In 2007, parts of Latin America continued to backslide toward leftist, authoritarian political rule. However, mixed into the record were many positive developments for democracy and free markets. The future of Latin America will have a great impact on the United States' economy, energy supply, and border security. Below is a list of 10 storylines that The Heritage Foundation would like to see take place in 2008-and the U.S. measures that can help them become a reality.
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's political
reversals of fortune continue. From the defeat of the
December 2 constitutional referendum to his failure to secure the
release of hostages being held in Colombia by the Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Chávez's once
sure-if-bearish grip on the region appears to be slipping. Many in
Latin America have begun to view him as a temperamental, disruptive
leader who happens to have lots of oil money. Hopefully, a new
sense of realism will prevail. In 2008, perhaps Chávez will
be called upon to render a true accounting for the more than $600
billion in oil revenues that has flooded Venezuela during his
eight-year rule. Then he should answer the following questions: Why
aren't the people of Venezuela better off? Why are crime,
corruption, inflation, and even food scarcities gnawing away at
Venezuelan society? Why is PDVSA falling behind other major world
oil companies? And just how much has Chávez given away-to
the Castro brothers and to Presidents Morales of Bolivia, Correa of
Ecuador, and Ortega of Nicaragua? And why was it important to send
bags of cash to Argentina on the eve of its presidential elections?
The Venezuelan people deserve answers-not evasions and
apologetics-to these troubling questions.
- Congress approves the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion
Agreement. Colombia would join Canada, Chile, Mexico,
Peru, the countries of Central America, and the Dominican Republic
as the latest U.S. trade and investment partner in the Western
Hemisphere to have its own TPA. This would strengthen Colombian
President Álvaro Uribe, a staunch ally of the United States
and supporter of market-based democracy. President Uribe has been
fighting with great courage and success since 2002 to build a more
democratic, stable, and prosperous Colombia. To bolster prosperity
and security for both the United States and Latin America (and to
counter Hugo Chávez's illusory promises of "21st Century
Socialism" and the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas),
Congress has the opportunity to assist and engage one of America's
closest friends in the Andean region and to strengthen an important
economic link. Failure to close the trade deal in 2008 will reflect
poorly on the reliability of the U.S. as a friend and partner in
the Americas.
- The Cuban regime relinquishes its iron grip on
power. That includes Fidel Castro, "First Brother" and
heir-apparent Raúl Castro, and the apparatchiks and secret
policemen of the Communist regime.After suffering 50 years of
revolutionary dictatorship and misrule, the Cuban people must be
granted the political and economic freedoms they desire and
deserve.
- Congress funds the "Merida Initiative." A bold
three-year program to provide U.S. counter-narcotics assistance to
Mexico and Central America, the Merida Initiative should become an
integral part of a stepped-up and cooperative fight by the U.S. and
Mexican governments against Mexican drug cartels and narco-terror
along America's southern border.
- U.S. ties with Brazil grow
stronger. Under the leadership of social democratic
President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, Brazil continues to
emerge as a regional powerhouse. From advancing international trade
negotiations to peacekeeping in Haiti, from successful social and
anti-poverty programs to the development of bio-fuels, the U.S. and
Brazil have many shared interests. Relations between Brasilia and
Washington are an important litmus test for the United States'
ability to construct a positive hemispheric agenda. Washington
should continue to seek opportunities to engage Brazil.
- In Bolivia and Ecuador, Presidents Morales and Correa
fail in their efforts to rewrite constitutions and disturb
long-established political traditions. Realistic balances
of political power in those countries should be strengthened, not
weakened. Hopefully, consensus and common sense will prevail
through peaceful political processes, without bloodshed and civil
strife.
- Mexican President Felipe Calderón takes
bold new steps to break up monopolies and powerful public
sector unions. If President Calderón succeeds in
his efforts to tackle the powerful and entrenched special interests
that control much of the Mexican economy (e.g. telecommunications,
oil production, and electrical generation), new jobs will lower the
incentive for Mexicans to enter the U.S. illegally in search of
work.
- Impediments to the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion
Agreement are removed. Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, Speaker of
the Panamanian National Assembly, is wanted in the U.S. for the
1992 murder of a U.S. Army soldier in Panama. Gonzalez's departure
will facilitate the TPA's full ratification by the U.S. and
Panamanian governments, which will benefit both countries.
- The Organization of American States (OAS) works harder
to implement the spirit of the Inter-American Democratic
Charter. Passed by OAS foreign ministers on September 11,
2001, the Democratic Charter recognizes a right to democracy for
all peoples of the Americas. As the world's oldest regional body,
the OAS needs to redouble its efforts to support and strengthen
representative government and the rule of law and to further
develop pluralistic political systems for all 35 members of the
OAS.
- Latin America sustains its record of positive economic growth (5.6 percent in 2006). Everyone from political leaders and elites to the masses of citizens in Latin America must demonstrate a mature ability to advance wide-ranging fiscal, commercial, labor, and educational reforms that will sustain long-term development. Economic growth, trade, and institutional reform-not confrontational politics, resource nationalism, or another burst of redistributionist populism-will remain in 2008 the best hope for lifting up the more than 200 million individuals trapped in chronic poverty in Latin America.
James M. Roberts is Research Fellow for Economic Freedom and Growth in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation. Ray Walser, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.