Fireworks started yesterday as the U.N. Security Council met in emergency session to craft a resolution that would - among other issues - deploy a stabilization force to Lebanon to end the fighting between Israel and its terrorist nemesis, Hezbollah.
President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair firmly (and
rightly) insist that the cease-fire include Hezbollah's disarmament
(per Security Council Resolution 1559). They're absolutely right -
but getting a majority (and all the council's veto powers) to sign
off on that may be tough.
But even if the council's member can agree on a U.N. mandate,
getting together the right international force won't be easy.
Putting boots on the ground in Lebanon's wilderness of mirrors is a
roll of the political and military dice. The country's been a meat
grinder for peacekeepers before - and would likely be one
again.
World capitals get it. They're going to be extremely cautious about
sending troops into harm's way to deal with Hezbollah - and its
Syrian and Iranian backers - in southern Lebanon's chaos.
Depending on how much hurt Israel puts on the terrorists before an
international force hits the ground, the stabilization force might
face guerrilla warfare, improvised explosive devices, booby traps
and unmarked minefields.
Sure, France, Italy, Turkey and Norway have expressed an early
willingness to consider sending troops into Lebanon under the right
conditions - but no one is jumping up and down, hollering, "Ooh,
ooh, send me!"
The United States says it has no intention of participating in a
Lebanon stabilization force. We've already got our hands full in
Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in the War on Terror. We haven't
forgotten 1983, when a Hezbollah truck bomb killed 241 U.S. marines
and sailors, sleeping in their barracks, while on a peacekeeping
mission in Beirut.
Others have their own reasons to stay out - like Germany. Some
Germans have raised the possibility that descendants of Holocaust
perpetrators might end up pointing weapons at the Israeli
descendants of Holocaust victims. (German Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, on the other hand, says Berlin has a
responsibility, and must get involved, "given the difficult shared
history between Germany and Israel.")
Under which "banner" should a Lebanon stabilization force operate?
Paris is pushing for a U.N. force, not wanting to put French troops
under NATO command. (France pulled out of NATO's military structure
in the 1960s.)
But the Blue Beret-types are keeping the idea at arms' length. No
doubt the loss of four peacekeepers to an errant Israeli attack
last week is the proximate cause. But it could also be a sense that
the security environment in Lebanon will be anything but
"permissive."
It's likely to be more like "peace-making" or "peace-enforcing,"
rather than peacekeeping. Any force introduced into Lebanon will
clearly need to be "heavy," including combat troops, armor and air
power.
So what about NATO? While NATO has the "punch," it's stretched thin
with its new commitment in southern Afghanistan - indeed, member
nations like Britain are having trouble providing helicopters,
fixed-wing aircraft and armored vehicles for just that force, never
mind Lebanon.
So what's left? The most likely option is a "catch-as-catch-can"
multinational force that includes Arabs, Turks and others from
Europe and the Pacific, operating under a U.N. mandate and working
alongside the (currently feeble) Lebanese army to secure southern
Lebanon and parts of the Syrian border.
But, again, no international force should be deployed to Lebanon
until there are real prospects for - and progress in - disarming
Hezbollah's militia, and any other foreign forces (e.g.,
Iran/Syria) withdraw.
A cease-fire without Hezbollah laying down its arms will just allow
it to catch its breath, lick its wounds and re-supply. Hezbollah
only has to survive this conflict to claim victory, enhance its
standing and fill its coffers.
If you're going to send an international force into the crucible of
southern Lebanon, it's got to be more than a feel-good
public-relations exercise. Only "heavy hitters" need apply.
And unless you can get Hezbollah to disarm, you'll have achieved
nothing sustainable or of enduring value to peace and stability.
Indeed, you won't need peacekeepers - because there will be no
peace to keep.
Peter
Brookes, a senior fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, is the author of "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD
and Rogue States."
First appeared in the New York Post