how to play well
the game of spoiler.
The old Soviet obsession - that Russia's fate, its cosmic goal, is
to fight "American imperialism" - remains undiluted, even 15 years
after the collapse of communism. This is tragic - for Russia,
Europe and the world.
Ariel Cohen is senior
research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and senior adviser to
the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council.
First appeared in the Washington Times