Al Qaeda's recent attacks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the
closure of the U.S. Embassy there, have exposed the weaknesses of
the kingdom's security apparatus. These developments also further
one of Osama bin Laden's goals - to drive the "infidels" from the
"Land of the Two Mosques" and topple the monarchy.
Clearly, the global economy and the United States are at risk. If
the Saudi regime falters, if the kingdom's vast oil infrastructure
is damaged, or if a prolonged civil war erupts, oil prices are
likely to skyrocket.
A deep economic recession would be triggered by the high cost of
energy, with devastating consequences, particularly in an election
season. The United States must draw the obvious conclusions and
take precautions, and it has to act now.
Thus far, Saudi security cooperation has been unimpressive. The
FBI investigation of the 1996 Khobar Towers attack by
Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah, which killed 19 U.S. servicemen, was
stalled by the Saudi Interior Ministry, requiring multiple
interventions by then-FBI Director Louis Freeh and phone calls from
President George H.W. Bush to Crown Prince Abdallah. This time, U.S
Deputy National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley's and U.S.
Ambassador Robert W. Jordan's desperate pleas for extra security
went unheeded, as was reported in the media. This must
change.
Oil is a highly emotional and political issue in the Middle East.
In many monarchies, state budgets are opaque, and the population
often has no idea how the petrodollars are spent. The opulent - and
sometimes distinctly "un-Islamic" - lifestyles of the rulers are
becoming increasingly unsustainable as the populations explode. It
is not just the welfare economics of the Middle Eastern
oil-producing states, but their demographics, corruption,
incompetence and democratic deficit that are undermining the
regimes' legitimacy. And there is more.
The oil bonanza funded the worldwide export of radical Wahhabi
Islam, the ideological breeding ground of al Qaeda and the Taliban,
over the last three decades. Government-sponsored foundations,
supervised by members of the Saudi royal family, fueled Jihad from
New York to Kabul, and from Miami to Manila, by funding
brainwashing for violence in Wahhabi academies (madrassahs), and
terrorism training under the guise of charity.
Hamas and Yasser Arafat's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which
undermined the Oslo process and now are busily blowing the roadmap
to bits with their weapon of choice - brainwashed Palestinian
suicide bombers - are partially funded through Saudi telethons and
hailed by preachers in Saudi government-supported mosques
worldwide.
The "root cause" of violence against the United States is not the
Arab-Israeli conflict, but the ideology of jihad against the West,
which exhorts the "faithful" to shed the blood of "infidels."
Israel is just a target of opportunity, a substitute for the Great
Satan. For Islamist radicals, born and bred in Arabia, however, it
is also quite permissible to murder "apostate" rulers, including
the Saudi royal family. Hence the attacks in Riyadh. The jihad
chickens have come home to roost.
Bin Laden understands both economics and the politics of
terrorism. He has proclaimed that if he takes over his native land,
he will drive oil to $125 a barrel, while his deputy, Ayman al
Zawahiri, stated that U.S. economic targets are high on al Qaeda's
hit list. In October 2002, the Limbourg, a French super-tanker, was
hit by a suicide Zodiac boat in the Persian Gulf - just as the USS
Cole was in 2000. And bin Laden's engineering and managerial skills
can conceivably suffice to stage a super-attack on the kingdom's
oil infrastructure, one that could neutralize Saudi Arabia's 2
million barrel a day surplus oil producing capacity, vital for
price stability.
The sand in the hourglass is running out for U.S. energy security
in the Persian Gulf. Bin Laden is riding high, claiming successes
in striking at the heart of the "infidels" in the United States;
taking credit for the announced withdrawal of U.S. troops from
Saudi bases; and now, shutting down the embassy. His allies are
striking almost daily from Morocco to Jerusalem. It is only a
matter of time before a blow comes against the oil fields - or
their Saudi royal guardians.
As Saudi oil is endangered, the United States needs to prepare
comprehensive military and energy responses. It is important to
diversify the U.S. supply, bringing more oil from such sources as
West Africa and Eurasia. The energy basket must be more diverse,
and should include more domestic oil and gas, coal, liquid natural
gas and renewables.
It is vital to "get Iraq right." Iraq has reserves second only to
those of Saudi Arabia - and a great need to rebuild after Saddam's
misrule and three wars. It needs law and order, and rapid economic
reform, including privatization and attraction of foreign
investment. Securing Iraq must also include deterring Iran from
destabilizing it.
The U.S. military must have contingency plans to rapidly secure
the Persian Gulf oil infrastructure if al Qaeda attempts to
severely disrupt it. Top U.S. policy-makers must ensure that the
intelligence community and law enforcement agencies receive full
cooperation from their Saudi colleagues in tracking down terrorist
organizations, their financiers and supporters.
Saudi Arabia must become a force for peace in the Middle East,
cutting funding to any and all jihad organizations around the
world. Most importantly, the kingdom must dismantle its homegrown
jihad infrastructure, with its anti-American clergy, anti-Western
academies and hostile state-run media. This apparatus breeds
terror, a terror that today threatens not just the United States
and the West, but the very survival of the Saudi regime and its
very blood - oil. President Bush said that Saudi Arabia is a
friend. Friends don't let friends commit suicide through
terrorism.
Ariel Cohen is a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. The views expressed here are his own.
Originally appeared in the Washington Times