The expectations for this State of the Union were low. With the
media focused almost exclusively on the latest setback in Iraq,
Republicans in Congress distancing themselves from his new approach
to win the war there, and his public approval reaching new lows,
President Bush needed to deliver the most persuasive State of the
Union of his presidency.
While it certainly was not his finest rhetorical moment, President
Bush nevertheless delivered a forceful defense of the Bush
Doctrine, his prescription for victory in the war on terrorism. He
did this by elevating the discussion to the loftier plane of the
worldwide war. He began by reminding Americans of something that
the media conveniently ignores: that some aspects of the war on
terrorism have gone very well indeed.
"Our success in this war," Bush said, "is often measured by the
things that did not happen." And while we can never know with
certainty the full extent of the attacks that have been prevented
since September 11th, we do know that intelligence and law
enforcement officials here and overseas have disrupted numerous
terrorist plots. These victories include: an al Qaeda plot to fly a
hijacked airplane into the tallest building on the West Coast, a
Southeast Asian terrorist cell that was grooming operatives for
attacks inside the United States, an al Qaeda cell developing
anthrax for attacks in America, and, last August, a London plot to
blow up passenger planes bound for America over the Atlantic
Ocean.
Though he did not say so directly, the President wants the
American people, even as they may negatively evaluate his conduct
of the war in Iraq, to acknowledge something else: It is no
coincidence that five years have gone by with no additional
terrorist attacks on American soil.
Bush also deserves credit for elaborating on the true nature and
goals of our enemy. Al Qaeda subverts virtually every principle of
civilization -- including promising "paradise for the murder of the
innocent" -- to achieve its suicidal ideology. By killing and
terrorizing Americans, its goal is to "force our country to retreat
from the world and abandon the cause of liberty." With America in
retreat, al Qaeda's leaders would then be free "to spread their
totalitarian ideology."
The pinnacle of the speech came when Bush reiterated what has come
to be known as the "Bush Doctrine" and why he believes its success
is essential to American security:
This war is more than a clash of arms -- it is a decisive
ideological struggle, and the security of our Nation is in the
balance. To prevail, we must remove the conditions that inspire
blind hatred, and drove 19 men to get onto airplanes and come to
kill us. What every terrorist fears most is human freedom --
societies where men and women make their own choices, answer to
their own conscience, and live by their hopes instead of their
resentments. Free people are not drawn to violent and malignant
ideologies -- and most will choose a better way when they are given
a chance. So we advance our own security interests by helping
moderates, reformers, and brave voices for democracy.
Anticipating the grueling congressional debates ahead, Bush faced
his critics and defined the stakes in that debate in terms of
America's security. "The great question of our day," he concluded,
"is whether America will help men and women in the Middle East to
build free societies and share in the rights of all humanity. And I
say, for the sake of our own security...we must."
Two domestic initiatives stood out tonight, one conservatives will
rate positively and one that will inspire a near unanimous
thumbs-down.
First, Bush wants to end the long practice providing massive tax
benefits to those who obtain health insurance at their place of
work -- a subsidy estimated to exceed $206 billion in 2006, one and
a half times as large as the value of the home mortgage deduction
-- and next to no tax subsidies for those who purchase health
coverage individually. He proposes to level the playing field
through the creation of a standard tax deduction for the purchase
of health coverage, to be set at $7,500 for individuals and $15,000
for families. Workers without health coverage would be able to
purchase plans and deduct the cost up to the limits against their
federal and state income taxes as well as their payroll taxes.
Workers with employer-provided coverage that exceeds these limits
would face a choice: either pay tax on the excess amount or ask
their employer to reduce the cost of the plan and shift the
difference to them in the form of higher wages.
Though fully 80 percent of workers stand to gain from this
proposal (the cost of family coverage averages about $11,000),
liberals who believe that individual ownership of health coverage
dooms the prospects for government-run health care struck fast and
furiously. "Under the guise of tax breaks," Representative Pete
Stark (D-CA), the new chairman of the House Ways and Means Health
subcommittee, warned, "the President is pursuing a policy designed
to destroy the employer-based health care system through which 160
million people receive coverage." Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) also
lambasted the President's plan. "I am concerned that taxing health
benefits will undermine the good coverage that many Americans
already have." Ironically, in their criticism, two of the leading
liberals in Congress came to the defense of one of the most
regressive provisions in the tax code.
Among conservatives, the President's plan threaded the needle,
winning plaudits from conservative health and tax experts alike.
The editors of The National Review summed up this synergy -- the
most successful effort at conservative "fusionism" in a long time
-- succinctly: "If enacted, it would be the boldest free-market
health-care reform ever, and the biggest step toward tax reform in
years."
While the prospects for this plan may appear slim given the new
arrangement in Congress, Democrats have pledged to move legislation
to reduce the ranks of the uninsured. Once that process unfolds,
the President's plan or a similar one authored by Sen. Mel Martinez
(R.-Fla.) could emerge as a viable alternative.
The other new presidential initiative -- bestowing greater
government subsidies on alternative sources of energy to achieve
energy independence -- received a more negative reception in
conservative circles.
The President's proposal begins with a credible premise: America's
dependence on foreign oil raises fundamental questions of national
security. It "leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to
terrorists -- who could cause huge disruptions of oil
shipments...raise the price of oil...and do great harm to our
economy." Indeed, "it is in our vital interest to diversify
America's energy supply." And the way to secure that vital
interest, he insisted, is through technology: "America is on the
verge of technological breakthroughs that will enable us to live
our lives less dependent on oil."
While the President made passing mention of the need to build more
nuclear power plants and "step up domestic oil production in
environmentally sensitive ways," he reserved his real passion for
alternative forms of energy like clean coal, solar, wind, plug-in
and hybrid vehicles, biodiesel fuel, and ethanol -- this latter
derived, as he put it, from things like wood chips, grasses, and
agriculturalwastes.
Specifically, he proposed quintupling the current target for
renewable and alternative fuels by 2017 -- to 35 billion gallons.
The President would also "reform and modernize" (not, in his words,
"mandate") fuel economy standards for cars, with the goal of
conserving 8.5 billion gallons of gasoline by 2017.
It is hard to imagine any free market energy expert embracing this
plan. But it need not have been so one-sided. For example, he could
have proposed a quid pro quo for ethanol producers and corn
growers, asking them to give up the 51-cent tax credit and other
tax code inducements for ethanol in exchange for the expanded
mandate. To spur competition and guard against possible shortages,
America will have to end the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff and 2.5
percent duty imposed on most imports of foreign ethanol. And
America will also have to end all corn subsidies, which totaled
$9.4 billion in 2005.
Will the alternative fuels gambit work? Recent studies suggest
not. According to David Pimentel of Cornell University and Tad
Patzek of the University of California-Berkeley, the process of
making ethanol from corn requires 29 percent more fossil energy
than the ethanol fuel itself actually contains. Ethanol, they
found, contains about 76,000 BTUs per gallon. But producing that
ethanol from corn requires about 98,000 BTUs. In contrast, a gallon
of gasoline contains about 116,000 BTUs per gallon. Making a gallon
of gas -- from drilling the well, to transportation, through
refining -- requires only 22,000 BTUs.
As Matthew Wald wrote in the current issue of Scientific American,
absent major improvements in industrial processing, "ethanol will
remain a cumbersome product with little net benefit, and the
country will remain dependent on foreign oil." This is the likely
outcome of this flawed proposal.
Michael Franc is vice president of government relations for The Heritage Foundation (heritage.org).
First appeared in Human Events