Iran is becoming a foreign-policy problem of almost immeasurable
proportions - from its nuclear-weapons brinkmanship to its feverish
support of Islamic fundamentalism and international
terrorism.
But Tehran's most proximate - and often overlooked - threat to
American interests is its attempts to destabilize Iraq by
supporting and fomenting its own insurgency against Coalition and
Iraqi forces.
Tehran is seeking a hasty retreat by the United States and its
partners that will leave a political and security vacuum that Iran
can readily fill, dragging Iraq into its sphere of influence - or,
perhaps, carving off southern Iraq to create an Iranian "super
state."
Without question, Iranian encroachment on Iraq must be prevented
at all costs.
Some Middle East experts don't buy this take on Iran's involvement
in Iraq, especially its geopolitical intentions. Yet Tehran plainly
has every reason to want to see the U.S.-led Coalition in Iraq
fail.
First, since the 1979 revolution, the "Great Satan" has been
Iran's No. 1 enemy. The radical regime found it bad enough having
American forces in the region before the Afghan and Iraqi wars,
much less having 150,000 cranky, battle-hardened GIs right next
door.
Now, Tehran faces not only the prospects of (at least some)
American forces being stationed long-term in the theater, a
fundamental check on Iranian power, but also the possibility that
Iraq and Afghanistan could become strong U.S. allies.
Second, Iran's rulers are deathly afraid that the freedoms taking
root in Iraq/Afghanistan will highlight the Iranian revolution's
abject political, economic and social failures to Iran's
increasingly discontented "baby-boomers." Iran's people (60 percent
are under the age of 30, born after the revolution) will look more
and more at the political, economic and social freedoms enjoyed by
Iraqis and Afghans and ask: "Why not us?"
Third, Iran is a Shia Persian country in a tough Sunni Arab
neighborhood. Bringing southern Shia-majority Iraq under Iranian
influence - or, even, via secession from Iraq or civil war, Iranian
control - will neuter long-time enemy Iraq as a threat.
Absorbing southern Iraq would not only debilitate Baghdad by
cutting off access to Persian Gulf seaports, it would significantly
increase Iran's size, population and oil wealth, putting Tehran on
a trajectory to regional dominance.
Iran has been slipping clerics, intelligence agents and
paramilitary forces into Iraq and bankrolling sympathizers,
political parties and militants since the spring 2003 invasion to
bring Iraq under its sway - while doing its best to keep its
fingerprints off its dirty dealings.
But seeing Coalition forces facing a tough insurgency, Iran
evidently decided to seize the opportunity to advance its cause,
upping the ante by changing its tactics from garnering influence to
actively instigating insurgency against U.S.-Coalition forces -
even Iraqis who might stand in the way.
You want proof? Well, Coalition forces recently intercepted a
number of shipments of explosives being spirited across the border
from Iran to Iraq. Experts believe that a new, more lethal-type of
roadside bomb - capable of destroying armored vehicles - is based
on an Iranian design often used in the past by Hezbollah against
Israel.
Just last week, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, seemingly
choking off a desire to be more direct, said: "It is true that
weapons, clearly, unambiguously, from Iran have been found in
Iraq." Another senior officer claimed that the new bombs are, "the
most sophisticated and most lethal devices we've seen."
But it's more than just these new deadly explosives: The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps-directed component of the insurgency
probably consists of several hundred Iranians and Iraqis as well as
members of Lebanon's Iranian-backed, Shia terrorist group,
Hezbollah.
Some analysts believe the Iranian paramilitaries and
Iranian-supported militias are training insurgents in southern Iraq
as well as in Iran. In addition, it's likely that Iranian-led
insurgents are being prepped by Hezbollah guerillas in southern
Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.
Iranian behavior is increasingly troubling and problematic for
U.S. national security and regional interests - an Iranian-directed
insurgency in Iraq is just the latest example of Persian
perfidy.
It's time to stop handling Iran with kid gloves, especially while
Iranian hi-tech bombs deployed by Tehran-backed insurgents are
killing Coalition and Iraqi forces and civilians, encouraging civil
war and destabilizing the country.
It's time for an aggressive rollback strategy against the Iranian
regime - to address its drive for nuclear weapons, its sponsorship
of terror in Iraq and elsewhere, and its repressive rule at home.
The strategy should embrace biting economic sanctions, aggressive
covert action - and even surgical military strikes to protect
American and Coalition forces and interests.
Peter Brookes is
a Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director of the
Asian Studies Centre at The Heritage Foundation, and was former
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs
in the Office of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld from
2001-2002.
First appeared in the New York Post