Senators like to think of themselves as members of "the
world's greatest deliberative body" -- where lawmakers subject
every aspect of major legislation to withering scrutiny before
allowing it to come for a final vote. However, particularly intense
political pressure often turns important bills into legislative
freight trains, where analysis and reflection give way to rash
judgments.
Describing the legislative frenzy known as "The Hundred Days,"
during which President Franklin D. Roosevelt won congressional
approval for his historic New Deal agenda, one senator observed
ruefully that Congress "counted deuces as aces, reasoned from
non-existent premises and, at times, we seemed to accept chimeras,
fantasies and exploded social and economic theories as our
authentic guides."
Little has changed. This week the Senate may gives its approval to
another historic legislative proposal -- a massive rewrite of our
immigration laws. The 614-page bill has received neither a public
hearing nor any other form of scrutiny from the Senate Judiciary
Committee. According to Sen. Jeff Sessions (R.-Ala.), a committee
member, his colleagues are "blissfully ignorant of the scope and
impact of the legislation."
Remarkably, until last week, no one had bothered to conduct a
serious section-by-section review of the bill to calculate just how
many additional legal immigrants would be allowed to settle in the
U.S. and embark on the path to citizenship. Nor did anyone examine
the potential fiscal effects of this complex web of highly
technical provisions.
To be fair, over the last two years Senate Judiciary Committee
Chairman, Arlen Specter (R.-Pa.), held many hearings on immigration
policy. Fifty expert witnesses appeared, addressing issues such as
the best way to end violence at the border, reduce
immigration-related litigation, secure the cooperation of other
nations, safeguard our national security, reform laws governing the
deportation of illegals, and so on.
Only two hearings examined the economic impact of immigration.
None examined the possible fiscal consequences or the potential
scale of future immigration, and what these consequences might mean
for our country.
So, this week senators embarked on one of the more intricate
legislative dances in recent years without knowing some of the most
basic steps. That they are likely to stumble goes without
saying.
Luckily, my colleague Robert Rector read the bill, asked those
basic questions, and ran the numbers. The Senate immigration plan,
he found, essentially creates an entitlement to citizenship. Tens
of millions of foreign citizens would qualify for the unilateral
right to come to America and apply for citizenship. (The precise
number, as of this writing, appears to have dropped considerably
from Rector's original estimate of 103 million to a "mere" 66
million over 20 years, thanks to the Senate's adoption of an
amendment by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D.-N.M.)) Because many would
likely be low-skilled high school dropouts who would work in
low-wage jobs, they can be expected to consume more in social
services than they pay in taxes. Rector characterizes this
possibility as "the largest expansion of the welfare state in 35
years."
Rector shows that immigrant households are already 50 percent more
likely than native-born households to use welfare. Immigrants
without a high-school degree are two-and-a-half times more likely
to use welfare. That means billions in additional spending on
programs such as Food Stamps, Medicaid and the Earned Income Tax
Credit. This is not your grandfather's welfare state.
The official congressional scorekeeper, the Congressional Budget
Office, reviewed the same provisions and arrived at a very
different conclusion. The immigration plan, it estimates, would
attract only 7.8 million additional immigrants over the next 10
years. If they were commodity traders, CBO's immigration experts
would surely sell the value of American citizenship short. How else
to explain its assumption that only a miniscule proportion of those
who would be eligible to come to America would actually do
so?
Those who regard the prospect of American citizenship as one of
life's most valuable commodities -- especially to citizens
languishing in impoverished countries where annual incomes are but
a fraction of ours -- believe that virtually all of those eligible
to become Americans would jump at the opportunity to do so. In
fact, recent polls in Nicaragua and Peru belie CBO's assumption.
Those polls found that 60 percent of Nicaraguans and 70 percent of
Peruvians would move to the U.S. if they could.
This is precisely the sort of debate that the "world's greatest
deliberative body" should have had long before now.
Mike Franc, who
has held a number of positions on Capitol Hill, is vice president
of Government Relations at The Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in Human Events Online