Like Noah warning of the pending flood, the latest Medicare and
Social Security Trustees' reports were dire, warning the day of
reckoning draws nigh. As usual, though, Congress is ignoring the
gathering clouds while finding new ways to spend billions more on
entitlements.
Lawmakers are demanding real progress on benchmarks for the Iraqi
government. Perhaps the American people need to set benchmarks for
their own government on entitlements.
Bottom line: Social Security faces a financial abyss that deepened
by $200 billion over the last year, while Medicare's abyss grew by
$3.8 trillion. To give these figures some perspective, the combined
increase in the Medicare and Social Security shortfall is roughly
25 times larger than the latest forecast for the 2007 federal
budget deficit.
Congressional Budget Office directors also have sounded the
warning for years. The comptroller general and the director of the
Government Accountability Office recently upped the rhetoric with
an apocalyptic comparison to the fall of the Roman Empire. And
members of the think-tank community, from left to right, have
banded together in a national Fiscal Wake-Up Tour to explain the
issues. In short, the problem is not in dispute.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration's record on entitlements is
decidedly mixed. Whatever the policy merits of enacting the
Medicare prescription drug benefit in 2003, expanding Medicare and
deepening its massive financial hole was strikingly
irresponsible.
However, the president has since been fairly bold and somewhat
successful. Working with the Republican leadership in Congress he
pushed through the Deficit Reduction Act in 2005, for example,
shaving almost $51 billion over 10 years off the growth in Medicare
and Medicaid spending.
Following the 2004 elections the president pressed for personal
accounts, but he also argued to restore Social Security to solvency
through a handful of minor, phased-in changes. Democrats and many
Republicans made inaction on Social Security their top priority,
and they succeeded.
This year the president offered substantive proposals to slow
Medicare spending growth, including a proposal to reduce the
subsidy for higher-income beneficiaries of the new Medicare drug
program. These proposals would reduce the growth in Medicare by
$252 billion over the next 10 years, according to the trustees.
Over the next 75 years, a common point of reference for these
programs, the president's proposals would fill the Medicare abyss
by a quarter.
And Congress? Earlier this year the House and Senate developed
their budget marching orders for the coming year, providing the new
Democratic majorities' first real opportunity to show progress -
their first entitlement policy benchmark. They chose to do exactly
nothing. Congressional benchmark result: Unsatisfactory.
This Congress still has ample opportunity to recover, however. A
good benchmark Americans can use this fall to judge congressional
progress would be whether key committees, especially Senate Finance
and House Ways and Means, hold substantive hearings on possible
solutions for both Social Security and Medicare. This is the second
entitlement benchmark.
A third benchmark arises with next year's budget resolution.
Congress ignored the entitlement problems in this year's
resolution, but they can redeem themselves by requiring strong
action to reduce entitlement spending next year. The timing would
be good: Baby Boomers will start to retire and draw Social Security
benefits in 2008, marking the official beginning of the red-ink
threat.
Next spring the president is required by law to propose
improvements to Medicare's finances. Medicare is financed by a
combination of payroll tax receipts, premiums and general revenues.
The general revenue contribution to Medicare is now projected to
exceed 45 percent of total spending. The president must propose
changes to bring general-revenue support back below 45 percent.
Reforms that just meet this test would not, by themselves, solve
Medicare's financing problem, but they would represent progress. So
the fourth entitlement benchmark for Congress is to pass
legislation bringing general-revenue support back below 45
percent.
The fifth benchmark for this Congress will be passing legislation
the president can sign into law to make significant progress toward
Social Security solvency. Surely if Congress can hold the Iraqi
government to progress benchmarks in the Iraqis' attempts to craft
a working government out of chaos, Americans can hold Congress to
these five entitlement progress benchmarks to work toward solvency
for these programs vital to America's seniors.
JD Foster is the Norman B.
Ture senior fellow in the economics of fiscal policy at the
Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in the Washington Times