Some see it as a NATO counterweight. Others call it a Club for Dictators - or at least near-dictators. Some consider it an anti-American stalking horse for Chinese and or Russian hegemony, with the potential to become "OPEC with nukes."
Whatever: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) - a
so-called "anti-terrorism, anti-separatism, anti-extremism"
grouping, including China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which holds its fifth annual meeting
this week - definitely reeks of trouble for Uncle Sam.
Start with this: The "anti-terrorism" SCO has given observer
status to Iran, the world's top state sponsor of terrorism -
including an annual convention of just about every terror group on
the planet.
Then consider the wider strategic implications. Beijing and Moscow
are using the SCO as a tool to eliminate U.S. influence in the
Eurasian heartland - the home to half the world's population, a key
front in the War on Terror and the location of key world energy
supplies.
The SCO formally agreed at last year's summit to reverse America's
post-9/11 military presence in Central Asia. Soon after, Uzbekistan
closed Karshi Khanabad airbase to U.S. forces. Now the rulers of
Extortistan - er, Kyrgyzstan - are trying to raise the price of the
U.S. lease on Manas airbase rent from $2 million to $200 million a
year.
The United States has asked to participate in some meaningful way
in the SCO since 2005, such as observing meetings or military
exercises - and been flatly denied.
The SCO has offered observer status to India and Pakistan as well
as Iran, and discussed full-membership for all. Iran and Pakistan
are keen to join - and may be offered the chance later this
year.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may push for membership at
this week's session - it would help scuttle U.S. and European Union
pressure over Tehran's nuclear program. (He's unlikely to get the
green light - just yet.)
In many regards, he'd fit right in: You won't hear any awkward
questions about democracy or human rights at the SCO - not a peep
about oppressed Uighurs, Tibetans and Chechens, or about last
year's crackdown in Andijan, Uzbekistan.
As Beijing and Moscow see it, keeping authoritarians in power in
Central Asia (and elsewhere) not only ensures stability along the
two powers' periphery, it also helps silence those annoying calls
for greater political and social freedom at home.
Then there's the security angle. A quick glance at the map shows
that Muslim Central Asia is in China and Russia's backyard. Some
might even call it their soft underbelly - one that needs
protecting, especially from Islamic extremism.
In April, the SCO announced "anti-terrorism" exercises next year
in Russia. According to Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of China's
Central Military Commission, these will demonstrate the SCO's
growing role in maintaining regional security.
The $64,000 question - of course - is how much further will the
Chinese-dominated SCO's regional-security role grow?
But security interests extend beyond Central Asia, too. Beijing
would like to use the SCO's "anti-separatist" provision,
particularly with the backing of Russia, to dissuade Taiwan from
declaring independence - and deter U.S. intervention.
Russia's Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is none too happy with
Washington, democratic revolutions or NATO expansion (especially to
include Ukraine). Russia may be looking to create a "new and
improved" Asian Warsaw Pact, wielding large armies, big economies,
nukes - and lots of oil/gas.
Don't forget economics. Central Asia has massive oil and natural
gas reserves - and with nervous consumers looking beyond the
volatile Middle East, it's in Russia and China's interest that
Central Asian oil/gas flows either east to China, or west through
Russia. A 1,000-kilometer oil pipeline is already operating from
Kazakhstan to China; a gas pipeline and joint ventures are under
consideration. Non-SCO member Turkmenistan has just signed a
similar oil-pipeline agreement with China.
What's Uncle Sam to do? First, keep the SCO from cementing as a
full-on alliance. Remind the smaller fry that their history
includes long periods of Russian/Chinese domination - and that the
embrace of the Bear or the Dragon can mean years of
"unpleasantness."
Next, become the region's "third big neighbor," cherry-picking SCO
partners off through high-level visits, security assistance (e.g.,
joint exercises/training) and energy cooperation (e.g., opening
Caspian transit routes).
Moscow and Beijing are using the SCO to advance their influence
across the Eurasian heartland, and to create a "new international
political and economic order" to their liking - with little room
for free markets and even less for free thought. If the United
States (and other free nations - hello, India, Europe and Japan)
don't answer up, it's not just U.S. influence that will get shut
out, but democracy and economic access as well.
Peter
Brookes, a senior fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, is the author of "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD
and Rogue States."
First appeared in the New York Post