Sometimes the biggest stories don't make the newspaper.
Earlier this month, the trustees of the Social Security and
Medicare trust funds issued their annual report on the future of
the programs -- to little fanfare. Yet the report merits large
headlines. It's important. And it's grim.
The trustees report that the two programs have promised $37
trillion more in benefits than they can deliver. In years to come,
these entitlements are set to eat up shocking amounts of tax
income.
One of the trustees estimates that, unless we fix these programs
now, more than a quarter of all federal income taxes in 2020 will
be spent on Social Security and Medicare benefits. That's up from
about 7 percent today, in addition to the more than $764 billion in
payroll taxes in 2005, to fund the two programs. By 2030, roughly
half of all income taxes would be needed to keep these two programs
afloat.
The trustees also report that the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust
fund will run out of money by 2018, two years earlier than they
projected just last year. Since we allowed 2005 to pass without
doing anything, this means we've actually lost three years that
could have been used to fix the program. That fact alone should
spur lawmakers to act.
Unfortunately, the most recent attempt at reform made the problem
worse. In 2003, lawmakers tacked an open-ended prescription-drug
entitlement onto Medicare, an expansion the trustees say will cost
$8 trillion over the next 75 years.
It's time for Congress and the administration to change Medicare
from today's open-ended entitlement to a defined-contribution
program, one that adjusts contributions for age, health costs and
income.
None of that will be easy politically, of course. But if lawmakers
won't do something now, they'll have to do something in five years,
or in 2018 when Medicare goes into the red. And the sooner they
act, the more choices they'll have.
Social Security presents a similar problem.
The trustees report that program will continue to collect more in
taxes each year than it will spend on benefits until 2017. But at
that point, it will become a major drain on the Treasury, because
it will start redeeming the special government bonds in the Social
Security trust fund. Because there's no actual cash in that trust
fund, the government will have to use general revenues -- such as
income taxes -- to pay those benefits.
The crunch, in fact, will hit earlier than that. Around 2009, the
roughly $100 billion annual Social Security surpluses, a cash
cushion Congress has been spending on other programs, will begin to
shrink. By 2017, those surpluses will be gone for good.
Think of the trust fund kid who spends his parents' money on
frivolous things until the fund eventually dries up. That's the
prospect facing the federal government within about 15 years, when
today's annual Social Security surplus will turn into a $100
billion annual deficit -- a $200 billion reversal.
To head off the problem, lawmakers should allow workers to start
saving money in Social Security personal retirement accounts that
they would own and control. This would let younger workers build a
nest egg for their own retirement and wouldn't reduce the benefits
already promised to Social Security recipients born before
1950.
Many predictions come with a caveat: Maybe they'll happen, maybe
they won't. Hurricane season is like that. This year may bring
another Katrina, or we may escape without a major storm making
landfall. But one storm we know is coming is the shortfall in
Social Security and Medicare. The only way to keep that story off
the front pages in years to come is to fix the problems now. Time
is running out.
Edwin
Feulner is president of The Heritage Foundation
(heritage.org), a Washington-based public policy research institute
and co-author of the new book Getting
America Right.
First Appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times