The Kazakh Parliament vote last week to allow President
Nursultan Nazarbayev to run for a fourth presidential term,
surprised Washington. The amendment is a part of a broader, largely
positive constitutional reform.
Kazakhstan has become in the last couple of years they key U.S.
partner in Eurasia and is a potential major oil exporter to the
global market, eventually larger than Kuwait or Iran. Despite some
raised eyebrows, Washington will continue working closely with Mr.
Nazarbayev, regardless who heads the next administration.
For oil companies, the Caspian is one of the top three global
priorities, after the Gulf and Russia. Too many U.S. interests are
at stake, such as maintaining Central Asia independence of Russian,
Chinese or radical Islamist dominance.
Effectively, the amendment extends Mr. Nazarbayev's chance of
remaining in power, if he so chooses, beyond 2012, when his third
term expires. With the term changing from seven to five years, he
may stay in power another 10 years, till 2017. Health allowing, he
will be 77 then.
President Nazarbayev has been for the last couple of years the
favorite American leader in Eurasia, calling for Iran to abandon
nuclear arms program, and providing steady energy supply to world
markets.
Vice President Dick Cheney on a trip to Kazakhstan last year
called the country "a key strategic partner of the United States."
Yet, critics with human-rights organizations continue criticizing
Kazakhstan for falling short of Euro-Atlantic democratic criteria.
They will undoubtedly oppose Kazakhstan's bid to become the
chairman of the Organizations for Security and Cooperation in
Europe in 2009.
Still, the international business and political community would
cautiously embrace the changes as a guarantee for a level playing
field, the rule of law and a liberal investment regime. This
reaffirms Kazakhstan's new statehood.
The new political reforms in the capital Astana are enhancing
political stability, while developing political institutions,
including the parliament and the parties. The new legislation
envisages a shift from a presidential to a
presidential-parliamentary republic by significantly increasing the
legislature's role. The political reform package for the first time
will require parliamentary majority approval of the prime minister
(and the Cabinet). The role of courts is also enhanced.
Constitutional changes also increase the role of the Assembly of
the People -- a unique instrument to preserve the religious and
ethnic peace and mutual tolerance of Kazakhstan's multi-ethnic and
multi-confessional society.
The proposed changes appear as a new stage of a steady and
continuous political reform, supervised by Mr. Nazarbayev.
Democracy development is no exact science. The Kazakh path may be a
better approach than some recent ventures into meaningless
elections in the guise of promoting democracy, which resulted in
unintended consequences like the rise of Muslim Brotherhood in
Egypt and the Hamas takeover of the Palestinian Authority in 2006.
In democracy development, elections should come after institutions
are built.
Yet, allowing for lifetime presidency for Mr. Nazarbayev opens the
door to some pitfalls, of which Mr. Nazarbayev, an experienced
politician, should be aware. For sure, his detractors will watch
like hawks. If he chooses to stay beyond 2012, his options range
from Lee Kwan Yu, the "inventor" and the father of Singapore, whom
he admires, to Deng Xiao-ping, the greatest Chinese emperor of the
last 400 years, who secured his succession and legacy, to the
tragic decline of Indonesia's Sukharto and Zimbabwe's Robert
Mugabe.
The future of Kazakhstan, with its unprecedented economic
development, looks bright. The country's gross domestic product
grew 75 percent over the last six years, with the stable annual
economic growth in the 10 percent range. Its bankers and
businessmen now invest in neighboring countries, and its economic
reforms and banking system have surpassed Russia's. Kazakhstan also
educates 3,000 of its best and brightest in the top schools around
the world. These young professionals then return to their homeland
to quickly assume positions of power in the government and
industry. The slogan is "Economy first, then politics."
Kazakhstan is an Asian, formerly nomadic, nominally Islamic (and
also Russian Orthodox) but mostly secular society. There was no
nation-state until 15 years ago and no tradition of formal
democracy until 1992. Yet it is developing and modernizing
impressively.
This current period of calm, economic prosperity and growth will
allow Kazakhstan to develop political institutions and allow
potential successors to build up their support base. However, the
Western policymakers and the business community hope the
succession, when it comes, will be orderly and based on
institutions and rules. Kazakhstan's opposition figures, part and
parcel of the current political system, should also be allowed to
compete. Developing the rule of law and fighting corruption should
be the key priority.
The true challenge and test of Kazakhstan is modernization and
development. This is the yardstick the current political reforms
and the life and times of President Nazarbayev will be measured
with.
Ariel Cohen is
senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He recently
visited Kazakhstan.
First appeared in the Washington Times