A top expert on terrorism in Europe says the threat facing our western allies is bigger and far more diverse than ever.
Robin Simcox, The Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Fellow, has studied terrorist groups targeting Europe for nearly a decade, advising governments across the continent on how to counter their activities. Next week, he will share some of his insights on how the European terror threat has evolved with members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
One fairly recent change, Simcox says, is that many European terrorists are now battle-hardened veterans. At least 5,000-6,000 Europeans who fought alongside ISIS and other Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq have since returned to their countries of origin.
“Members of the terrorist cell that launched the November 2015 attacks in Paris – killing 130 and wounding 368 – had fought and trained with ISIS in Syria, then returned to Europe to carry out the attacks,” Simcox observed. He also noted that the same cell contained ISIS members who made false asylum claims to enter Europe from Syria.
Compounding Europe’s problem of incoming terrorists is the growing phenomenon of homegrown radicals. To give an idea of the scale of this threat, Simcox noted that the UK has approximately 23,000 terror suspects on the radar, about 3,000 of whom are assessed as posing the “most imminent” threat.
“But assessments like that are never foolproof,” he warned. “There’s always the possibility that a Khalid Masood will slip through the net.” Masood, the Westminster Bridge attacker, who was on the radar but not thought to be an imminent danger.
Given the proliferation of terrorists—both returning, imported and homegrown—it is perhaps not surprising that their attacks are occurring more frequently and in more and more places. The number of documented terror plots hatched in Europe increased every year since 2014. And while most of those plots have been directed at Belgium, France, Germany and the UK, as of the end of May 2017, 11 other European countries have been targeted as well.
Complicating matters for those involved in counter-terrorism is the fact that it is impossible to build up a profile of who will carry out these attacks.
“It is not just young men,” Simcox said. “Khalid Masood was 52. Moreover, my research has found an uptick in plotting by teenagers and girls.
“Converts and those raised as Muslims, those with a criminal record and those without, those who are well educated and affluent and those who are not—all have planned attacks in Europe.”
The Foreign Affairs Committee will convene its joint subcommittee hearing on “Allies Under Attack: The Terrorist Threat to Europe” at 2 p.m., June 27, Room 2172 in the Rayburn House Office Building.
What does Simcox plan to leave as his “takeaway” message?
“It’s a pretty basic 1-2-3,” he says. “Islamist terrorism poses a grave danger to Europe. Its face and its methods are always evolving, but it is not going anywhere. The U.S. must work with our allies in Europe to help face it down.”
