With friends like these, who needs enemies? This thought might
well have presented itself to President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia in
the last few days, as he watched the recently negotiated free trade
agreement with the United States fall victim to American election
politics. In a hemisphere where strongman politics and
authoritarian rule are tenaciously making a comeback, the
leadership of the Democratic Party has just inflicted a severe blow
on the reputation of the United States as a reliable international
partner and on U.S. trade policy as a whole.
How does the U.S. presidential election figure into the equation
of free trade with Colombia? It appears that congressional
Democrats are fearful of offending: 1) their two presidential
candidates, both of whom are now actively campaigning on anti-free
trade platforms and 2) their constituencies among the U.S. trade
unions. Once the election is over, some have suggested, House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi might overcome her problems with the Colombian
accord and allow Congress to vote in the lame-duck session
following the election.
This would be an extraordinarily cynical, high-stakes gamble. The
danger would be that were it to fail, the consequences could well
be that the next U.S. administration would not have time to take up
the Colombia trade deal in its first year in office (were the next
White House inclined to pursue free trade agreements at all), and
Colombia would probably go into its next presidential election in
2010 without an agreement with the United States.
What specifically happened is that the Colombian free trade
agreement was negotiated under the terms of Trade Promotion
Authority, which provided for an up-or-down vote on trade
agreements without the potential for amendments. The TPA has now
expired, but one of its provisions was that the House and the
Senate must vote on an agreement within 90 days of it signing. On
April 10, Mrs. Pelosi, however, introduced a procedural change to
House rules that circumvented the 90-day provision, thus leaving
open the trade agreement to the slings and arrows of special
interests and their friends in Congress who do not favor free
trade.
Their ostensible reasons hark back to Colombia's troubled past,
but do not stand up to scrutiny today. Opponents of the free trade
agreement cite Colombia's violence by right-wing militias and
murders of trade union activists. The AFL-CIO cites 2,500 murders
of trade unionists since 1986, but fails to recognize that the vast
majority happened before 2001 the year before when Mr. Uribe came
to power. By 2003, the number of murders had come down to 100 and
has been in decline since then. Last year the number was 26.
The security issues that could be affected by the failure of a
trade agreement are wide-ranging. Proliferation through Iran is a
persistent concern throughout the region, as is arms smuggling and
trafficking in people. Narcotrafficking remains a constant battle
in Colombia. And poverty makes large populations vulnerable to
disasters.
With a failed trade agreement as a festering problem and a public
diplomacy disaster, political relations suffer between the United
States and Colombia, making cooperation on security more difficult.
A successful agreement on the other hand would mean a stronger
Colombian economy, fortified by growing revenues from trade, which
will better be able to cope with the country's many security
challenges, even when money for Plan Colombia has dried up. In
other words, trade undergirds defense.
And of course there is always the troublemaker Venezuelan
strongman Hugo Chavez, who constantly seeks ways of inserting
himself in other countries' business, last fall trying
(unsuccessfully) to appear as a "mediator" between the Colombian
government and the FARC terrorists. He has been joined by Daniel
Ortega in Nicaragua and Rafael Correa in Ecuador and the Kirchners
in Argentina in fomenting populism through the region.
President Bush has actually quietly assembled a solid record of
trade relations with Latin America with a free trade accord with
Chile and Peru, as well as the Central American Free Trade
Agreement. The Bush administration has also, through Plan Colombia,
supported Mr. Uribe's fight against the FARC and the narcoterrorism
that has been a blight on Colombia. A Colombian free trade
agreement would be a crowning achievement.
Abroad, however, the rap on the Bush administration has unfairly
been that it has been unilateralist and high-handed in its dealings
with our friends abroad. But look who is fitting that description
today.
Helle Dale is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in the Washington Times